思维是否有助于公平性？Reasoning Tokens虽解决部分偏见，却制造更多

# Does Thinking Help Fairness?Reasoning Tokens Resolve Some Biases but Create More
Source: [https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768)
Joe GerminoAffiliation:University of Notre DameEmail:[jgermino@nd\.edu](mailto:)Yihong MaAffiliation:University of Notre DameEmail:[yihongma97@gmail\.com](mailto:)Elizabeth DalyAffiliation:IBM Research, DublinEmail:[elizabeth\.daly@ie\.ibm\.com](mailto:)Nuno MonizAffiliation:University of Notre DameEmail:[nunomoniz@nd\.edu](mailto:)Ting HuaAffiliation:University of Notre DameEmail:[thua@nd\.edu](mailto:)Nitesh ChawlaAffiliation:University of Notre DameEmail:[nchawla@nd\.edu](mailto:)

###### Abstract

Thinking in reasoning language models \(RLMs\) has been subject to debate on whether it resolves or amplifies bias\. Prior works have shown competing conclusions in both directions\. Using a within\-model thinking\-vs\.\-non\-thinking ablation across QwQ\-32B, DeepSeek\-R1\-Distill\-Qwen\-32B, and Qwen3\-32B on three high\-stakes decision tasks \(Adult, COMPAS, Credit\), we show that thinking has an asymmetric dual effect on counterfactual fairness: it both resolves counterfactual flips produced by the non\-thinking baseline and creates new flips at near\-saturating model confidence\. In all nine \(model, dataset\) combinations, the created flips outnumber the resolved flips by roughly5×5\\times\. To explain the effect, we treat the thinking trace itself as a measurable site of fairness change and study it through two dynamic instruments: 1\) We propose Counterfactual Depth Probability Gap \(CDPG\) to track bias evolution along thinking depth, and observe that bias propagates and amplifies with thinking\. 2\) We also formulate the Bias Transition Matrix \(BTM\) to show how predictions of counterfactual pairs change from non\-thinking to thinking, and find that the asymmetric dual effect originates in the pair\-state joint transition\.111Code, prompts, and all model outputs are released at[https://github\.com/pd90506/fairness\_audit](https://github.com/pd90506/fairness_audit)\.

## 1Introduction

Reasoning language models \(RLMs\) are increasingly deployed in high\-stakes decision pipelines, in part because their visible*thinking traces*, enclosed in<think\>…</think\>tags, are advertised as making deliberation transparent and auditable\([Guo et al\., 2025](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib1);[Yang et al\., 2025](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib2);[Team, 2025](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib3);[Zhao et al\., 2024](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib18)\)\. These deployments raise immediate fairness concerns: LLM decisions reproduce historical disparities along protected attributes, and any deliberative step that intervenes between input and decision is itself a locus of fairness risk\([Tamkin et al\., 2023](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib14);[Gallegos et al\., 2024](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib16);[Caton and Haas, 2024](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib15)\)\. Whether the thinking phase mitigates these disparities or amplifies them is a critical question that needs to be addressed\.

Prior work reaches opposing conclusions on this question, ultimately because the studies in conflict measure different fairness concepts on different tasks\. One line reports that explicit thinking reduces bias on aggregate stereotype probes\([Kabra et al\., 2025](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib9)\); a related implicit\-association reading\([Apsel and Jones, 2026](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib10)\)measures bias via Implicit Association Test \(IAT\) style instruments and similarly argues for a reducing effect\. A second line reports that thinking amplifies bias on stereotype QA benchmarks\([Wu et al\., 2025](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib7)\)\. There is also a parallel line of study on adversarial injection, which shows that adversarial prompts can plant bias inside the trace\([Cantini et al\., 2025](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib8);[Turpin et al\., 2023](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib6)\)\.

Thinking ArmQaQ^\{a\}age 56, tech support,local\-gov, bachelor’ssex = Male“Putting it all together:it’s possible his salary is around $50K or slightly above\.So I might lean towards ‘Yes’\.”YesPa=0\.83P^\{a\}\{=\}0\.83Qa′Q^\{a^\{\\prime\}\}age 56, tech support,local\-gov, bachelor’ssex = Female“Wait, but she’s in Local\-gov\. Public sector salaries are often lower than private\.So even with a Bachelors, her salary might be lower\.… So maybe the answer is No\.”NoPa′=0\.01P^\{a^\{\\prime\}\}\{=\}0\.01CDPGK\\mathrm\{CDPG\}\_\{K\}=0\.82=0\.82Non\-thinking ArmQaQ^\{a\}YesQa′Q^\{a^\{\\prime\}\}Yes

Figure 1:Anatomy of a cell\-ccpair \(bias created by thinking\)\.Qwen3\-32B on Adult\. The two sides agree under the non\-thinking arm but diverge under thinking \(CDPGK=0\.82\\mathrm\{CDPG\}\_\{K\}\{=\}0\.82\); highlighted spans are the bias\-relevant phrasing\.Mixed conclusions on the same question leave practitioners without a defensible standard for deploying RLMs in fairness\-sensitive settings\. We argue that the disagreement runs deeper than metric choice: all prior audits evaluate only the final prediction, leaving the thinking process itself unexamined\. Instead, we study the*dynamics*ofhow bias propagatesduring thinking\.

Across three open\-weight3232B\-class RLMs and three tabular decision tasks, an outcome\-level audit reveals an*asymmetric dual effect*in all 9/9 \(model, dataset\) scenarios: thinking creates roughly5×5\\timesmore new counterfactual bias pairs than it resolves\. Figure[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S1.F1)sketches a concrete instance: a counterfactual pair that agrees without thinking but diverges under thinking, with the trace revealing gender\-biased reasoning\.

To explain this asymmetry, we propose two complementary dynamic instruments: Counterfactual Depth Probability Gap \(CDPG\) to audit bias propagation during thinking, and Bias Transition Matrix \(BTM\) to track instance\-level bias evolution from non\-thinking to thinking\. CDPG reveals that bias propagates and amplifies with thinking depth; BTM reveals that the asymmetry originates in the pair\-state joint transition\.

#### Contributions\.

1. 1\.Weidentify an asymmetric dual effectof thinking on counterfactual fairness: across all nine \(model, dataset\) settings, thinking simultaneously resolves a subset of counterfactual flips produced by non\-thinking inference and creates roughly5×5\\timesmore new flips at high confidence\. \(§[4\.2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.SS2)\)
2. 2\.Wepropose two dynamic instruments, Counterfactual Depth Probability Gap \(CDPG\) and Bias Transition Matrix \(BTM\), to surface structure invisible to outcome\-only audits\. \(§[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3)\)
3. 3\.Wereveal an anchor/mover dynamicwithin the thinking trace: one side of a counterfactual pair maintains its initial prediction while the other drifts toward the opposite boundary, explaining how thinking sharpens both fair and biased outcomes in lockstep\. \(§[4\.3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.SS3)\)
4. 4\.Wetrace the structural origin of the dual effectto the pair\-state joint transition: the group\-level transition is nearly identical across protected sides, but the pair\-state transition is asymmetric, and that asymmetry drives creation to outweigh resolution\. \(§[4\.4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.SS4)\)

## 2Related Work

### 2\.1Fairness audits of LLMs

Empirical fairness audits of LLMs descend from two distinct traditions\. Group\-level audits operationalise demographic\-parity and equalised\-odds criteria from algorithmic fairness\([Hardt et al\., 2016](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib11)\), consolidated for LLMs in recent surveys\([Gallegos et al\., 2024](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib16)\)\. Counterfactual audits compare an instance’s outcome under different values of a protected attribute\([Garg et al\., 2019](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib12);[Tamkin et al\., 2023](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib14)\)\. We take counterfactual disagreement as the primary signal and report group fairness alongside it to expose where the two diagnostics agree and where they diverge\.

### 2\.2Competing reports on reasoning and fairness

On\-topic prior work falls into three lines: two camps that disagree on the directional effect of thinking on fairness \(mitigation vs\. amplification\), and a separate line on deliberate bias injection\.

#### Thinking as bias mitigation\.

This line reports that explicit thinking reduces bias\.[Kabra et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib9)report that reasoning\-trained models exhibit lower stereotypical bias on standard benchmarks, reading the change as a net reduction\. The implicit\-association reading of[Apsel and Jones \(2026\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib10)is adjacent but conceptually distinct: it measures implicit bias in the IAT sense rather than explicit decision\-level bias\.[Cherepanova et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib23)use CoT self\-refinement as one of four interventions to improve demographic parity on tabular fairness datasets, illustrating that CoT can be used as a deliberate mitigation lever\.

#### Thinking as bias amplification\.

This line reports that thinking amplifies bias\.[Shaikh et al\. \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib5)show that zero\-shot chain\-of\-thought prompting elevates harmful and stereotypical generation on socially sensitive questions relative to a no\-CoT baseline\.[Wu et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib7)report the same direction on BBQ stereotype QA\([Parrish et al\., 2022](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib25)\)for reasoning models\.[Karvonen and Marks \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib22)run a counterfactual hiring audit on a reasoning\-trained model and find 10–12% interview\-rate disparities across race and gender, with the disparity hidden inside the CoT trace\.[Moore et al\. \(2024\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib24)extend counterfactual prompting to CoT on general\-purpose LLMs \(not reasoning models\) and find that CoT alone fails to mitigate, and can reinforce, base\-rate\-driven cross\-group bias\.

#### Adversarial paradigm: bias injection \(out of scope\)\.

A separate line probes how reasoning models behave once bias has been deliberately implanted via jailbreak prompts or injected biasing features\([Cantini et al\., 2025](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib8);[Turpin et al\., 2023](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib6)\); we treat it as out of scope since it characterises implanted rather than emergent bias\.

The opposing conclusions of the mitigation and amplification camps motivate a finer\-grained probing of the thinking process itself, to understand the mechanism by which thinking can both mitigate bias in some cases and amplify it in others\.

