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This paper establishes a formal equivalence between predictive accuracy and profitability in order-book-based prediction markets, introducing a proper betting strategy that converts accuracy into profit, and validates it with a live deployment on Kalshi achieving 80.33% ROI.
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark predicts AI will contribute to a Nobel Prize-winning discovery within a year, bipedal robots will perform useful work in two years, and recursive self-improvement (RSI) will occur by end of 2028, based on a lecture at Oxford University.