Dirt cheap GPUs coming next year
Summary
作者预测明年 GPU 价格将大幅下跌，理由包括数据中心建设放缓、Neoclouds 融资困难、AI 采用不及预期，以及小模型已能处理大部分请求，GB300 单机架即可承载 OpenRouter 上 DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 的全部流量。
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作者预测本地AI推理的普及将在2026年推动消费级GPU和硬件价格全面上涨，DeepSeek-V4-Flash、Qwen-3.8等模型将让老旧GPU（如3090、P40、V100等）重焕生产力，甚至旗舰手机也能参与本地推理。
@xiaomustock: A structural demand gap for CPUs is inevitable, similar to the storage market in 2026. Currently, the CPU to GPU configuration demand ratio is 1/8, but as AI model companies enter the AI agent space, the demand for high-end CPUs driven by agent needs will surge to 1/1 within 2-3 quarters. An eightfold increase in demand, and high-end CPU production capacity is completely unable to keep up.
The article predicts that due to a surge in AI agent demand, high-end CPUs will experience a structural shortage within 2-3 quarters, leading to significant price increases, similar to the storage market trend in 2026.
Why the first GPU financiers are turning to inference chips in a $400 million deal
General Compute secured a $400M loan from Upper90 using inference-specific SambaNova chips as collateral, signaling a shift in AI infrastructure financing toward cheaper, more efficient inference hardware amid growing demand for open-source models.
@FinanceYF5: Neoclouds that only rent GPUs end up competing purely on price — and that's a race to the bottom on margins. Renting GPUs is no longer scarce. Shoe company Allbirds, telecoms, former bitcoin miners, AI labs, and even video sites are all offering compute now. The Neoclouds that are truly ahead are competing for a new edge: raising the switching cost for customers through software.
Neoclouds are moving beyond pure GPU rental and building moats by acquiring software companies, because renting compute alone is no longer scarce and inevitably leads to price wars. Nscale, Nebius, IREN, CoreWeave, Crusoe and others are all making acquisitions to boost customer stickiness and product differentiation.
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DeepSeek announced a significant API price hike, and analysis suggests the move goes beyond GPU cost pass-through to reflect broader market shifts toward value-based pricing and open-source ecosystem pressures.