OpenAI/Anthropic’s combined valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion assumes they will continue owning the most valuable intelligence. open weight models will become equally capable, their proprietary weights lose scarcity, API prices collapse, and their valuations plummet. People will start cycling out.
Summary
The article argues that as open weight models become equally capable to proprietary ones, OpenAI and Anthropic's valuations will plummet, while companies like Fireworks AI will capture value by operating open models as a neutral infrastructure layer.
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