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This paper argues that probability theory is a historically evolving form of rationality, tracing its development from combinatorial games to Bayesian inference and contrasting it with fuzzy logic and deep learning.
The article argues that AGI timelines based on scaling current architectures may be misguided, as true general intelligence requires rationality—dealing with open-ended real-world contexts—which current systems lack due to the frame problem and a low correlation between intelligence and rationality.