From Canopy to Collision: A Hybrid Predictive Framework for Identifying Risk Factors in Tree-Involved Traffic Crashes
Summary
This study presents a hybrid predictive framework using CatBoost and SHAP to identify risk factors in tree-involved traffic crashes, highlighting restraint non-use as the most critical predictor of severe injury.
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# From Canopy to Collision: A Hybrid Predictive Framework for Identifying Risk Factors in Tree-Involved Traffic Crashes Source: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06684](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06684) [View PDF](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.06684) > Abstract:Tree\-involved crashes represent a critical subset of run\-off\-road \(ROR\) collisions, often resulting in fatal or severe injuries due to high\-energy impacts\. This study develops a comprehensive analytical framework to identify and quantify risk factors contributing to crash severity in tree\-involved collisions using the Crash Report Sampling System \(CRSS\) database spanning 2020\-2023\. The modeling framework follows a multi\-step process\. First, a machine learning based classification model \(CatBoost\) identifies key factors associated with binary crash injury severity \(KA: fatal or incapacitating injury versus BC: non\-incapacitating or possible injury\)\. Second, SHapley Additive exPlanations \(SHAP\) tool is used to quantify and visualize the marginal effects of top influential factors on crash severity\. Third, a binary logistic regression model estimates factor effects and validates SHAP\-derived importance measures\. Finally, SHAP interaction plots examine the combined effects of key contributing factors\. Results reveal restraint non\-use as the most influential predictor, with unrestrained occupants nearly three times more likely to experience severe outcomes due to ejection risk\. Vehicle age, speeding violations, and driver impairment demonstrate substantial effects, reflecting reduced crashworthiness, increased impact forces, and reduced control capabilities\. Critical interactions emerge between lighting conditions and vehicle age, speeding and lighting conditions, restraint use and vehicle age, and road surface and speeding, demonstrating additive risk effects with specific interactions\. These findings provide critical insights for targeted safe system\-based interventions, including enhanced seat belt enforcement, speed management in reduced visibility conditions, and vehicle fleet modernization\. ## Submission history From: Abdul Azim \[[view email](https://arxiv.org/show-email/a0d86543/2605.06684)\] **\[v1\]**Sat, 25 Apr 2026 20:25:27 UTC \(1,452 KB\)
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