2022年跨境喜马拉雅流域冰湖溃决洪水最坏情况情景研究

Hacker News Top 论文

摘要

本研究论文探讨了跨境喜马拉雅流域冰湖溃决洪水的最坏情况情景,通过综合方法和多项科学研究评估当前和未来的危害。

暂无内容
查看原文
查看缓存全文

缓存时间: 2026/08/27 00:15

# 当前与未来情景下冰川湖溃决洪水危害:一个跨境喜马拉雅流域的最坏情景 来源:https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3765/2022/nhess-22-3765-2022.html Allen, S\. K\., Linsbauer, A\., Randhawa, S\. S\., Huggel, C\., Rana, P\., and Kumari, A\.: 印度喜马偕尔邦的冰川湖溃决洪水风险:一种考虑当前与未来威胁的综合前瞻方法,Natural Hazards, 84, 1741–1763,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2511-x, 2016\. Allen, S\. K\., Zhang, G\., Wang, W\., Yao, T\., and Bolch, T\.: 利用大规模自动化评估方法揭示整个青藏高原潜在危险冰川湖,Sci\. Bull\., 64, 435–445,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011, 2019\. Allen, S\. K\., Frey, H\., Haeberli, W\., Huggel, C\., Chiarle, M\., and Geertsema, M\.: 山区冰川与冻土灾害评估原则,Oxford Research Encyclopedias: Natural Hazard Science, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK,https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.356, 2022\. Benn, D\. I\., Bolch, T\., Hands, K\., Gulley, J\., Luckman, A\., Nicholson, L\. I\., Quincey, D\., Thompson, S\., Toumi, R\., and Wiseman, S\.: 珠穆朗玛峰地区表碛覆盖冰川对近期变暖的响应及其对溃决洪水风险的启示,Earth Sci\. Rev\., 114, 156–174, 2012\. Bhardwaj, A\. and Sam, L\.: 2021年印度喜马拉雅查莫利岩冰崩塌场址过去与最近斜坡失稳事件的重建与表征,Remote Sens\.\-Basel, 14, 949,https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14040949, 2022\. Bhattacharya A\., Bolch T\., Mukherjee K\., King O\., Menounos B\., Kapitsa V\., Neckel N\., Yang W\., and Yao T\.: 自1960年代以来多时相卫星观测揭示的中亚高山冰川对气候变化的响应,Nat\. Commun\., 12, 4133,https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24180-y, 2021\. Bolch, T\., Shea, J\. M\., Liu, S\., Azam, F\. M\., Gao, Y\., Gruber, S\., Immerzeel, W\. W\., Kulkarni, A\., Li, H\., Tahir, A\. A\., Zhang, G\., and Zhang, Y\.: 印度河-恒河平原周边区域冰冻圈现状与变化,见:The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment, edited by: Wester, P\., Mishra, A\., Mukherji, A\., and Shrestha, A Springer International Publishing, Cham, 209–255,https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_7, 2019\. Bolch T\., Yao T\., Bhattacharya A\., Hu Y\., King O\., Liu L\., Pronk J\. B\., Rastner P\., and Zhang G\.: 利用地球观测研究普伊曲流域(喜马拉雅中部)冰川、冰川湖和冰岩流的发生、特征与变化,Remote Sensing, 14\(8\):1927,https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14081927, 2022\. Carlà, T\., Intrieri, E\., Raspini, F\., Bardi, F\., Farina, P\., Ferretti, A\., Colombo, D\., Novali, F\., and Casagli, N\.:从卫星InSAR预测灾难性斜坡失效的前景,Sci\. Rep\.\-UK, 9, 14137,https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50792-y, 2019\. Carrivick, J\. L\. and Tweed, F\. S\.: 冰川溃决洪水对社会影响的全球评估,Global Planet\. Change, 144, 1–16,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.001, 2016\. Chen, F\., Zhang, M\., Guo, H\., Allen, S\., Kargel, J\. S\., Haritashya, U\. K\., and Watson, C\. S\.: 2008年至2017年中亚高山冰川湖30米年度数据集,Earth Syst\. Sci\. Data, 13, 741–766,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-741-2021, 2021\. Chen, N\. S\., Hu, G\. Sh\., Deng, W\., Khanal, N\., Zhu, Y\. H\., and Han, D\.: 跨境科西河流域的水文灾害研究,Nat\. Hazards Earth Syst\. Sci\., 13, 795–808,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-795-2013, 2013\. Clague, J\. J\. and Evans, S\. G\.: 