With release of Deepseek V4 I wanted see how the model sizes are trending over time. Open source models are constantly getting smaller and better. The trend is that by this time next year, we probably will have Opus 4.5 level models on consumer grade laptops (sounds unlikely?!).

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deepseek-v4 open-source model-efficiency trend-analysis consumer-hardware

Summary

The author analyzes model size and performance trends following Deepseek V4 Flash, suggesting that open-source models are shrinking in size while improving, and predicts Opus 4.5-level models could run on consumer laptops within a year.

I was surprised to see that Deepseek V4 Flash is extremely smart and small enough to fit in setup that can be built with < $50,000. Expensive, but not a datacenter. So I wanted to see the trend over time of model sizes and their scores and created above plots using Opus/Sonnet 5. I am not an expert in LLMs and I am sure there are physical limitations to small models. But I also don't know how far we are from reaching the limits - maybe the small models have a long way to go before being saturated. I am hoping the trend continues and, if it does, then we should get Opus 4.5 level models on Macbook Air/pro (AA score 30-40) by next year! [I don't trust trend of scores above 40 that as there are very few data points]
Original Article

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@FuckAnthropic: Conducted a comparative analysis. Overall, DeepSeek V4 Flash-0731 is roughly a model at the level between Opus 4.7 and 4.8, entering the frontier Agent model competition with a minimal activation scale, and at about 1/12 to 1/60 of the token cost to enter the frontier Ag…

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The author's comparative analysis concludes that DeepSeek V4 Flash-0731 achieves Opus 4.7–4.8 level performance with an extremely small activation scale, entering the frontier agent model tier at a very low token cost. It surpasses GLM-5.2 overall, but its shortfalls remain difficult repository-level coding and long-horizon engineering.