### 2\.3Probing reasoning trace dynamics

Probing methods treat the trace itself as a measurable object\.[Lanham et al\. \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib4)introduce prefix\-truncation probing as a faithfulness test for chain\-of\-thought \(“early answering”\): the trace is truncated at varying lengths and the model is re\-prompted for an answer at each truncation, testing whether the stated reasoning is causally load\-bearing on the final answer\.[Wu et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib7)apply the same prefix\-truncation construction to stereotype QA on BBQ: they re\-complete truncated reasoning prefixes and detect within\-trace answer shifts as a bias proxy, then use those shifts as a re\-voting signal\. Our bias\-propagation instrument \(§[3\.3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.SS3)\) builds on this prefix\-truncation construction, and our pair\-state transition matrix \(§[3\.4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.SS4)\) complements it by characterising the nothink\-to\-think joint dynamics at the pair level\.

## 3Methods

### 3\.1Fairness Definitions

We take counterfactual disagreement as the primary fairness signal\. A counterfactual pair\(xi​\(A=α\),xi​\(A=α′\)\)\(x\_\{i\}\(A=\\alpha\),x\_\{i\}\(A=\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\)\)consists of two instances that differ only in the protected attributeAA\. We quantify disagreement on each pair in two ways\. The hardcounterfactual flip rate

𝒟cf\\displaystyle\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{cf\}\}=1N∑i𝟏\[y^i\(α\)≠y^i\(α′\)\]\\displaystyle=\\tfrac\{1\}\{N\}\\sum\_\{i\}\\mathbf\{1\}\\bigl\[\\hat\{y\}\_\{i\}\(\\alpha\)\\neq\\hat\{y\}\_\{i\}\(\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\)\\bigr\]\(1\)counts the fraction of pairs whose binary predictions disagree\. The softcounterfactual disparity

𝒟disp\(i\)\\displaystyle\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}^\{\(i\)\}=\|P⁡\(y^=1∣xi​\(α\)\)−P⁡\(y^=1∣xi​\(α′\)\)\|\\displaystyle=\\bigl\|P\(\\hat\{y\}\{=\}1\\mid x\_\{i\}\(\\alpha\)\)\-P\(\\hat\{y\}\{=\}1\\mid x\_\{i\}\(\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\)\)\\bigr\|\(2\)is the per\-pair probability gap; we read it at the end of the thinking trace through\|CDPGK\(i\)\|\|\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{K\}^\{\(i\)\}\|\(§[3\.3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.SS3)\)\. We follow[Garg et al\. \(2019\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib12)and[Tamkin et al\. \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib14)in operationalising counterfactual fairness as prompt\-level substitution of the protected attribute\.

Thegroup disparity\([Hardt et al\., 2016](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib11);[Bird et al\., 2020](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib17);[Gallegos et al\., 2024](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib16)\)is the demographic\-parity difference between two protected\-attribute populations,

𝒟group\\displaystyle\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}=\|P⁡\(y^=1∣gi\)−P⁡\(y^=1∣gj\)\|\.\\displaystyle=\\bigl\|P\(\\hat\{y\}\{=\}1\\mid g\_\{i\}\)\-P\(\\hat\{y\}\{=\}1\\mid g\_\{j\}\)\\bigr\|\.\(3\)Counterfactual fairness and group fairness capture different harms and can conflict\.

### 3\.2Within\-pair Contingency Cells

The contingency cells defined here are our primary instrument for surfacing the asymmetric dual effect of thinking on counterfactual fairness \(§[4\.2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.SS2)\)\. For each counterfactual pair we cross\-tabulate the flip indicator under thinking against the flip indicator under the within\-model non\-thinking arm\. The resulting four cells are labelled\{a,b,c,d\}\\\{a,b,c,d\\\}\(Table[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.T1)\): cellaacontains pairs with no flip in either arm; cellbbcontains pairs flipped under non\-thinking but agreeing under thinking, the*flips resolved by thinking*; cellcccontains pairs flipped under thinking but agreeing under non\-thinking, the*flips created by thinking*; cellddcontains pairs flipped under both arms\. Figure[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S1.F1)illustrates a concrete cell\-ccinstance: a counterfactual pair that agrees under the non\-thinking arm but diverges under thinking, with the trace itself surfacing biased reasoning\.

Think*no flip**flip*No\-think*no flip*aa: both agreecc: created*flip*bb: resolveddd: both flipTable 1:Within\-pair contingency cells\.Each counterfactual pair is classified by whether a flip \(y^a≠y^a′\\hat\{y\}^\{a\}\\neq\\hat\{y\}^\{a^\{\\prime\}\}\) occurs under the thinking and non\-thinking arms\.
### 3\.3Bias Propagation Tool:CDPGk\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}

The Counterfactual Depth Probability Gap at depthkk,CDPGk\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}, is our instrument for observing how counterfactual bias evolves along thinking depth: a per\-pair signal that quantifies the counterfactual decision gap after the firstkksegments of the thinking trace\. The construction adapts the prefix\-truncation probing scaffold of[Lanham et al\. \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib4), originally applied as an early\-answering faithfulness test on chain\-of\-thought, to counterfactually paired inputs\.

For a counterfactual query pair\(Qα,Qα′\)\(Q^\{\\alpha\},Q^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\)with thinking tracesTαT^\{\\alpha\}andTα′T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}, we partition each trace intoK=10K\{=\}10equal\-token segments,Tα=\(S1α,…,SKα\)T^\{\\alpha\}=\(S^\{\\alpha\}\_\{1\},\\ldots,S^\{\\alpha\}\_\{K\}\)and likewise forTα′T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\. For each depthk∈\{1,…,K\}k\\in\\\{1,\\ldots,K\\\}and attribute valueA∈\{α,α′\}A\\in\\\{\\alpha,\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\\\}we re\-feed the prefix\(QA,S1:kA,suffix\)\(Q^\{A\},S^\{A\}\_\{1:k\},\\text\{suffix\}\)to the model, where the suffix is the answer\-elicitation template that closes the thinking block and opens the answer position \(Appendix[E](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A5)\)\. At the answer position we extract the logits for the<Yes\>and<No\>tokens only and apply softmax over this pair \(not over the full vocabulary\), giving

Pkα\\displaystyle P^\{\\alpha\}\_\{k\}=P\(y^=1∣Qα,S1:kα\),\\displaystyle=P\(\\hat\{y\}\{=\}1\\mid Q^\{\\alpha\},S^\{\\alpha\}\_\{1:k\}\),\(4\)Pkα′\\displaystyle P^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\_\{k\}=P\(y^=1∣Qα′,S1:kα′\)\.\\displaystyle=P\(\\hat\{y\}\{=\}1\\mid Q^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\},S^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\_\{1:k\}\)\.\(5\)and the per\-pair, per\-depth signal

CDPGk\(i\)\\displaystyle\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}^\{\(i\)\}=Pkα−Pkα′\.\\displaystyle=P^\{\\alpha\}\_\{k\}\-P^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\_\{k\}\.\(6\)Atk=Kk\{=\}K,\|CDPGK\(i\)\|\|\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{K\}^\{\(i\)\}\|equals the thinking\-arm per\-pair counterfactual disparity𝒟disp\(i\)\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}^\{\(i\)\}, so thek=1:Kk\{=\}1\{:\}Kprogression decomposes the final disparity over reasoning depth\. Figure[5](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A2.F5)illustrates the full pipeline\.

#### Interventional reading\.

Re\-feeding the truncated prefix as a fresh context is what makesPkAP^\{A\}\_\{k\}interventional: it answers what decision the model would commit to if thinking were interrupted at depthkkand the model were forced to answer immediately\.

#### Aggregation\.

For pooled or stratified reporting we average\|CDPGk\(i\)\|\|\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}^\{\(i\)\}\|over pairs within a chosen subpopulation𝒮\\mathcal\{S\}\(a contingency cell, a \(model, dataset\) cell, or the full pair pool\), giving\|CDPGk\|¯=1\|𝒮\|​∑i∈𝒮\|CDPGk\(i\)\|\\overline\{\|\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|\}=\\tfrac\{1\}\{\|\\mathcal\{S\}\|\}\\sum\_\{i\\in\\mathcal\{S\}\}\|\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}^\{\(i\)\}\|\. This aggregation is used to build the per\-cell trajectories in §[4\.3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.SS3)\.

### 3\.4Transition Matrix Tools

Our second dynamic instrument, theBias Transition Matrix \(BTM\), tracks how predictions move between the non\-thinking and thinking arms at two granularities: a group\-level matrixTAT^\{A\}that conditions on the protected attribute alone, and a pair\-state matrixTpairT^\{\\text\{pair\}\}that tracks the joint state of a counterfactual pair\.

#### Group\-level transition matrixTAT^\{A\}\.

Each instance yields a non\-thinking predictiony^nothink∈\{Y,N\}\\hat\{y\}\_\{\\text\{nothink\}\}\\in\\\{Y,N\\\}and a thinking predictiony^think∈\{Y,N\}\\hat\{y\}\_\{\\text\{think\}\}\\in\\\{Y,N\\\}, whereY,NY,Nrepresents Yes and No, respectively\. Conditioning on the protected attributeAA, the group\-level transition matrix is

Ti​jA\\displaystyle T^\{A\}\_\{ij\}=P⁡\(y^think=j∣y^nothink=i,A\),\\displaystyle=P\(\\hat\{y\}\_\{\\text\{think\}\}\{=\}j\\mid\\hat\{y\}\_\{\\text\{nothink\}\}\{=\}i,\\,A\),\(7\)fori,j∈\{Y,N\}i,j\\in\\\{Y,N\\\}andA∈\{α,α′\}A\\in\\\{\\alpha,\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\\\}, estimated by empirical conditional frequency\.TAT^\{A\}characterises how individual predictions move from non\-thinking to thinking for each protected attribute value, without reference to the counterfactual partner\.