不列颠哥伦比亚省冰碛堰塞湖灾难性排水综述,Quaternary Sci\. Rev\., 19, 1763–1783, 2000\. Cook, K\. L\., Andermann, C\., Gimbert, F\., Adhikari, B\. R\., and Hovius, N\.: 冰川湖溃决洪水作为喜马拉雅河流侵蚀的驱动因素,Science, 362, 53–57,https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat4981, 2018\. Cook, S\. J\. and Quincey, D\. J\.: 阿尔卑斯冰川湖体积估算,Earth Surf\. Dynam\., 3, 559–575,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-559-2015, 2015\. Emmer, A\. and Cochachin, A\.: 布兰卡山脉、北美山脉和喜马拉雅山脉冰碛堰塞湖失效的原因与机制,AUC Geographica, 48, 5–15, 2013\. Emmer, A\., Harrison, S\., Mergili, M\., Allen, S\., Frey, H\., and Huggel, C\.: 秘鲁布兰卡山脉70年的湖泊演变与冰川湖溃决洪水及其未来启示,Geomorphology, 365, 107178,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107178, 2020\. Farinotti, D\., Huss, M\., Fürst, J\. J\., Landmann, J\., Machguth, H\., Maussion, F\., and Pandit, A\.: 全球所有冰川冰厚分布的共识估算,Nat\. Geosci\., 12, 168–173,https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0300-3, 2019a\. Farinotti, D\., Round, V\., Huss, M\., Compagno, L\., and Zekollari, H\): 未来无冰川流域的大型水电与蓄水潜力,Nature, 575, 341–344,https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1740-z, 2019b\. Frey, H\., Haeberli, W\., Linsbauer, A\., Huggel, C\., and Paul, F\): 预见未来冰川湖形成及相关危险潜力的多层策略,Nat\. Hazards Earth Syst\. Sci\., 10, 339–352,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-339-2010, 2010\. Frey, H\., Huggel, C\., Chisolm, R\. E\., Baer, P\., McArdell, B\. W\., Cochachin, A\., and Portocarrero, C\): 秘鲁布兰卡山脉瓦拉斯的多源冰川湖溃决洪水风险评估与制图,Front\. Earth Sci\., 6, 210,https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00210, 2018\. Fujita, K\., Sakai, A\., Takenaka, S\., Nuimura, T\., Surazakov, A\. B\., Sawagaki, T\., and Yamanokuchi, T\): 喜马拉雅冰川湖的潜在洪水量,Nat\. Hazards Earth Syst\. Sci\., 13, 1827–1839,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1827-2013, 2013\. Furian, W\., Loibl, D\., and Schneider, C\): 中亚高山的未来冰川湖:清单及周边斜坡的危险潜力评估,J\. Glaciol\., 67 \(264\), 653–670,https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.18, 2021\. GAPHAZ: 山区冰川与冻土灾害评估:技术指导文件,prepared by: Allen, S\., Frey, H\., and Huggel, C\., 国际冰冻圈科学协会和国际冻土协会山区冰川与冻土灾害常设小组(GAPHAZ), Zurich, Switzerland/Lima, Peru, 72 pp\., 2017\. Gardelle, J\., Arnaud, Y\., and Berthier, E\): 1990年至2009年印度河-恒河山脉冰川湖的对比演变,Global Planet\. Change, 75, 47–55, 2011\. Haeberli, W\., Buetler, M\., Huggel, C\., Lehmann Friedli, T\., Schaub, Y\., and Schleiss, A\. J\): 退冰高山地区的新湖泊——机遇与风险,Climatic Change, 139, 201–214, 2016\. Haeberli, W\., Schaub, Y\., and Huggel, C\): 退化冻土进入退冰山脉新湖泊的滑坡风险增加,Geomorphology, 293, 405–417, 2017\. Haritashya, U\. K\., Kargel, J\. S\., Shugar, D\. H\., Leonard, G\. J\., Strattman, K\., Watson, C\. S\., Shean, D\., Harrison, S\., Mandli, K\. T\., and Regmi, D\): 尼泊尔喜马拉雅大型冰川湖的演化与控制因素,Remote Sens\.\-Basel, 10, 1–31,https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10050798, 2018\. Hock, R\., Rasul, G\., Adler, C\., Cáceres, B\., Gruber, S\., Hirabayashi, Y\., Jackson, M\., Kääb, A\., Kang, S\., Kutuzov, S\., Milner, A\., Molau, U\., Morin, S\., Orlove, B\., and Steltzer, H\): 高山地区,见:IPCC关于气候变化中海洋和冰冻圈的特别报告,edited by: Pörtner, H\.