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Heuristic Pathologies and Further Variance Reduction via Uncertainty Propagation in the AIVAT Family of Techniques

arXiv cs.AI · 2026-05-15 Cached

This paper identifies vulnerabilities in the AIVAT variance reduction technique when the heuristic value function is not fixed prior to evaluation, and shows how to propagate heuristic uncertainty to further reduce variance, achieving a 43% reduction in the number of samples needed for statistical conclusions.

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