#### Pair\-state transition matrixTpairT^\{\\text\{pair\}\}\.

Each counterfactual pair yields a non\-thinking pair\-statesnt∈\{NN,YY,M\}s\_\{\\text\{nt\}\}\\in\\\{\\text\{NN\},\\text\{YY\},\\text\{M\}\\\}and a thinking pair\-statesth∈\{NN,YY,M\}s\_\{\\text\{th\}\}\\in\\\{\\text\{NN\},\\text\{YY\},\\text\{M\}\\\}, where NN denotes both sides predicted negative, YY both sides predicted positive, and M a mixed state \(equivalently a counterfactual flip\)\. The pair\-state transition matrix is

Ti​jpair\\displaystyle T^\{\\text\{pair\}\}\_\{ij\}=P⁡\(sth=j∣snt=i\),\\displaystyle=P\(s\_\{\\text\{th\}\}\{=\}j\\mid s\_\{\\text\{nt\}\}\{=\}i\),\(8\)fori,j∈\{NN,YY,M\}i,j\\in\\\{\\text\{NN\},\\text\{YY\},\\text\{M\}\\\}, estimated by empirical conditional frequency over the pooled pair population, and also stratified per \(model, dataset\) cell\.TpairT^\{\\text\{pair\}\}characterises how the joint pair distribution moves between the two arms at the pair level\. The contingency cells of §[3\.2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.SS2)are off\-diagonal blocks ofTpairT^\{\\text\{pair\}\}: cellcc\(created flips\) is the\{NN,YY\}→M\\\{\\text\{NN\},\\text\{YY\}\\\}\{\\to\}\\text\{M\}mass, cellbb\(resolved flips\) is theM→\{NN,YY\}\\text\{M\}\{\\to\}\\\{\\text\{NN\},\\text\{YY\}\\\}mass, and the resolve\-vs\-create asymmetry of the dual effect is the asymmetry between these two off\-diagonal blocks\. By comparison with the group\-levelTAT^\{A\}above,TpairT^\{\\text\{pair\}\}captures the joint dynamics thatTAT^\{A\}marginalises out: ifTαT^\{\\alpha\}andTα′T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}are nearly identical, any asymmetry in the dual effect must originate at the joint pair\-state level captured byTpairT^\{\\text\{pair\}\}\.

## 4Results

### 4\.1Experimental setup

We evaluate three high\-stakes tabular decision datasets\.Adult\([Becker and Kohavi, 1996](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib19)\)predicts whether an individual’s annual income exceeds $50K, with*sex*as the protected attribute\.COMPAS\([Angwin et al\., 2022](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib20)\)predicts two\-year recidivism, with*race*as the protected attribute \(binarised to White vs\. Non\-White\)\.Credit\([Yeh, 2009](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib21)\)predicts next\-month credit\-card default, with*sex*as the protected attribute\. To prevent confounding between protected attributes, we drop the race column from Adult and the sex column from COMPAS so that each dataset isolates a single protected attribute under counterfactual substitution; Credit contains no second protected column\. Each dataset is sampled atN=5,000N\{=\}5\{,\}000records and each record is paired with its protected\-attribute counterfactual via fixed\-template natural\-language profiling \(Appendix[A](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A1)\)\.

We evaluate three open\-weight3232B\-class reasoning models that expose thinking tokens natively: QwQ\-32B\([Team, 2025](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib3)\), DeepSeek\-R1\-Distill\-Qwen\-32B\([Guo et al\., 2025](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib1)\), and Qwen3\-32B\([Yang et al\., 2025](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib2)\)\. The within\-model non\-thinking baseline is implemented by inserting a closed empty<think\></think\>block\. All models run at 4\-bit AWQ quantisation on A100 80 GB GPUs with greedy decoding \(T=0T\{=\}0\); CDPG force\-answer probabilities are read directly from answer\-token log\-probabilities\.

We retain only counterfactual pairs whose Yes/No answer parses on both sides of both arms; the effectiveNNfalls below5,0005\{,\}000when the model emits no Yes/No token and therefore cannot be classified\. The most severe drop is DeepSeek\-R1\-Distill\-Qwen\-32B on COMPAS \(N=1,430N\{=\}1\{,\}430\), where the non\-thinking arm refuses to answer on the majority of records; the remaining cases lie within a few records of5,0005\{,\}000\(Table[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T2)\)\.

### 4\.2The phenomenon: asymmetric dual effect of thinking

#### Group disparity gives an inconsistent signal\.

Contingency cells \(counts\)McNemar𝒟disp¯\\overline\{\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}\}in cellbb𝒟disp¯\\overline\{\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}\}in cellccModelDatasetNNaabbccddppnothinkthinkKnothinkthinkKQwen3\-32BAdult5000453175362323\.7×10−463\.7\{\\times\}10^\{\-46\}0\.2190\.0480\.0550\.859COMPAS5000451114334423\.7×10−203\.7\{\\times\}10^\{\-20\}0\.1500\.0370\.0460\.781Credit499648672310511\.0×10−131\.0\{\\times\}10^\{\-13\}0\.0750\.0120\.0230\.755QwQ\-32BAdult5000439615244396\.1×10−346\.1\{\\times\}10^\{\-34\}0\.1310\.0010\.0290\.980COMPAS500046341535102\.3×10−842\.3\{\\times\}10^\{\-84\}0\.2620\.0080\.0020\.891Credit4984426512159535\.3×10−765\.3\{\\times\}10^\{\-76\}0\.1560\.0160\.0070\.642R1\-Distill\-Qwen\-32BAdult4999425577646217\.6×10−1137\.6\{\\times\}10^\{\-113\}0\.0760\.0260\.0320\.918COMPAS14301247417907\.5×10−487\.5\{\\times\}10^\{\-48\}0\.0850\.0030\.0420\.933Credit499545021048301\.7×10−1281\.7\{\\times\}10^\{\-128\}0\.0340\.0000\.0030\.791Pooled\(9 cells\)4140437208620350868<10−485<10^\{\-485\}0\.1430\.0220\.0240\.835Table 2:Dual\-effect contingency table with within\-pair gap reshaping in cellsbbandcc\.Cell countsa,b,c,da,b,c,d; the McNemar column reports the exact two\-sidedpp\-value of McNemar’s test on the discordant cells\(b,c\)\(b,c\), rejectingH0:b=cH\_\{0\}\{:\}\\,b\{=\}cin every setting; rightmost columns give the mean per\-pair counterfactual disparity𝒟disp¯\\overline\{\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}\}in cellsb,cb,cunder the nothink and final\-thinking arms \(𝒟disp\(i\)≡\|CDPGK\(i\)\|\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}^\{\(i\)\}\\equiv\|\\mathrm\{CDPG\}\_\{K\}^\{\(i\)\}\|, Eqs\.[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.E2),[6](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.E6)\)\.NNretains pairs parsing on both sides of both arms\.Figure 2:Per\-cell change under thinking of counterfactual disparity \(Δ​𝒟cf\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\mathrm\{cf\}\}, Eq\.[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.E1)\) vs\. group disparity \(Δ​𝒟group\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\mathrm\{group\}\}, Eq\.[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.E3)\)\.Absolute Think/No\-think values are reported in Table[9](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A6.T9)\(Appendix[F](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A6)\)\.Figure[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.F2)shows thatΔ​𝒟group\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}\(pale bars\) has no consistent sign across the nine \(model, dataset\) scenarios: thinking amplifies group disparity in four cases, mitigates it in four, and leaves it effectively unchanged in one\. The magnitudes are also small \(\|Δ​𝒟group\|≤0\.035\|\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}\|\\leq 0\.035, with six cases at≤0\.015\\leq 0\.015\)\. On QwQ\-AdultΔ​𝒟group=−0\.018\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}=\-0\.018\(a single\-group audit reads “thinking helps”\); on QwQ\-COMPASΔ​𝒟group=\+0\.035\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}=\+0\.035\(the same audit reads “thinking hurts”\)\. The direction of the group\-disparity verdict is dataset\-dependent\. This observation, complementing with Section[4\.4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.SS4), explains why prior work reaches opposing conclusions in fairness implications\.

#### Counterfactual disparity is consistently amplified\.

By contrast,Δ​𝒟cf\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{cf\}\}\(dark bars in Figure[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.F2)\) is positive in all9/99/9cells, ranging from\+0\.016\+0\.016\(Qwen3\-Credit\) to\+0\.122\+0\.122\(R1\-Distill\-COMPAS\)\. Counterfactual flip rate increases under thinking in every setting tested\. To understand the source of this consistent amplification, a finer\-grained diagnosis is needed\.

#### Two direct contributors to the counterfactual amplification\.

Table[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T2)decomposes the counterfactual amplification into two contributors\.*\(i\) Counterfactual bias creation outnumbers resolution*:\|c\|\>\|b\|\|c\|\>\|b\|in all nine scenarios, with the pooled gap35083508vs620620\(≈5\.7×\\approx 5\.7\\times\)\. The asymmetry is statistically decisive:bbandccare the discordant cells of the paired thinking\-vs\-nothink contingency, and McNemar’s exact test rejectsH0:b=cH\_\{0\}\{:\}\\,b\{=\}cin every setting \(p≤10−13p\\leq 10^\{\-13\}per cell; pooledp<10−485p<10^\{\-485\}; Table[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T2)\)\. Since decoding is greedy \(T=0T\{=\}0\), each flip is a deterministic function of the trace, so the excess of created over resolved flips cannot be attributed to sampling variance\. Nor is the effect specific to the Qwen lineage shared by the three main models: it replicates on gemma\-2\-27B and Llama\-3\.1\-8B with prompt\-elicited traces, at comparable ratios \(Appendix[D](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A4)\)\.*\(ii\) Within cellcc, the per\-pair counterfactual disparity is strengthened*: the mean𝒟disp¯\\overline\{\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}\}\(Eq\.[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.E2)\) on cell\-ccpairs rises from0\.0240\.024under nothink to0\.8350\.835under thinking \(≈34×\\approx 34\\timespooled\)\. Thinking thus creates more flips and commits to each created flip with markedly higher confidence; the cell\-bbresolution \(𝒟disp¯\\overline\{\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}\}0\.143→0\.0220\.143\\to 0\.022,6\.5×6\.5\\times\) is real but per\-pair≈5×\\approx 5\\timesweaker than cell\-cccreation\.

#### What remains for the dynamic analysis\.

Two questions follow from the dual\-effect phenomenon and motivate the rest of this section\. \(i\) Where in the thinking trace, and via what mechanism, does the dual effect emerge? \(ii\) Where, mechanistically, does the asymmetric transition arise that amplifies the counterfactual bias?

