From $28 to $195: Why Serenity Keeps Adding to $AAOI?

After reading this, you’ll fully understand why Serenity keeps being bullish on $AAOI, with the stock price climbing all the way up — yet she just keeps adding more as it rises… So I went back and studied 33 of Serenity’s tweets about $AAOI.

What I found wasn’t just a simple record of stock opinions, but a very systematic supply chain deduction process. Many key bottlenecks were identified by her very early on.

Just by looking at the name, $AAOI seems like an ordinary optical module company. But following Serenity’s logic, you realize its real importance lies in a critical position within the AI data center optical interconnect supply chain:

$AAOI is an optical module company that manufactures its own laser chips

That sentence is the core of understanding $AAOI.

I. How Serenity Has Been Tracking $AAOI

Serenity started bullish on $AAOI very early

She herself recalled that she went long when $AAOI was around $20–30. At that time, her thesis was that Amazon and Microsoft might be qualifying specific optical transceivers for their own ASIC programs.

Later, as more information came out, she refined the details: those transceivers might be less “customized” than she initially thought, and more interchangeable and mass-producible.

The core direction never changed.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·May 27Back when AAOI was ~20-30 when I went long:

I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs.

Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible.

Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, AXTI played out soShow moreQuoteSerenity@aleabitoreddit·Dec 23, 2025AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today.

From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs.

AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium.

InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 x.com/aleabitoreddit…211731.1K529K

Later, when $AAOI reached around $70, the company mentioned 1.6T and volume orders from hyperscalers in its earnings call. Serenity upgraded $AAOI to higher conviction.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 1$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now.

I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT.

High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders withShow moreQuoteGVDFather@GVDInvestor·May 31Replying to @aleabitoredditWhat do you think of $AAOI at these levels? Too late? Looking at a 12-24 month horizon, it’s got a super high fwd PE like around 85 or higher2001741.9K1.4M

Then, as $AAOI reached $150–170, she still said she would keep buying on dips.

She even said $AAOI is currently her favorite US optical long.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 5Replying to @DanyloAkymenko$AAOI is my current favorite US long.

I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170.

$JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today.

$MRVL if you think it hits $1TShow more1147437121K

From this timeline, it’s clear that in her framework, $AAOI is a core node in the AI photonics supply chain, not just a short-term trade.

II. Why Is She More Bullish as $AAOI’s Market Cap Gets Larger?

This is important.

A normal person might think a company going from $2B to $6B to $13B market cap has already run up a lot.

But Serenity’s view is the opposite: at $13B market cap, she is actually more bullish on $AAOI than she was at $2B or $6B.

The reason is simple: industrial information is becoming clearer.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·May 29I’m actually even more bullish on $AAOI at $13B MC given all the recent laser bottlenecks…

Than I was back at $2B or $6B.

I also think markets missed the analyst note around potential long term supply agreements with $NVDA or $AMD.

If they’re projecting $471M in H1 2027…Show moreQuoteMi204839@mi20483980476·Mar 19Replying to @aleabitoredditYou’re delusional if you think it’s undervalued at 6b mcap2261871.9K674K

Early on, $AAOI was just a turnaround story for optical modules. Later, more and more information pointed in the same direction:

AI data centers are pushing optical interconnect demand into a new phase

800G / 1.6T optical transceiver demand is ramping up.

Hyperscaler demand for high-speed optical modules and laser capacity is becoming increasingly clear.

Players like AMD, NVDA, Amazon, and Microsoft will all pay more attention to the upstream optical supply chain.

Most critically, laser capacity is becoming a bottleneck

So Serenity’s logic for $AAOI has evolved from a low-turnaround story to a re-rating of a critical supply chain node.

She even made a very aggressive prediction: in a year, $AAOI’s market cap could reach $70B.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·May 30Replying to @Batemanzm75I’m gonna go ahead and make a random prediction in a year:

$AAOI - $70B MC $SIVE - $30B MC Foci - $15B MC Shunsin - $10B MC1051881.4K486K

III. What Does $AAOI Actually Do?

$AAOI, full name Applied Optoelectronics, is an optical communications company.

Its products serve four main markets:

• AI / Data Centers

• CATV (Cable TV) Broadband

• Telecom

• FTTH (Fiber to the Home)

But the market is now most focused on its data center business.

AI data centers require massive amounts of high-speed optical modules. Between GPUs, servers and switches, and rack-to-rack, high-speed optical interconnects are essential.

