Open source AI being slightly behind is the best possible scenario

Let’s start by imagining what will happen if Chinese open source models eventually eclipse western models. At first, everyone here cheers and laughs at OpenAI/Anthropic/etc., yay we did it guys! Open source won! But right after that, these companies likely lost their investments, lose contracts, basically implode. No more frontier AI development in the US. Huge market crash, people lose their retirement savings, economy tanks, all that. But you’re an accelerationist, I hear you say. AGI is all that matters. Who cares if some boomers lose all their money? Well what’s the immediate next thing that will happen? Now China has no competition. Why would they continue to release models for everyone and subsidize their enemies? They won’t. They just clam up and enjoy their permanent lead all for themselves, AI development massively stalls and the only winners are China. They aren’t doing this because they are good guys. They are doing it because it is strategically advantageous for them. This is likely exactly what they are hoping will happen. I’m surprised more people don’t see it. So here’s my thesis: we are already living in the best case scenario for rapid AI development and mass user benefit. We want it to stay exactly like this. Frontier labs have a slight edge they can use to farm investment and sell to companies that have the cash to pay for it. Everyone else keeps getting better and cheaper models because of the intense competitive pressure. Cheering on western AI failing is the dumbest thing you could do.