### 4\.3Bias propagation: the source of the dual effect

#### Bias dynamics\.

Figure[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.F3)plots the per\-cell mean\|CDPGk\|\|\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|against normalised depthk/Kk/Kfor each of the nine \(model, dataset\) settings\. The four cells split along a single axis: whether or not biased reasoning surfaces during thinking\. Cellsccanddd, the two cells in which thinking ends with a counterfactual flip, see\|CDPGk\|\|\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|rise toward saturation: once a bias signal surfaces mid\-trace, the remaining depth amplifies it into a high\-confidence disagreement\. Cellsaaandbb, the two cells in which thinking ends with agreement, see\|CDPGk\|\|\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|stay near zero or decay toward it: when no biased reasoning surfaces, the same amplifier sharpens the prediction toward a confident fair outcome\. The four trajectories are thus governed by one mechanism with two visible faces:thinking commits each pair\-side ever more confidently toward whichever boundary it is already drifting to, and the contingency cell only records whether the two sides land on the same or opposite boundaries\. These trajectories are robust to the segmentation granularity: recomputing atK∈\{5,10,20\}K\\in\\\{5,10,20\\\}preserves the cell\-ccpropagation slope’s sign and order of magnitude \(Appendix[C](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A3)\)\.

Figure 3:The dual effect plays out consistently as the thinking trace deepens\.Mean\|CDPGk\|\|\\mathrm\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|as a function of normalised thinking depthk/Kk/K, computed within each contingency cell, pooled across the nine \(model, dataset\) settings\.
#### Confidence dynamics\.

To understand where the bias dynamics in\|CDPGk\|\|\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|come from, we decompose them into the two per\-sideP⁡\(Yes\)P\(\\text\{Yes\}\)trajectories that produce them \(Figure[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.F4), cellsbbandcc\)\. Within each cell, one side maintains its initial prediction throughout the trace \(the*anchor*\) and the other changes prediction \(the*mover*\)\. In cellbb\(flip→\\toagree\), the mover starts from the nothink\-flip side, and moves to meet the anchor at the same boundary; the two sides converge in confidence and the within\-pair gap collapses\. In cellcc\(agree→\\toflip\), the mover starts at the same level as the anchor, and moves toward the opposite boundary; the two sides commit to opposite boundaries and the gap saturates\. The depth\-resolved confidence buildup in\|CDPGk\|\|\\text\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|is therefore a byproduct of thinking sharpening each side’s prediction confidence: whether this sharpening creates bias \(cellcc\) or resolves it \(cellbb\) depends only on*whether the evidence the trace accumulates is itself biased*\. The primary role of thinking is to strengthen prediction confidence; the unavoidable side effect is that when the accumulated evidence carries bias, the bias is sharpened in lockstep\.

Figure 4:Per\-sideP⁡\(Yes\)P\(\\mathrm\{Yes\}\)evolution through the thinking trace\.Cellbb\(left, resolved by thinking\) and cellcc\(right, created by thinking\)\. The leftmost point \(k=0k\{=\}0\) is the nothink baseline\. Pooled across the nine \(model, dataset\) settings\.

### 4\.4Pair\-state asymmetry and group\-level blindness

AdultCOMPASCreditAAP⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)P⁡\(Y\|N\)P\(Y\|N\)Δ​P​\(Y\)\\Delta P\(Y\)P⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)P⁡\(Y\|N\)P\(Y\|N\)Δ​P​\(Y\)\\Delta P\(Y\)P⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)P⁡\(Y\|N\)P\(Y\|N\)Δ​P​\(Y\)\\Delta P\(Y\)α\\alpha0\.8890\.8890\.0760\.076\+0\.033\+0\.0330\.9980\.9980\.2810\.281\+0\.174\+0\.1740\.9080\.9080\.0120\.012−0\.026\-0\.026α′\\alpha^\{\\prime\}0\.9030\.9030\.0770\.077\+0\.032\+0\.0320\.9970\.9970\.2720\.272\+0\.182\+0\.1820\.9120\.9120\.0110\.011−0\.025\-0\.025𝚫=𝑻𝜶−𝑻𝜶′\\boldsymbol\{\\Delta=T^\{\\alpha\}\-T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\}−0\.014\\mathbf\{\-0\.014\}−0\.001\\mathbf\{\-0\.001\}\+0\.001\\mathbf\{\+0\.001\}\+0\.001\\mathbf\{\+0\.001\}\+0\.009\\mathbf\{\+0\.009\}−0\.008\\mathbf\{\-0\.008\}−0\.004\\mathbf\{\-0\.004\}\+0\.002\\mathbf\{\+0\.002\}−0\.001\\mathbf\{\-0\.001\}Table 3:Group\-level transition matrixTAT^\{A\}for Qwen3\-32B, stratified by protected attribute\.α/α′=\\alpha/\\alpha^\{\\prime\}=\{\}Male/Female \(Adult, Credit\), White/Non\-White \(COMPAS\);P⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)andP⁡\(Y\|N\)P\(Y\|N\)denote the probability of transitioning to a Y prediction from a Y or N prediction respectively\.Δ​P​\(Y\)=P​\(Y\)th−P​\(Y\)nt\\Delta P\(Y\)=P\(Y\)\_\{\\text\{th\}\}\-P\(Y\)\_\{\\text\{nt\}\}measures the overall shift in the Yes\-prediction rate \(Y = earns over $50K for Adult, will recidivate for COMPAS, will default for Credit\)\. Other models in Appendix[G](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A7)\.AdultCOMPASCreditfromNN\\mathrm\{NN\}YY\\mathrm\{YY\}M\\mathrm\{M\}nnNN\\mathrm\{NN\}YY\\mathrm\{YY\}M\\mathrm\{M\}nnNN\\mathrm\{NN\}YY\\mathrm\{YY\}M\\mathrm\{M\}nnNN\\mathrm\{NN\}0\.8940\.8940\.0350\.0350\.0710\.0713,7203\{,\}7200\.6860\.6860\.2070\.2070\.1080\.1083,1573\{,\}1570\.9810\.9810\.0040\.0040\.0150\.0153,1703\{,\}170YY\\mathrm\{YY\}0\.0500\.0500\.8660\.8660\.0840\.0841,1731\{,\}1730\.0010\.0010\.9960\.9960\.0020\.0021,6981\{,\}6980\.0680\.0680\.8990\.8990\.0330\.0331,8021\{,\}802M\\mathrm\{M\}0\.2900\.2900\.4110\.4110\.2990\.2991071070\.0000\.0000\.9860\.9860\.0140\.0141451450\.9170\.9170\.0420\.0420\.0420\.0422424total3,4153\{,\}4151,1911\{,\}191𝟑𝟗𝟒\\mathbf\{394\}5,0005\{,\}0002,1672\{,\}1672,4872\{,\}487𝟑𝟒𝟔\\mathbf\{346\}5,0005\{,\}0003,2563\{,\}2561,6341\{,\}634𝟏𝟎𝟔\\mathbf\{106\}4,9964\{,\}996Table 4:Pair\-state transition matrixTpairT^\{\\mathrm\{pair\}\}for Qwen3\-32B \(forward: nothink→\\tothink\)\.Within\-row conditional probabilities; row countsnnand column totals shown\. HighlightedM\\mathrm\{M\}column totals are the post\-think cell\-cc/ddpopulation sizes\.ModelDataset\|c\|\|c\|cα↑c\_\{\\alpha\\uparrow\}cα′↑c\_\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\\uparrow\}asym​\(c\)\\text\{asym\}\(c\)δc\\delta\_\{c\}\(%\)Qwen3Adult3621861760\.03\+0\.20\+0\.20COMPAS3441701740\.01−0\.08\-0\.08Credit10561440\.16\+0\.34\+0\.34QwQAdult4432312120\.04\+0\.38\+0\.38COMPAS351822690\.53−3\.74\-3\.74Credit5952323630\.22−2\.63\-2\.63R1\-DistillAdult6463373090\.04\+0\.56\+0\.56COMPAS179631160\.30−3\.71\-3\.71Credit4832762070\.14\+1\.38\+1\.38Pooled\(9 cells\)3508163818700\.07−0\.56\-0\.56Table 5:Directional decomposition of created flips \(cellcc\)\.δc\\delta\_\{c\}reported in %; definitions in §[4\.4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.SS4)\. Shaded cells: the four \(model, dataset\) settings withΔ​𝒟group\>0\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}\{\>\}0in Table[9](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A6.T9)\.#### Asymmetry is not caused by group\-level transition differences\.

A natural first hypothesis is that the asymmetry of\|c\|\>\|b\|\|c\|\>\|b\|under thinking comes from the protected attribute driving different transition rates forα\\alphaandα′\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\. Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T3)rules this out by evaluating thegroup\-level transition matrix\(§[3\.4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.SS4)\): stratifying the nothink→\\tothink transition matrix by the protected attribute,Tα≈Tα′T^\{\\alpha\}\\approx T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}on every \(dataset, transition\) entry, with signed gap\|Tα−Tα′\|≤0\.014\|T^\{\\alpha\}\-T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\|\\leq 0\.014uniformly\. The post\-think dual effect asymmetry therefore cannot originate at the group\-level transition whereTAT^\{A\}is essentially balanced acrossA∈\{α,α′\}A\\in\\\{\\alpha,\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\\\}\. A group\-rate audit \(such as group fairness\) that reads onlyTAT^\{A\}is structurally blind to whatever drives the asymmetry\. Moreover, thinking usually shifts the overall Yes\-prediction rate on both sides \(Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T3)\)\.This shift could be misinterpreted by “bias mitigated” or “bias amplified” if we only study one side of the groups\.This gives another potential cause of why prior studies reach opposing conclusions\.

#### Pair\-state transition matrixTpairT^\{\\mathrm\{pair\}\}: Asymmetry is rooted in starting\-state population and transition probabilities\.