The larger the AI cluster, the greater the data transmission pressure.

In the past, data centers mainly focused on 100G and 400G. Now they are upgrading to 800G and 1.6T, and will continue moving to higher speeds in the future.

This is the backdrop for $AAOI being re-evaluated.

Serenity has repeatedly placed $AAOI within the photonics / optical / CPO supply chain in multiple tweets, rather than treating it as a generic hardware stock.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·May 31Very grateful for the objective coverage in De Tijd!

It’s cool to see my work in Belgium’s top newspaper.

Also very refreshing to see a journalist cover $AAOI, $XFAB, $MRVL Celestial, and the nuances behind my supply chain thesis in CPO + Photonics.

Ty KLismont for the photo.QuoteEllen Vermorgen@elvermo·May 30my aim is true :- )

to inform small-scale investors as clearly, objectively & fairly as possible x.com/aleabitoreddit…160981.7K863K

IV. Where is the Real Bottleneck in the Optical Module Supply Chain?

Many people look at optical modules and only see who is selling them.

Serenity @aleabitoreddit looks further upstream: which link in the entire supply chain is hardest to scale production?

The chain looks roughly like this:

AI Data Centers → Switch Systems → Optical Modules / Transceivers → Laser Chips → InP Epitaxy / Wafer Fabrication

The further upstream you go, the fewer suppliers there are, the slower capacity expansion is, and the higher the technology barriers.

On the surface, everyone seems to be selling optical modules. But one layer deeper, the real scramble is for high-speed laser chip capacity.

That’s what makes $AAOI special.

When discussing photonics, Serenity repeatedly mentions a core logic: in this market, especially for laser companies, the problem isn’t how much demand exists, but “how much can you produce?”

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 15Today, there’s a new report that China eased InP substrate exports.

Which is expected to relieve mass production bottlenecks in the photonics market (source: Digitimes)

My optical positions are very happy to hear this:

From $AXTI (substrates), $IQE (epiwafers) to $AAOIShow more2062861.6K409K

This statement is critical.

If demand explodes but upstream laser, epiwafer, InP substrate, and CW laser capacity cannot scale, then the companies that truly benefit will be those that control key scarce capacity.

V. What Makes $AAOI Unique: It Makes Its Own InP Lasers

InP, full name Indium Phosphide, is a key material for high-speed lasers.

800G and 1.6T optical modules require high-performance laser chips, and these laser chips cannot be made by just any factory.

InP epitaxy, wafer fabrication, laser design, yield ramp, packaging, and testing all require long-term process accumulation.

Many optical module companies are more like module integrators — they need to buy laser chips from upstream companies like Lumentum or Coherent.

$AAOI is different.

$AAOI is one of the few companies that both makes its own laser chips and integrates optical modules.

It does both downstream modules and holds key upstream components in-house.

That’s vertical integration.

In a normal cycle, vertical integration might just be a cost advantage. But in an AI data center expansion cycle, it can become a supply chain advantage.

Because when the industry truly faces a laser chip shortage, the most important question becomes:

How much can you produce?

When Serenity mentioned $AAOI on June 17, she said it has the scarce laser capacity that AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for, and AOI has been in mass production for years — many bears underestimate the difficulty of ramping optical manufacturing.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 17I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long…

Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right).

They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for.

WhileShow moreQuoteAMITESHKUMAR@Amiteshkumar840·Jun 17Replying to @aleabitoredditAAOI又高跳下落,对此你怎么看1911361.7K775K

This is what I believe is the most important thing about $AAOI after my research:

It controls the scarcest upstream layer in the optical module supply chain.

VI. Why Are 800G / 1.6T So Critical for $AAOI?

Network bandwidth demand in AI data centers is rising rapidly.

From 400G to 800G, and then to 1.6T, it’s not just a simple numerical change. It’s an upgrade of the entire optical module system.

The higher the speed, the higher the requirements for lasers, DSPs, packaging, thermal management, and signal integrity.

Especially for 1.6T, a single module must handle much larger data throughput, demanding even higher performance and consistency from upstream laser chips.

That’s why Serenity keeps mentioning 800G / 1.6T.

She looks at $AAOI not just for its current products, but for its potential to ride the next-generation AI data center network upgrade cycle.

She once said $AAOI has been one of her averaging-up names since $28, because the demand for 800G / 1.6T optical transceivers is enormous, and $AAOI is targeting the largest TAM in this space.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 5$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28.

Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute?

