Tag
This article updates AI Futures' timelines forecasts for Automated Coder, introducing coding uplift and revenue as new methods to refine predictions and improve confidence in AI development timelines.
An article discussing why AI forecasting is difficult, emphasizing that capability gains often fail to translate into end-to-end impact due to social, institutional, and tacit bottlenecks, using radiology as a case study.
The article examines the growing threat of weather data manipulation, exacerbated by prediction markets and AI forecasting, and highlights a real-world incident where a Paris weather station was tampered with to influence betting outcomes.
Raven-Agent is the first autonomous trading agent for prediction markets, featuring an explicit belief-to-trade layer. It achieves positive returns on a controlled replay, bridging the gap between calibrated forecasts and profitable trading.
Scientists report a 20% improvement in hurricane forecasts using AI, but remain cautious about the technology's ability to handle unprecedented storms as climate change intensifies hurricanes.