\-O\., Roberts, D\. C\., Masson\-Delmotte, V\., Zhai, P\., Tignor, M\., Poloczanska, E\., Mintenbeck, K\., Alegría, A\., Nicolai, M\., Okem, A\., Petzold, J\., Rama, B\., and Weyer, N\. M\., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 131–202,https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.004, 2019\. Huggel, C\., Haeberli, W\., Kääb, A\., Bieri, D\., and Richardson, S\): 瑞士阿尔卑斯冰川灾害评估程序,Can\. Geotech\. J\., 41, 1068–1083, 2004\. Huggel, C\., Cochachin, A\., Drenkhan, F\., Fluixá\-Sanmartín, J\., Frey, H\., García Hernández, J\., Jurt, C\., Muñoz, R\., Price, K\., and Vicuña, L\): 秘鲁513冰川湖:早期预警服务开发的教训,WMO Bulletin, 69, 45–52, 2020\. Kääb, A\., Jacquemart, M\., Gilbert, A\., Leinss, S\., Girod, L\., Huggel, C\., Falaschi, D\., Ugalde, F\., Petrakov, D\., Chernomorets, S\., Dokukin, M\., Paul, F\., Gascoin, S\., Berthier, E\., and Kargel, J\. S\): 低角度山地冰川的突然大体积脱离——比想象中更频繁?,The Cryosphere, 15, 1751–1785,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, 2021\. Kargel, J\. S\., Leonard, G\. J\., Shugar, D\. H\., Haritashya, U\. K\., Bevington, A\., Fielding, E\. J\., Fujita, K\., Geertsema, M\., Miles, E\. S\., Steiner, J\., Anderson, E\., Bajracharya, S\., Bawden, G\. W\., Breashears, D\. F\., Byers, A\., Collins, B\., Dhital, M\. R\., Donnellan, A\., Evans, T\. L\., Geai, M\. L\., Glasscoe, M\. T\., Green, D\., Gurung, D\. R\., Heijenk, R\., Hilborn, A\., Hudnut, K\., Huyck, C\., Immerzeel, W\. W\., Liming, J\., Jibson, R\., Kääb, A\., Khanal, N\. R\., Kirschbaum, D\., Kraaijenbrink, P\. D\., Lamsal, D\., Shiyin, L\., Mingyang, L\., McKinney, D\., Nahirnick, N\. K\., Zhuotong, N\., Ojha, S\., Olsenholler, J\., Painter, T\. H\., Pleasants, M\., Pratima, K\. C\., Yuan, Q\. I\., Raup, B\. H\., Regmi, D\., Rounce, D\. R\., Sakai, A\., Donghui, S\., Shea, J\. M\., Shrestha, A\. B\., Shukla, A\., Stumm, D\., van der Kooij, M\., Voss, K\., Xin, W\., Weihs, B\., Wolfe, D\., Lizong, W\., Xiaojun, Y\., Yoder, M\. R\., and Young, N\): 尼泊尔2015年廓尔喀地震诱发的地质灾害的地貌与地质控制,Science, 351, 6269,https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8353, 2016\. Khanal, N\. R\., Mool, P\. K\., Shrestha, A\. B\., Rasul, G\., Ghimire, P\. K\., Shrestha, R\. B\., and Joshi, S\. P\): 冰川湖溃决洪水风险评估的综合方法与实践,以尼泊尔及跨境地区为例,Int\. J\. Water\. Resour\. D\., 31, 219–237, 2015a\. Khanal, N\. R\., Hu, J\.\-M\., and Mool, P\): 喜马拉雅中部普伊曲/博特科西/逊科西河流域的冰川湖溃决洪水风险,Mt\. Res\. Dev\., 35, 351–364, 2015b\. King, O\): 喜马拉雅中部普伊曲流域某冰川的表面高程估算,Zenodo \[data set\],https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7333894, 2022\. King, O\., Dehecq, A\., Quincey, D\., and Carrivick, J\): 喜马拉雅中部入湖与入陆冰川几何与动力学演化的对比,Global Planet\. Change, 167, 46–60,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.05.006, 2018\. King, O\., Bhattacharya, A\., Bhambri, R\., and Bolch, T\): 冰川湖加剧喜马拉雅冰川物质损失,Sci\. Rep\.\-UK, 9, 18145,https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-53733-x, 2019\. King, O\., Bhattacharya, A\., Ghuffar, S\., Tait, A\., Guilford, S\., Elmore, A\. C\., and Bolch, T\): 珠穆朗玛峰周边六十年的冰川质量变化通过历史与当代影像揭示,One Earth, 3, 608–620,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.019, 2020\. Korup, O\. and Tweed, F\): 山区地形中的冰、冰碛和滑坡堰塞坝,Quarternary Sci\. Rev\., 26, 3406–3422, 2007\. Kraaijenbrink, P\. D\. A\., Bierkens, M\. F\. P\., Lutz, A\. F\., and Immerzeel, W\. W\): 全球气温上升1.5摄氏度对亚洲冰川的影响,Nature, 