online-calibration

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#online-calibration

I proved a formal, mathematically guaranteed error rate for my semantic cache. Then found out the cache's own normal behavior can quietly break the one assumption that guarantee depends on[D]

Reddit r/MachineLearning ↗ · 2026-09-22

The author added Conformal Risk Control to a semantic cache verifier for provable error rate guarantees, but discovered in online simulations that the cache's own decisions can break the exchangeability assumption, increasing realized error rates.

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#online-calibration

Dynamic Regime-Aware Conformal Calibration for Reliable Economic Forecast Intervals under Multiple Distribution Shifts

arXiv cs.LG ↗ · 2026-08-19 Cached

The paper introduces DRACP, a conformal prediction method that unifies multiple adaptation mechanisms for reliable economic forecast intervals under distribution shifts, achieving calibration with wider intervals.

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