There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers…

Then this company is targeting the largestShow more1731982.3K580K

She also mentioned that H1 entering H2 2027 could be a massive inflection point for photonics players. The market is still focused on software and AI capex, but the photonics theme might just be a little early.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 2I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long…

+20.1% today.

If you want the next $SNDK, you’re looking at it.

I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players.

We’re just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone isShow moreQuoteSerenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 1$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now.

I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT.

High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with x.com/GVDInvestor/st…3443172.9K946K

If AI clusters continue to expand in the future, data center demand for high-speed optical modules will keep increasing.

Then companies like $AAOI, which both make optical modules and control some laser capability themselves, will become more important.

VII. AMD Scrambling for CW Laser — Why Is $AAOI Named?

Serenity recently mentioned a very key piece of information: AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply and negotiating large-scale purchase orders to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by Nvidia.

She named two obvious beneficiaries:

$SIVE and $AAOI

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 16New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply.

And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce)

Obvious CW laser beneficiaries:

• $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers referenceShow more3262282K608K

The logic behind this is simple:

AI chip competition is not just about GPUs; it’s also about supply chain competition.

If Nvidia locks up key capacity for EML, CW laser, optical modules, packaging, etc. ahead of time, then companies like AMD, Amazon, and Microsoft cannot just wait for natural supplier delivery.

They must go upstream and lock capacity early.

Serenity has said that hyperscalers should lock up laser, epiwafer, and even InP substrate supply earlier to avoid being blocked by Nvidia.

This logic is now slowly playing out.

She further explained that Nvidia has already bottlenecked the entire industry with EML capacity, and is now repeating the same playbook with CW capacity. Players like AMD, Amazon, and Microsoft must adapt or be left behind.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 16Replying to @AsianbeBlazinOther way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity.

And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial)

I said this a few months ago, we’d see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN,Show more71017024K

$AAOI’s value is also reunderstood in this context.

It stands at the critical node of tight laser supply, not just as an optical module assembly plant.

VIII. SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 — How to Understand This?

Serenity later revised her ranking.

She said SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 5Replying to @ClewyCat$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above.

Generally a fan of:

• $SIVE (CPO lasers)
• $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo)
• Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA)
• Shunsin (Packaging/Test)
• Win Semi (foundry)
• $TSEM (foundry)
• $SOI (silicon photonics) -Show more3064615147K

This isn’t downgrading $AAOI; it’s just a more precise positioning within the photonics supply chain.

SIVE is more focused on CPO lasers.

$AAOI is end-to-end pluggable / CPO — meaning it has both pluggable optical modules and is extending into next-generation optical interconnect architectures.

This shows that Serenity isn’t looking at a single ticker; she’s looking at a complete photonics supply chain framework.

In her framework, SIVE is a purer CPO laser play, while $AAOI is the representative of vertical integration (optical modules + lasers) that is very important in the US market.

IX. Pluggable vs. CPO — Not a Simple Binary Choice

Many people ask: if CPO takes off in the future, will current pluggable optical modules become obsolete?

Serenity’s view is closer to “parallel development.”

Right now, $AAOI’s important foundation is pluggable, especially 800G / 1.6T optical modules.

At the same time, $AAOI is also showcasing CPO / NPO related capabilities, including 6.4T OBO, ELSFP, and 800G / 1.6T optical interconnects for next-gen AI networks.

Serenity has clearly stated that $AAOI’s current revenues are dominated by pluggable, and these architectures will happen in parallel, not one or the other.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 10Replying to @Matthew93889052$AAOI revenues are dominated by pluggable.

These are concurrent architectures happening in parallel, not one or the other.

But maybe past 2029, we’ll likely see some pluggable revenue be cannablized8515935K

So the key for $AAOI is whether it can extend from the current pluggable optical module cycle into the next generation of AI optical interconnect architectures.

That’s also why Serenity continues to focus on it.

X. US Domestic Manufacturing — Another Important Plus

Serenity has also emphasized that the market should value US domestic supply chain companies like $AAOI.

In the past, much optical module manufacturing and supply chain was in Asia.

But now AI infrastructure has become a strategic industry, and the US cannot rely entirely on external supply chains.

$AAOI’s headquarters, wafer fab, advanced engineering, and production facilities are in Sugar Land, Texas, along with manufacturing capabilities in Taiwan and Ningbo.

More importantly, $AAOI is expanding its US domestic capacity.

This means it is not just an optical module company; it could become part of the localization of US AI data center infrastructure.