549, 5–7,https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23878, 2017\. Linsbauer, A\., Paul, F\., and Haeberli, W\): 使用GlabTop对整个山脉范围冰川厚度分布和基底地形进行建模:一种快速稳健方法的应用,J\. Geophys\. Res\., 117, F03007,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002313, 2012\. Linsbauer, A\., Paul, F\., Machguth, H\., and Haeberli, W\): 比较三种不同方法模拟瑞士阿尔卑斯未来冰川变化情景,Ann\. Glaciol\., 54, 241–253, 2013\. Linsbauer, A\., Frey, H\., Haeberli, W\., Machguth, H\., Azam, M\. F\., and Allen, S\): 模拟喜马拉雅-喀喇昆仑地区冰川的冰床深凹陷及可能的未来湖泊,Ann\. Glaciol\., 57, 119–130, 2016\. Liu, J\.\-J\., Tang, C\., and Cheng, Z\.\-L\): 中国西藏冰川湖溃决洪水的两个主要机制,J\. Mt\. Sci\., 10, 239–248,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-013-2517-8, 2013\. Lliboutry, L\., Morales, A\. B\., Pautre, A\., and Schneider, B\): 控制秘鲁布兰卡山脉危险湖泊的冰川学问题 I. 历史上冰碛坝的失效、原因及预防,J\. Glaciol\., 18, 239–254, 1977\. Magnin, F\., Krautblatter, M\., Deline, P\., Ravanel, L\., Malet, E\., and Bevington, A\): 近垂直岩壁中温暖敏感冻土区域的确定及通过电阻率层析成像评估分布式模型,J\. Geophys\. Res.\-Earth, 120, 745–762, 2015\. Magnin, F\., Haeberli, W\., Linsbauer, A\., Deline, P\., and Ravanel, L\): 估算退冰勃朗峰(西阿尔卑斯)冰川床深凹陷作为未来可能的湖泊位置,Geomorphology, 350,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106913, 2020\. Maurer, J\. M\., Schaefer, J\. M\., Rupper, S\., and Corley, A\): 过去40年喜马拉雅冰损失的加速,Sci\. Adv\., 5, eaav7266,https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7266, 2019\. Mergili, M\. and Pudasaini, S\. P\): r\.avaflow——质量流模拟工具,https://www.landslidemodels.org/r.avaflow/\(最后访问:2022年11月22日\), 2021\. Mergili, M\., Fischer, J\.\-T\., Krenn, J\., and Pudasaini, S\. P\): r\.avaflow v1,用于两相质量流传播与相互作用的先进开源计算框架,Geosci\. Model Dev\., 10, 553–569,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017\. Mölg, N\., Ferguson, J\., Bolch, T\., and Vieli, A\): 表碛覆盖对冰川地貌的影响:高起伏结构如何从光滑表面演化而来,Geomorphology, 357, 107092,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107092, 2020\. Nie, Y\., Sheng, Y\., Liu, Q\., Liu, L\., Liu, S\., Zhang, Y\., and Song, C\): 利用1990年至2015年卫星观测对喜马拉雅冰川湖变化进行区域尺度评估,Remote Sens\. Environ\., 189, 1–13,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.11.008, 2017\. Nie, Y\., Liu, Q\., Wang, J\., Zhang, Y\., Sheng, Y\., and Liu, S\): 基于遥感观测和地貌分析的喜马拉雅历史冰川湖溃决洪水清单,Geomorphology, 308, 91–106,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.02.002, 2018\. Obu, J\., Westermann, S\., Bartsch, A\., Berdnikov, N\., Christiansen, H\. H\., Dashtseren, A\., Delaloye, R\., Elberling, B\., Etzelmüller, B\., Kholodov, A\., Khomutov, A\., Kääb, A\., Leibman, M\. O\., Lewkowicz, A\. G\., Panda, S\. K\., Romanovsky, V\., Way, R\. G\., Westergaard\-Nielsen, A\., Wu, T\., Yamkhin, J\., and Zou, D\): 基于2000–2016年TTOP模型的1平方公里尺度北半球冻土图,Earth\-Sci\. Rev\., 193, 299–316,https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EARSCIREV.2019.04.023, 2019\. Pronk, J\. B\., Bolch, T\., King, O\., Wouters, B\., and Benn, D\. I\): 喜马拉雅地区入湖与入陆冰川表面速度的对比

相似文章

全球冰川灭绝探索器

Hacker News Top

本研究将重点转向单个冰川的灭绝,使用多种气候模型在不同的变暖情景下预测其消失年份,结果通过一个交互式网络应用程序呈现。

KNOU-Flood:利用感知预见期的概率机器学习推进全球河川流量预报

arXiv cs.LG

KNOU-Flood 在开放的 AIFL 全球河川流量预报方案基础上,引入了感知预报提前期的输入、GraphCast 强迫数据、更长的输入窗口以及基于潜在噪声的概率集合,在 2,099 个测试流域中显著改善了 KGE′ 和 CRPS,并表明,已报告的预报性能随提前期延长而衰减的现象,很大程度上源于输入协议的影响。