Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

OP here: I created this visualization tool as the byproduct of a supply chain class I taught at Columbia. The pedagogical exercise grew into a full blown visualization and paper about global oil trade.<p>The model: The mechanics are the same as the financial network Eisenberg-Noe: Instead of banks, every country consumes oil interconnected via bilateral trading. Shocks propagate throughout the network, depleting oil reserves when bottleneck nodes (such as the Strait of Hormuz) are blocked.<p>Insights: The interesting part is the mechanics of how the crisis unfolds: for example, France receives 0 oil from Hormuz directly, yet their reserves are depleted faster because other countries reactively increase their safety oil stock, increasing oil price, making stockouts more expensive for everyone.<p>The model also gives price dynamics which are interesting on their own: the price increase is not immediate, it follows sequentially as countries reserves deplete.<p>Some caveats: 1. For producer nodes, depletion means their export slack is reduced&#x2F;exhausted. 2. No sanctioned trade (UN Comtrade data)<p>Technical Details: The visualization is 600 lines of flask plus js frontend (LLM assisted visualization with ground-truth matching the original numerical exercise of the paper)<p>Paper with proofs&#x2F;theory: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;abs&#x2F;2607.17491" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;abs&#x2F;2607.17491</a>