@TaoRay: Google's earnings actually point to a bigger macro issue. As I often say, AI's boost to productivity is linear, and the so-called explosion in total factor productivity is pure fiction. The current boom remains highly concentrated in the shovel-selling industry, and beyond driving investment, it's actually squeezing other parts of the economy — stoking inflation, pushing up raw material prices, and suppressing demand...

Google’s earnings report actually points to larger macroeconomic issues. As I’ve often said, AI’s impact on productivity is linear — the so-called explosion in total factor productivity is pure fiction. The current boom remains highly concentrated in the shovel-selling industry. Beyond the investment-driven effects, it’s even squeezing other parts of the economy — driving inflation, pushing up raw material prices, and suppressing demand — which will deepen the K-shaped divergence. (You can already see this in the divergent performance across Google’s different business segments, and in the coming earnings season, you’ll find Google is not an outlier.)

This means we need to look at things from two angles. First, the second step in the “two phases, three steps” framework cannot be skipped. There will inevitably be macro factors that put broad pressure on the market. That’s exactly why I’ve been saying that current opportunities are all phased opportunities within the first step — “wide-range oscillation and seesaw-style trading.” You must manage position sizes, take profits when appropriate, and the overarching principle is to build up cash reserves.

But from the second angle — while Google’s earnings reflect macro issues, as a “cash cow,” it’s not expensive and will command an additional premium during the third step’s divergence phase. And precisely because, as we’ve said, the further we go, the more we’ll realize this is a macro problem and Google is not an outlier — Google as an undervalued cash cow becomes even more attractive. So a pullback in the bull market is an opportunity to add positions. Of course, the overarching principle remains maintaining overall cash levels — especially ensuring our cash position keeps growing, not shrinking.

In the “5 sector opportunities” I outlined during the last member space, the 2nd and 4th sectors have already gained around 20%. So I’ve taken partial profits on those positions and used the proceeds to add to Google.