As a first\-order analysis, assume per\-side flips are independent within a pair conditional on the nothink starting state\. Writingp:=P⁡\(Y\|N\)p:=P\(Y\|N\)andq:=P⁡\(N\|Y\)=1−P⁡\(Y\|Y\)q:=P\(N\|Y\)=1\-P\(Y\|Y\)\(Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T3);Tα≈Tα′T^\{\\alpha\}\\approx T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}lets us drop the side subscript\), the expected cell\-ccand cell\-bbcounts are

𝔼​\|c\|\\displaystyle\\mathbb\{E\}\|c\|=2​p​\(1−p\)​\|NN\|nt\+2​q​\(1−q\)\|​YY\|nt,\\displaystyle=2p\(1\{\-\}p\)\\,\|\\mathrm\{NN\}\|\_\{\\mathrm\{nt\}\}\+2q\(1\{\-\}q\)\\,\|\\mathrm\{YY\}\|\_\{\\mathrm\{nt\}\},𝔼​\|b\|\\displaystyle\\mathbb\{E\}\|b\|=\[p⁡\(1−q\)\+q⁡\(1−p\)\]​\|M\|nt\.\\displaystyle=\[\\,p\(1\{\-\}q\)\+q\(1\{\-\}p\)\\,\]\\,\|\\mathrm\{M\}\|\_\{\\mathrm\{nt\}\}\.Plugging the empiricalp,qp,qand nothink populations into these expressions already predicts\|c\|\>\|b\|\|c\|\>\|b\|on every cell \(Table[12](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A8.T12), “\|c\|\|c\|ind\.” vs\. “\|b\|\|b\|ind\.” columns\)\. Empirically, independence is not strictly satisfied: the two sides of a pair share most of their input prose and tend to co\-flip, so the realisedTpairT^\{\\mathrm\{pair\}\}\(Table[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T4)for Qwen3\-32B, Tables[13](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A9.T13),[14](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A9.T14)for the other models\) deviates from the independence formula \(Appendix[H](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A8)\)\. Within\-pair correlation thus shifts the magnitudes but not the direction:\|c\|\>\|b\|\|c\|\>\|b\|holds in every cell, matching the independence prediction\. The dual\-effect asymmetry is therefore a structural consequence of any non\-trivial transition probability acting on an imbalanced nothink population\.

#### Directional decomposition of cellccand audit visibility\.

Cellcccounts the pairs that flip under thinking but is silent on which side wins\. Splitting cellccintoα\\alpha\-favoured pairs \(cα↑:y^α=1,y^α′=0c\_\{\\alpha\\uparrow\}\{:\}\\,\\hat\{y\}^\{\\alpha\}\{=\}1,\\hat\{y\}^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\{=\}0\) andα′\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\-favoured ones \(cα′↑c\_\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\\uparrow\}, opposite direction\) under the fixed conventionα/α′=\\alpha/\\alpha^\{\\prime\}=\{\}Male/Female \(Adult, Credit\), White/Non\-White \(COMPAS\), adapting[Prabhakaran et al\. \(2019\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#bib.bib13), gives the signed cell\-cctiltδc=\(cα↑−cα′↑\)/N\\delta\_\{c\}=\(c\_\{\\alpha\\uparrow\}\-c\_\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\\uparrow\}\)/N\(Table[5](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T5)\)\. Cellsaaandbbhave both sides of every pair agreeing under thinking, so they contribute zero to the think\-arm marginal difference betweenα\\alphaandα′\\alpha^\{\\prime\}; the cell\-level contribution toΔ​𝒟group\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}therefore originates entirely fromδc\\delta\_\{c\}and an analogous cell\-ddtilt that is small because\|d\|\|d\|itself is small \(≤68\\leq 68pairs pooled\)\. Empirically, the four cells with the largest\|δc\|\|\\delta\_\{c\}\|are the four cells where\|Δ​𝒟group\|\|\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}\|in Figure[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.F2)clears the visible\-signal threshold; the remaining five carry\|δc\|≤0\.56%\|\\delta\_\{c\}\|\\leq 0\.56\\%and yield\|Δ​𝒟group\|\|\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}\|at the noise floor\. The five noise\-floor cells are not bias\-free: they are cells with large\|c\|\|c\|whose tilt happens to split symmetrically betweenα\\alphaandα′\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\. A group\-rate audit reads them asΔ​𝒟group≈0\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}\{\\approx\}0either way, so visible group disparity is the special case of asymmetric cell\-cctilt\.

## 5Conclusion

Thinking in reasoning models does not simply resolve counterfactual bias; it acts as a confidence amplifier that both resolves and creates counterfactual flips through one mechanism\. CDPG exposes this along the depth of the thinking trace: each side of a counterfactual pair is sharpened toward whichever boundary it is already drifting to, so the same dynamic resolves a flip on some pairs and creates one on others, depending only on whether the accumulated reasoning is itself biased\. BTM then locates the asymmetric dual effect at the pair\-state level: per\-group marginal transitions shift in near\-lockstep across the two protected\-attribute values, so the cross\-group disagreement that drives the asymmetry is invisible to any single\-group audit and only surfaces in the joint pair\-state transition\. This is where counterfactual bias originates under thinking, and where fairness audits of reasoning models should look\.

## 6Limitations

#### Scope\.

This study evaluates counterfactual fairness on three tabular binary classification tasks with binary protected attributes \(sex and race\)\. The main study covers three 32B Qwen\-lineage reasoning models; a smaller\-scale replication on two non\-Qwen families \(Appendix[D](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A4)\) supports generality, but with prompt\-elicited rather than native thinking traces\. Three lines of investigation are outside the present scope: a fuller group\-fairness treatment beyond the demographic\-parity contrast reported alongside the counterfactual audit \(e\.g\., equalised\-odds and calibration criteria; planned follow\-up\); extension to free\-form generation tasks, multi\-class attributes, and multilingual settings; and intervention\-based mitigation\. The paper is diagnostic: it introduces two dynamic instruments \(bias propagation and the pair\-state transition matrix\) and characterises a previously invisible failure mode; evaluation of concrete mitigation strategies against these instruments is left to future work\.

#### Methodological assumptions\.

Bias propagation usesK=10K\{=\}10equal\-token segments of the thinking trace, a granularity that trades depth resolution against compute cost \(900,000900\{,\}000forward passes for the full study:33models×\\times33datasets×\\times5,0005\{,\}000pairs×\\times22sides×\\times1010depths\)\. A sensitivity check atK∈\{5,10,20\}K\\in\\\{5,10,20\\\}\(Appendix[C](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A3)\) finds the cell\-ccpropagation slope preserved in sign and order of magnitude, though the check covers one model family and the linear\-slope summary rather than the full trajectory shape\. The within\-model non\-thinking baseline injects an empty closed<think\></think\>block; a small fraction of generations may still emit reasoning tokens after this prefix, and we report aggregates only over completions that respect the instruction\. All inference uses 4\-bit AWQ quantisation\.

#### Disposition\.

The study is diagnostic, not mitigating\. The two dynamic instruments and the within\-pair contingency decomposition jointly provide the lens and the finding; evaluation of concrete mitigation candidates against the propagation and transition\-matrix objectives is the natural follow\-up and is outside the scope of this paper\.

## Ethics Statement

The datasets \(Adult, COMPAS, Credit\) are public and extensively analysed in the fairness literature; we use them for measurement only, not training or deployment\. Our finding, that thinking\-token reasoning can construct high\-confidence counterfactual disagreements at5×5\{\\times\}the per\-pair magnitude of corresponding reductions, itself signals that deployment of such models in high\-stakes settings should not lean on the*appearance*of deliberation as fairness assurance\. We do not release new model weights\.

## Use of AI Assistants

AI coding assistants were used to help develop and refactor parts of the experimental codebase \(data\-loading utilities, inference pipelines, and plotting scripts\), with all logic reviewed by the authors\. AI tools were also used for limited language polishing of the manuscript \(grammar, phrasing, and clarity\); all scientific claims, analyses, and conclusions are the authors’ own\.

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## Appendix ANatural\-Language Profile Generation

Each tabular record is rendered into prose by a*deterministic Python template*\. Because the template is a pure function of the row dict, matched \(norm,cf\) pairs are byte\-identical except for the protected\-attribute adjective and the pronouns that grammatically depend on it; no phrasing\-level variance can confound the counterfactual signal\.

Pronoun handling has two modes:gendered\(he/his vs\. she/her, flipping withsex; used for Adult and Credit\) andneutral\(singular*they*on both sides; used for COMPAS, whose protected attributeracehas no English pronoun system\)\. Verbs and possessives are toggled accordingly\. The templates are reproduced verbatim below\.

#### Adult template\.

> Thispersonisa\{age\}\-year\-old\{sex\}\.\{His\}maritalstatusis \{marital\_status\}\.\{He\}work\{s\}inthe\{workclass\}sectorasa \{occupation\}worker,\{hours\_per\_week\}hoursperweek\.\{He\} \{has\}a\{education\}education\(educationnumber\{education\_num\}\)\. \{He\}report\{s\}$\{capital\_gain\}incapitalgainsand $\{capital\_loss\}incapitallosses\.\{He\}\{is\}from\{native\_country\}\.

#### COMPAS template\.

> Thisdefendantisa\{age\}\-year\-old\{race\}person\.Theyhave \{juvenile\_felony\_count\}priorjuvenilefelonyoffense\(s\), \{juvenile\_misdemeanor\_count\}priorjuvenilemisdemeanoroffense\(s\), and\{juvenile\_other\_count\}otherpriorjuvenileoffense\(s\)\.They have\{priors\_count\}prioradultcriminaloffense\(s\)\.Thecurrent chargeisa\{charge\_degree\}\.

#### Credit template\.

> Thispersonisa\{age\}\-year\-old\{sex\}\.\{His\}maritalstatusis \{marital\_status\}and\{his\}educationlevelis\{education\_label\}\. \{He\}\{has\}acreditlimitofNT$\{credit\_limit\}\.\{His\}statement balancesoverthepast6monthswere$\{bill\_1\},$\{bill\_2\},\.\.\., $\{bill\_6\},and\{he\}paid$\{paid\_1\},$\{paid\_2\},\.\.\.,$\{paid\_6\}, respectively\.\{He\}\{had\_or\_had\_no\}latepaymentsinthepast 6months\.

whereeducation\_labelmaps the UCI numeric education code via\{1:graduate school,2:university,3:high school,4:other education\}\\\{1\{:\}\\text\{graduate school\},\\,2\{:\}\\text\{university\},\\,3\{:\}\\text\{high school\},\\,4\{:\}\\text\{other education\}\\\}and unmapped codes render asunspecified education\.