Serenity has said the market should cheer for domestic champions like $AAOI, because its laser fabrication and production are critical AI infrastructure. Especially if $AAOI hits the revenue projections she mentioned after repatriating production to the US, it should not be dismissed as a meme stock or bubble.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 12Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI.

Since it’s ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear.

Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand…

With $INTC, $IQE,Show more2271171.6K739K

In a cycle where AI, power, data centers, and optical interconnects are all being repriced, the label of US domestic manufacturing will become increasingly important.

XI. My Research Conclusion: The Core of $AAOI Is Not “Optical Modules,” but “Self-Controlled Scarce Layer”

Based on Serenity’s tweets, I continued to dig deeper, and my core conclusion is:

$AAOI’s biggest differentiator is that it controls the scarce layer of InP lasers itself.

Ordinary optical module companies are more like downstream integrators.

$AAOI is more like:

• An optical module company
• A laser chip company
• An InP capacity player
• A US domestic AI optical interconnect supply chain node

These identities combined are why Serenity keeps mentioning $AAOI.

If you just say “AI data centers need optical modules,” that logic is too broad.

What truly adds value is to continue asking upstream:

Whose capacity is tightest? Who is hardest to scale production? Who can make key components themselves? Who becomes a critical node when hyperscalers scramble for supply?

The answer will gradually point to companies like $AAOI.

Serenity had already placed $AAOI in her high-conviction photonics framework back in 2025. Later, when looking back, she said $AAOI went from $30 to $175, and although some early details were slightly off, the core direction was correct.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 12Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well!

From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175

And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM!

This was back when I had close to no followers!

I got some nuances slightly off before moreShow moreQuoteSerenity@aleabitoreddit·Dec 12, 2025I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them.

Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell.

But there’s a new one I found out about.

A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis:

Name x.com/aleabitoreddit…304891.4K608K

XII. Putting It All Together

At this point, the $AAOI story is quite clear.

AI data center explosion → systemic change.

Optical interconnect bandwidth surge → industrial change.

800G / 1.6T ramp-up → product change.

InP laser tightness → supply chain bottleneck.

$AAOI making its own laser chips → company differentiation.

Serenity placed it in the CPO + Photonics supply chain framework very early. As demand from AMD, NVDA, Amazon, Microsoft, and others for upstream optical capacity became clearer, the market gradually understood $AAOI’s value.

Serenity herself summarized that she wrote three major themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, from $AAOI to $NBIS, to the memory direction, these theses are gradually playing out. She believes the core is to first know what the next market theme is, then pick the winners, and concentrate on them.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 15I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on:

Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory.

Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS.

Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant sellingShow more3032212.3K457K

She also said that technical analysis is more like astrology for traders. That perspective explains why she looks at $AAOI this way: not by chart patterns, but by supply chain, capacity bottlenecks, technology roadmaps, and production scarcity.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit·Jun 14This is gonna upset a lot of people:

But TA is astrology for traders.

It’s confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries.

Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology.

$SIVE didn’t go up 1900%Show moreQuoteMax Williamson@max_williamson·Jun 13Replying to @aleabitoredditDo you use TA at all or are you 100% bottle neck research?5203262.7K820K

Final Summary

$AAOI’s most core label:

An AI optical module company that manufactures its own laser chips.

It sits at a critical position in the AI data center optical interconnect upgrade.

As data centers move from 400G to 800G and 1.6T, what truly becomes scarce is the ability to produce enough high-speed laser chips and optical modules.

Serenity @aleabitoreddit went long on $AAOI around $20–30, increased conviction after $70, and still considered it her favorite US optical long at $150–170.

What she values is not short-term stock price, but $AAOI’s position in the AI photonics supply chain:

• 800G / 1.6T optical module demand
• CW laser supply tightness
• InP laser capability
• Hyperscaler capacity locking
• US domestic manufacturing
• Architecture upgrade from pluggable to CPO / NPO

All these clues together form the complete story of $AAOI.

So, learning about $AAOI from Serenity isn’t really about learning a ticker; it’s about learning her supply chain thinking:

In the AI supply chain, the most worthwhile companies to study are often not the hottest end-user companies, but those that control upstream bottlenecks, making the entire system dependent on them.

$AAOI is one of those critical nodes that Serenity identified in US-listed photonics.

This content is compiled and interpreted from Serenity’s (@aleabitoreddit) public tweets about $AAOI. Learning and Research Process Record: 梭哈.AI @SUOHA_AI