Counterfactual instances are generated by code: a single dictionary field is flipped \(sex∈\\in\{Male, Female\} for Adult and Credit;race∈\\in\{White, Non\-White\} for COMPAS\) and the same template is re\-rendered\. Because the template is a pure function of the row dict, all non\-protected substrings in the \(norm,cf\) prose are byte\-identical except for the protected\-attribute adjective and \(forgendered\) the pronouns that grammatically depend on it\.

## Appendix BCDPG measurement pipeline

QaQ^\{a\}age 38, sales,sex =MaleQa′Q^\{a^\{\\prime\}\}age 38, sales,sex =Femalethinking traceTaT^\{a\}1122⋯\\cdotskk⋯\\cdotsKKthinking traceTa′T^\{a^\{\\prime\}\}1122⋯\\cdotskk⋯\\cdotsKKPkaP^\{a\}\_\{k\}Pka′P^\{a^\{\\prime\}\}\_\{k\}CDPGk=Pka−Pka′\\mathrm\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}=P^\{a\}\_\{k\}\-P^\{a^\{\\prime\}\}\_\{k\}

Figure 5:CDPG measurement pipeline\.Counterfactual paired inputs\(Qα,Qα′\)\(Q^\{\\alpha\},Q^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\)are passed through the same reasoning model; each thinking trace is split intoK=10K\{=\}10equal\-token segments\. At every prefix depthkkwe read the answer\-token softmaxPkA=P\(y^=1∣QA,S1:kA\)P^\{A\}\_\{k\}\{=\}P\(\\hat\{y\}\{=\}1\\mid Q^\{A\},S^\{A\}\_\{1:k\}\)and reportCDPGk=Pkα−Pkα′\\mathrm\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\{=\}P^\{\\alpha\}\_\{k\}\{\-\}P^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\_\{k\}\.
## Appendix CSensitivity of CDPG to the segmentation granularityKK

The CDPG instrument partitions each thinking trace intoK=10K\{=\}10equal\-token segments \(§[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4)\)\. To check that the depth\-wise conclusions do not depend on this choice, we recompute the trajectories atK∈\{5,10,20\}K\\in\\\{5,10,20\\\}for Qwen3\-32B on all three datasets \(Figure[6](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A3.F6)\) and fit a linear slope to the cell\-ccmean\|CDPGk\|\|\\mathrm\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|trajectory against normalised depthk/Kk/K\(Table[6](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A3.T6)\)\.

Cell\-ccpropagation slopeDatasetncn\_\{c\}K=5K\{=\}5K=10K\{=\}10K=20K\{=\}20Adult540\.780\.650\.59COMPAS560\.770\.620\.54Credit160\.610\.420\.32Table 6:CDPG segmentation sensitivity for Qwen3\-32B\.Fitted linear slope of the cell\-ccmean\|CDPGk\|\|\\mathrm\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|trajectory against normalised depthk/Kk/K, recomputed atK∈\{5,10,20\}K\\in\\\{5,10,20\\\};ncn\_\{c\}is the number of cell\-ccpairs in the rerun sample\.Figure 6:CDPG trajectories are robust to the segmentation choice\.Mean\|CDPGk\|\|\\mathrm\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|per contingency cell as a function of normalised depthk/Kk/KforK∈\{5,10,20\}K\\in\\\{5,10,20\\\}\(Qwen3\-32B, rerun subsample pooled across the three datasets; per\-cell pair counts in the legend\)\.The propagation slope for cellccstays positive and of the same order of magnitude at everyKKon all three datasets, so the depth\-wise amplification that defines cellccis robust to the segmentation choice\. The mild decrease withKKis expected:\|CDPGk\|\|\\mathrm\{CDPG\}\_\{k\}\|saturates toward the end of the trace, so a linear fit over finer segments averages in more of the plateau\. TheK=10K\{=\}10conclusions reported in the main text do not depend on the specific choice ofKK\.

## Appendix DGeneralization beyond the Qwen lineage

The three main\-study models share a Qwen pretraining lineage \(QwQ\-32B and Qwen3\-32B directly; R1\-Distill via a Qwen student\)\. To test whether the asymmetric dual effect is a lineage artefact, we replicate the audit on two model families with different pretraining lineages and sizes: gemma\-2\-27B \(Google\) and Llama\-3\.1\-8B \(Meta\), atN=1,000N\{=\}1\{,\}000sampled records per \(model, dataset\) setting\. Neither model exposes a native<think\>channel, so the thinking trace is elicited by prompt and scored with the identical CDPG pipeline; the non\-thinking arm and all metrics are unchanged from §[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4)\.

Contingency cells \(counts\)McNemar𝒟disp¯\\overline\{\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}\}\(thinkK\)Model \(family\)DatasetNNaabbccddc:bc:bppcellcccellbbgemma\-2\-27B \(Google\)Adult997928115444\.9×4\.9\\times6\.0×10−86\.0\{\\times\}10^\{\-8\}0\.8860\.006COMPAS†704702020—0\.50\.50\.446—Credit10009420580—6\.9×10−186\.9\{\\times\}10^\{\-18\}0\.940—Llama\-3\.1\-8B \(Meta\)Adult8897562010945\.5×5\.5\\times5\.1×10−165\.1\{\\times\}10^\{\-16\}0\.6840\.095COMPAS10008421814007\.8×7\.8\\times1\.3×10−241\.3\{\\times\}10^\{\-24\}0\.2930\.106Credit9696853325107\.6×7\.6\\times1\.1×10−421\.1\{\\times\}10^\{\-42\}0\.2790\.084Pooled\(6 cells\)555948558261487\.5×7\.5\\times1\.3×10−1011\.3\{\\times\}10^\{\-101\}Table 7:The asymmetric dual effect replicates on two non\-Qwen model families\.Same protocol and metrics as Table[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T2), atN=1,000N\{=\}1\{,\}000sampled records per setting \(NNretains pairs parsing on both sides of both arms\); the thinking trace is elicited by prompt since neither model exposes a native<think\>channel\.𝒟disp¯\\overline\{\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}\}\(thinkK\) is the mean per\-pair counterfactual disparity \(Eq\.[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.E2)\) at full depth within cellsccandbb\.†gemma\-2\-27B declines the COMPAS recidivism question on a large share of records \(296 of1,0001\{,\}000pairs unparsed\), leaving too few discordant pairs for a powered test; the row is shown for completeness and included in the pooled counts\.Table[7](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A4.T7)shows the dual effect persists: created flips outnumber resolved flips in every setting with a non\-trivial number of discordant pairs, at ratios \(4\.9×4\.9\\times–7\.8×7\.8\\times, pooled7\.5×7\.5\\times\) comparable to the nine main settings, and McNemar’s exact test rejectsb=cb\{=\}catp≤6\.0×10−8p\\leq 6\.0\{\\times\}10^\{\-8\}in each powered setting\. The confidence signature also reproduces: created flips are committed at high per\-pair disparity \(𝒟disp¯\\overline\{\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{disp\}\}\}up to0\.940\.94on gemma\-Credit\) while resolved\-cell disparities collapse toward zero\. The asymmetric dual effect is therefore not specific to the Qwen lineage, the 32B scale, or a native thinking channel\.

## Appendix EInference Prompt Format

Table[8](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A5.T8)shows the prompts used for the thinking and non\-thinking conditions on the Adult dataset\. The dataset\-specific question line is the only piece that varies across datasets:"Does this person earn more than $50K per year?"for Adult,"Will this person re\-offend within two years?"for COMPAS, and"Will this person default on their next credit card payment?"for Credit\.

ConditionExample prompt \(Adult\)Thinking mode\{description\}Question: Does this person earn more than $50K per year? Answer with a single word: Yes or No\.

Non\-thinking mode\[Same user message as above\. The chat template is rendered locally and the assistant turn is pre\-filled with a closed empty <think\>\\n\\n</think\>\\n\\n block, so generation resumes after </think\> and the model skips the reasoning phase\.\]Table 8:Prompt formats for the thinking and non\-thinking arms on the Adult dataset\.\{description\}is the natural\-language profile from Appendix[A](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A1)\.
## Appendix FAbsolute disparity values per \(model, dataset\) cell

Figure[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.F2)in the main text reports only the per\-cell changeΔ=𝒟Think−𝒟No​\-​think\\Delta=\\mathcal\{D\}^\{\\mathrm\{Think\}\}\-\\mathcal\{D\}^\{\\mathrm\{No\\text\{\-\}think\}\}for compactness\. Table[9](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A6.T9)reports the corresponding absolute disparities𝒟cf\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\mathrm\{cf\}\}and𝒟group\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\mathrm\{group\}\}under each arm\.

ThinkNo\-think𝚫\\boldsymbol\{\\Delta\}ModelDatasetNN𝒟cf\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{cf\}\}𝒟group\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}𝒟cf\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{cf\}\}𝒟group\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}Δ​𝒟cf\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{cf\}\}Δ​𝒟group\\Delta\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}Qwen3Adult50000\.0790\.0060\.0210\.012\+0\.058\+0\.058−0\.006\-0\.006COMPAS50000\.0690\.0010\.0290\.010\+0\.040\+0\.040−0\.009\-0\.009Credit49960\.0210\.0040\.0050\.004\+0\.016\+0\.0160\.000\\phantom\{\+\}0\.000QwQAdult50000\.0900\.0040\.0320\.021\+0\.058\+0\.058−0\.017\-0\.017COMPAS50000\.0700\.0370\.0030\.003\+0\.067\+0\.067\+0\.034\+0\.034Credit49840\.1200\.0260\.0250\.021\+0\.095\+0\.095\+0\.005\+0\.005R1\-DistillAdult49990\.1330\.0060\.0200\.008\+0\.113\+0\.113−0\.002\-0\.002COMPAS14300\.1250\.0370\.0030\.003\+0\.122\+0\.122\+0\.034\+0\.034Credit49950\.0970\.0140\.0020\.000\+0\.095\+0\.095\+0\.014\+0\.014Table 9:Counterfactual disparity𝒟cf\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{cf\}\}\(Eq\.[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.E1)\) and demographic\-parity gap𝒟group\\mathcal\{D\}\_\{\\text\{group\}\}\(Eq\.[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.E3)\) under the Think and No\-think arms, with within\-cell changeΔ=𝒟Think−𝒟No\-think\\Delta=\\mathcal\{D\}^\{\\text\{Think\}\}\-\\mathcal\{D\}^\{\\text\{No\-think\}\}\.PositiveΔ\\Deltaamplifies the bias, negativeΔ\\Deltamitigates \(palette from Table[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S3.T1)\)\.NNmatches Table[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T2)\.
## Appendix GGroup\-level transition matrix: detailed breakdown

Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T3)in the main text reports the group\-level transition matrixTi​jA=P⁡\(y^think=j∣y^nothink=i,A\)T^\{A\}\_\{ij\}=P\(\\hat\{y\}\_\{\\text\{think\}\}\{=\}j\\mid\\hat\{y\}\_\{\\text\{nothink\}\}\{=\}i,\\,A\)forA∈\{α,α′\}A\\in\\\{\\alpha,\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\\\}within each dataset for Qwen3\-32B\. Tables[10](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A7.T10)and[11](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A7.T11)extend the same stratification to QwQ\-32B and DeepSeek\-R1\-Distill\-Qwen\-32B, including the per\-group marginal driftΔ​P​\(Y\)=P​\(Y\)th−P​\(Y\)nt\\Delta P\(Y\)=P\(Y\)\_\{\\text\{th\}\}\-P\(Y\)\_\{\\text\{nt\}\}\. Across all three models the per\-\(model, dataset, direction\) gap betweenTαT^\{\\alpha\}andTα′T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}remains tightly bounded:\|Δ\|≤0\.014\|\\Delta\|\\leq 0\.014on Qwen3\-32B,\|Δ\|≤0\.017\|\\Delta\|\\leq 0\.017on QwQ\-32B \(largest on CreditP⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)\), and\|Δ\|≤0\.012\|\\Delta\|\\leq 0\.012on R1\-Distill\-Qwen\-32B\. These gaps are an order of magnitude smaller than the cell\-ccpair\-state tilts documented in the main text \(e\.g\., QwQ\-COMPASasym=0\.53\\mathrm\{asym\}\{=\}0\.53\); the pair\-level cell\-cctilts therefore cannot be inherited from group\-level bias, since the joint property captured byTpairT^\{\\mathrm\{pair\}\}\(Appendix[I](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A9)\) is what places the constraint on whether the two paired instances of a \(norm, cf\) pair transition consistently with each other\.

AdultCOMPASCreditAAP⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)P⁡\(Y\|N\)P\(Y\|N\)Δ​P​\(Y\)\\Delta P\(Y\)P⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)P⁡\(Y\|N\)P\(Y\|N\)Δ​P​\(Y\)\\Delta P\(Y\)P⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)P⁡\(Y\|N\)P\(Y\|N\)Δ​P​\(Y\)\\Delta P\(Y\)α\\alpha0\.9800\.9800\.3000\.300\+0\.249\+0\.2491\.0001\.0000\.5250\.525\+0\.525\+0\.5250\.9770\.9770\.3870\.387\+0\.361\+0\.361α′\\alpha^\{\\prime\}0\.9880\.9880\.3020\.302\+0\.255\+0\.2551\.0001\.0000\.5150\.515\+0\.513\+0\.5130\.9610\.9610\.3810\.381\+0\.355\+0\.355𝚫=𝑻𝜶−𝑻𝜶′\\boldsymbol\{\\Delta=T^\{\\alpha\}\-T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\}−0\.008\\mathbf\{\-0\.008\}−0\.002\\mathbf\{\-0\.002\}−0\.006\\mathbf\{\-0\.006\}\+0\.000\\mathbf\{\+0\.000\}\+0\.010\\mathbf\{\+0\.010\}\+0\.011\\mathbf\{\+0\.011\}\+0\.017\\mathbf\{\+0\.017\}\+0\.006\\mathbf\{\+0\.006\}\+0\.006\\mathbf\{\+0\.006\}Table 10:Group\-level transition matrixTAT^\{A\}for QwQ\-32B, stratified by protected attribute\.Same conventions as Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T3)\.AdultCOMPASCreditAAP⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)P⁡\(Y\|N\)P\(Y\|N\)Δ​P​\(Y\)\\Delta P\(Y\)P⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)P⁡\(Y\|N\)P\(Y\|N\)Δ​P​\(Y\)\\Delta P\(Y\)P⁡\(Y\|Y\)P\(Y\|Y\)P⁡\(Y\|N\)P\(Y\|N\)Δ​P​\(Y\)\\Delta P\(Y\)α\\alpha0\.9680\.9680\.1960\.196\+0\.138\+0\.1381\.0001\.0000\.2150\.215\+0\.203\+0\.2031\.0001\.0000\.3820\.382\+0\.381\+0\.381α′\\alpha^\{\\prime\}0\.9770\.9770\.2010\.201\+0\.147\+0\.1471\.0001\.0000\.2030\.203\+0\.193\+0\.1931\.0001\.0000\.3920\.392\+0\.391\+0\.391𝚫=𝑻𝜶−𝑻𝜶′\\boldsymbol\{\\Delta=T^\{\\alpha\}\-T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\}−0\.009\\mathbf\{\-0\.009\}−0\.005\\mathbf\{\-0\.005\}−0\.009\\mathbf\{\-0\.009\}\+0\.000\\mathbf\{\+0\.000\}\+0\.012\\mathbf\{\+0\.012\}\+0\.010\\mathbf\{\+0\.010\}\+0\.000\\mathbf\{\+0\.000\}−0\.010\\mathbf\{\-0\.010\}−0\.010\\mathbf\{\-0\.010\}Table 11:Group\-level transition matrixTAT^\{A\}for DeepSeek\-R1\-Distill\-Qwen\-32B, stratified by protected attribute\.Same conventions as Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T3)\.Pooled across84,42884\{,\}428per\-instance observations under a per\-side parseable filter \(an instance is retained iff its own think and nothink arms both emit Yes/No; this is looser than the pair\-level filter used in the main text, since one side of a pair can be unparseable without dropping the other\), the marginalT=𝔼A​\[TA\]T=\\mathbb\{E\}\_\{A\}\[T^\{A\}\]is

think=Y\{=\}Ythink=N\{=\}Ntotalnothink=Y\{=\}Y13,89113\{,\}891\(0\.9520\.952\)705705\(0\.0480\.048\)14,59614\{,\}596nothink=N\{=\}N20,21620\{,\}216\(0\.289\\mathbf\{0\.289\}\)49,61649\{,\}616\(0\.7110\.711\)69,83269\{,\}832Thinking exerts a strong group\-levelN→YN\{\\to\}Ypush: theN→YN\{\\to\}Ycount outnumbers theY→NY\{\\to\}Ncount by20,216/705=28\.7×20\{,\}216/705=28\.7\{\\times\}, and the two off\-diagonals ofTTare themselves asymmetric \(0\.0480\.048vs\.0\.2890\.289, a6×6\{\\times\}ratio\)\. Thinking moves predictions towardYYfor both protected attribute values, but operates more aggressively onNNbaselines than onYYbaselines\.

## Appendix HIndependence\-bound check per \(model, dataset\) cell

Table[12](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A8.T12)compares the independence\-based predictions for\|c\|\|c\|and\|b\|\|b\|\(§[4\.4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.SS4)\) against the empirical counts in each of the nine \(model, dataset\) cells\. For each cell,p=TN​YAp=T^\{A\}\_\{NY\}andq=TY​NAq=T^\{A\}\_\{YN\}are read from the group\-level transition matrices \(Tables[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T3),[10](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A7.T10),[11](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A7.T11), averaged acrossα\\alphaandα′\\alpha^\{\\prime\}sinceTα≈Tα′T^\{\\alpha\}\\approx T^\{\\alpha^\{\\prime\}\}\), and the nothink\-state populations\|NN\|nt,\|YY\|nt,\|M\|nt\|\\mathrm\{NN\}\|\_\{\\mathrm\{nt\}\},\|\\mathrm\{YY\}\|\_\{\\mathrm\{nt\}\},\|\\mathrm\{M\}\|\_\{\\mathrm\{nt\}\}are read from the row totals of the pair\-state matrices \(Tables[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T4),[13](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A9.T13),[14](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A9.T14)\)\.

\|c\|\|c\|\(created\)\|b\|\|b\|\(resolved\)\|c\|/\|b\|\|c\|/\|b\|ModelDatasetind\.actualratioind\.actualratioind\.actualQwen3\-32BAdult7447443633632\.05×2\.05\\times181875750\.24×0\.24\\times41414\.84\.8Qwen3\-32BCOMPAS127212723443443\.69×3\.69\\times40401431430\.28×0\.28\\times32322\.42\.4Qwen3\-32BCredit3673671071073\.43×3\.43\\times2223230\.10×0\.10\\times1531534\.74\.7QwQ\-32BAdult176817684444443\.98×3\.98\\times50501521520\.33×0\.33\\times36362\.92\.9QwQ\-32BCOMPAS248724873493497\.13×7\.13\\times8815150\.52×0\.52\\times31931923\.323\.3QwQ\-32BCredit219821985985983\.68×3\.68\\times49491211210\.40×0\.40\\times45454\.94\.9R1\-DistillAdult124612466496491\.92×1\.92\\times212177770\.27×0\.27\\times59598\.48\.4R1\-DistillCOMPAS4484481791792\.50×2\.50\\times11440\.21×0\.21\\times56056044\.844\.8R1\-DistillCredit235923594874874\.84×4\.84\\times4410100\.39×0\.39\\times60960948\.748\.7Table 12:Independence\-bound check per \(model, dataset\) cell\.Independence predictions use𝔼​\|c\|=2​p​\(1−p\)​\|NN\|nt\+2​q​\(1−q\)\|​YY\|nt\\mathbb\{E\}\|c\|=2p\(1\{\-\}p\)\\,\|\\mathrm\{NN\}\|\_\{\\mathrm\{nt\}\}\+2q\(1\{\-\}q\)\\,\|\\mathrm\{YY\}\|\_\{\\mathrm\{nt\}\}and𝔼​\|b\|=\[p⁡\(1−q\)\+q⁡\(1−p\)\]\|M\|nt\\mathbb\{E\}\|b\|=\[p\(1\{\-\}q\)\{\+\}q\(1\{\-\}p\)\]\\,\|\\mathrm\{M\}\|\_\{\\mathrm\{nt\}\}withp=P⁡\(Y\|N\)p=P\(Y\|N\)andq=P⁡\(N\|Y\)q=P\(N\|Y\)read from Tables[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T3)\(Qwen3\-32B\),[10](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A7.T10)\(QwQ\-32B\),[11](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A7.T11)\(R1\-Distill\)\. Actual counts are read from Tables[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T4),[13](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A9.T13),[14](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A9.T14)\. Across all nine cells, independence*overpredicts*\|c\|\|c\|by 2–7×\\timesand*underpredicts*\|b\|\|b\|by 2–10×\\times, but the directional inequality\|c\|\>\|b\|\|c\|\>\|b\|holds under both independence and the data\. The empirical ratios\|c\|/\|b\|\|c\|/\|b\|are uniformly smaller than the independence prediction \(e\.g\., 4\.8 vs\. 41 on Qwen3\-Adult\): within\-pair flip correlation dampens the base\-count asymmetry but cannot reverse it\.Two consistent patterns appear\. First, the directional inequality\|c\|\>\|b\|\|c\|\>\|b\|holds under both independence and the data on every cell: even purely independent per\-side flips would produce the dual\-effect asymmetry, given the observed nothink\-state population skew\. Second, the independence prediction is uniformly looser than the data: it overpredicts\|c\|\|c\|\(2–7×\\times\) and underpredicts\|b\|\|b\|\(2–10×\\times\), so the empirical\|c\|/\|b\|\|c\|/\|b\|ratios are55–100×100\\timessmaller than the independence\-bound ratios\. This gap quantifies within\-pair flip correlation: two instances of a counterfactual pair share most of their input prose and therefore tend to co\-flip rather than flip independently\. This correlation acts in the direction of dampening the base\-count asymmetry, but cannot reverse it\.

## Appendix IPer\-model pair\-state transition matrices

The pair\-state transition matricesTpairT^\{\\mathrm\{pair\}\}for QwQ\-32B and DeepSeek\-R1\-Distill\-Qwen\-32B are presented here, along with the per\-side stratifications\. The Qwen3\-32B counterpart is given in the main text \(Table[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T4)\)\. The qualitative pattern reproduces in every \(model, dataset\) cell:NN\\mathrm\{NN\}dominates the starting distribution,NN→M\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{M\}is the dominant cell\-ccchannel, and theNN→YY\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{YY\}en\-bloc rate varies by model\.

#### Model heterogeneity is in the channel mix\.

All three models exhibit the same\|c\|≫\|b\|\|c\|\\\!\\gg\\\!\|b\|mechanism \(§[4\.4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.SS4)\); what varies is the relative weight of two channels out ofNN\\mathrm\{NN\}: en\-bloc push toYY\\mathrm\{YY\}versus split intoM\\mathrm\{M\}\. Qwen3\-32B is the mostNN\\mathrm\{NN\}\-inert, withNN\\mathrm\{NN\}\-row stickiness89%/69%/98%89\\%/69\\%/98\\%across Adult/COMPAS/Credit \(Table[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T4)\) and the en\-blocNN→YY\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{YY\}channel never exceeding21%21\\%\. QwQ\-32B is en\-bloc\-aggressive, withNN→YY\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{YY\}at24%/48%/31%24\\%/48\\%/31\\%across the three datasets \(Table[13](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A9.T13)\)\. DeepSeek\-R1\-Distill is split\-aggressive, withNN→M\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{M\}peaking at16\.4%16\.4\\%on Adult \(Table[14](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#A9.T14)\)\.

AdultCOMPASCreditfromNN\\mathrm\{NN\}YY\\mathrm\{YY\}YN\\mathrm\{YN\}NY\\mathrm\{NY\}nnNN\\mathrm\{NN\}YY\\mathrm\{YY\}YN\\mathrm\{YN\}NY\\mathrm\{NY\}nnNN\\mathrm\{NN\}YY\\mathrm\{YY\}YN\\mathrm\{YN\}NY\\mathrm\{NY\}nnNN\\mathrm\{NN\}0\.6590\.6590\.2360\.2360\.055\\mathbf\{0\.055\}0\.050\\mathbf\{0\.050\}4,1494\{,\}1490\.4450\.4450\.4840\.4840\.016\\mathbf\{0\.016\}0\.054\\mathbf\{0\.054\}4,9814\{,\}9810\.5610\.5610\.3120\.3120\.050\\mathbf\{0\.050\}0\.077\\mathbf\{0\.077\}4,6164\{,\}616YY\\mathrm\{YY\}0\.0040\.0040\.9840\.9840\.006\\mathbf\{0\.006\}0\.006\\mathbf\{0\.006\}6906900\.0000\.0001\.0001\.0000\.000\\mathbf\{0\.000\}0\.000\\mathbf\{0\.000\}440\.0080\.0080\.9430\.9430\.012\\mathbf\{0\.012\}0\.037\\mathbf\{0\.037\}244244YN\\mathrm\{YN\}0\.0450\.0450\.8880\.8880\.0300\.0300\.0370\.0371341340\.0000\.0001\.0001\.0000\.0000\.0000\.0000\.00014140\.0090\.0090\.9650\.9650\.0090\.0090\.0180\.018114114NY\\mathrm\{NY\}0\.0000\.0001\.0001\.0000\.0000\.0000\.0000\.00027270\.0000\.0001\.0001\.0000\.0000\.0000\.0000\.000110\.0000\.0001\.0001\.0000\.0000\.0000\.0000\.0001010total2,7432\{,\}7431,8051\{,\}8052352352172175,0005\{,\}0002,2182\{,\}2182,4312\{,\}43182822692695,0005\{,\}0002,5942\{,\}5941,7921\{,\}7922332333653654,9844\{,\}984Table 13:Pair\-state transition matrixTpairT^\{\\mathrm\{pair\}\}for QwQ\-32B, per dataset \(forward: nothink→\\tothink\), withM\\mathrm\{M\}split intoYN\\mathrm\{YN\}andNY\\mathrm\{NY\}\.Compared with Qwen3\-32B \(Table[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30768#S4.T4)\), QwQ runs hotter on every channel: the en\-blocNN→YY\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{YY\}push peaks at48\.4%48\.4\\%on COMPAS \(half the originally\-agree\-No pairs are pushed wholesale to agree\-Yes\), and withinM\\mathrm\{M\}the cell\-ccsplit tilts strongly toward Non\-White on COMPAS \(NN→NY=0\.054\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{NY\}=0\.054vsNN→YN=0\.016\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{YN\}=0\.016\) and toward Female on Credit \(NN→NY=0\.077\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{NY\}=0\.077vsNN→YN=0\.050\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{YN\}=0\.050\); the YY side reinforces the Credit tilt \(YY→NY=0\.037\\mathrm\{YY\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{NY\}=0\.037vsYY→YN=0\.012\\mathrm\{YY\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{YN\}=0\.012\)\.AdultCOMPASCreditfromNN\\mathrm\{NN\}YY\\mathrm\{YY\}YN\\mathrm\{YN\}NY\\mathrm\{NY\}nnNN\\mathrm\{NN\}YY\\mathrm\{YY\}YN\\mathrm\{YN\}NY\\mathrm\{NY\}nnNN\\mathrm\{NN\}YY\\mathrm\{YY\}YN\\mathrm\{YN\}NY\\mathrm\{NY\}nnNN\\mathrm\{NN\}0\.7280\.7280\.1080\.1080\.087\\mathbf\{0\.087\}0\.078\\mathbf\{0\.078\}3,7153\{,\}7150\.7260\.7260\.1420\.1420\.046\\mathbf\{0\.046\}0\.086\\mathbf\{0\.086\}1,3561\{,\}3560\.5650\.5650\.3380\.3380\.056\\mathbf\{0\.056\}0\.042\\mathbf\{0\.042\}4,9714\{,\}971YY\\mathrm\{YY\}0\.0070\.0070\.9640\.9640\.012\\mathbf\{0\.012\}0\.018\\mathbf\{0\.018\}1,1861\{,\}1860\.0000\.0001\.0001\.0000\.000\\mathbf\{0\.000\}0\.000\\mathbf\{0\.000\}70700\.0000\.0001\.0001\.0000\.000\\mathbf\{0\.000\}0\.000\\mathbf\{0\.000\}1414YN\\mathrm\{YN\}0\.0590\.0590\.7350\.7350\.1030\.1030\.1030\.1036868––––000\.0000\.0001\.0001\.0000\.0000\.0000\.0000\.00055NY\\mathrm\{NY\}0\.1000\.1000\.6670\.6670\.1330\.1330\.1000\.10030300\.0000\.0001\.0001\.0000\.0000\.0000\.0000\.000440\.0000\.0001\.0001\.0000\.0000\.0000\.0000\.00055total2,7182\{,\}7181,6141\{,\}6143483483193194,9994\{,\}99998598526626663631161161,4301\{,\}4302,8082\{,\}8081,7041\{,\}7042762762072074,9954\{,\}995Table 14:Pair\-state transition matrixTpairT^\{\\mathrm\{pair\}\}for DeepSeek\-R1\-Distill\-Qwen\-32B, per dataset \(forward: nothink→\\tothink\), withM\\mathrm\{M\}split intoYN\\mathrm\{YN\}andNY\\mathrm\{NY\}\.R1\-Distill has the highest aggregatedNN→M\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{M\}rates of the three models \(Adult:NN→YN\+NN→NY=0\.165\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{YN\}\+\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{NY\}=0\.165, the per\-model peak\); the SFT\-distillation regime is the most aggressive at producing pair\-level splits rather than en\-bloc pushes\. The COMPAS row reflects∼72%\\sim 72\\%refusal under R1\-Distill’s prompt sensitivity \(only1,4301\{,\}430parseable pairs\); on the parseable subsetNN\\mathrm\{NN\}tilts strongly toward Non\-White \(NN→NY=0\.086\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{NY\}=0\.086vsNN→YN=0\.046\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{YN\}=0\.046\), matching QwQ on COMPAS\. On Credit, the direction reverses \(NN→YN=0\.056\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{YN\}=0\.056vsNN→NY=0\.042\\mathrm\{NN\}\\\!\\to\\\!\\mathrm\{NY\}=0\.042, Male\-leaning\), opposite to QwQ\.