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#selection-bias

Selection Shapes the Boundary: A Preregistered Replication of Monotonicity and Label Agreement in Unselected NLI Populations

arXiv cs.CL · yesterday Cached

This preregistered replication tests whether the monotonicity effect on label agreement in NLI generalizes from selected low-agreement items to unselected populations, finding that the effect reverses and is small, suggesting the earlier finding was conditional on selection.

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#selection-bias

Heckman-Corrected Epistemic Uncertainty: Selection on Unobservables Defeats Importance Weighting

arXiv cs.LG · 2026-07-08 Cached

This paper introduces Heckman-corrected epistemic uncertainty to address selection on unobservables in machine learning, demonstrating that importance weighting fails when selection depends on unobservables correlated with outcomes. The method restores calibration in controlled experiments and real data, outperforming standard UQ baselines.

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#selection-bias

The Illusion of Improvement: Reject Inference Strategies in Credit Scoring

arXiv cs.LG · 2026-06-18 Cached

This paper systematically evaluates reject inference methods in credit scoring and identifies a failure mode where accuracy improves while recall collapses, creating an illusion of improvement while rejection quality deteriorates. It proposes a controlled exploration strategy that breaks the feedback loop and shows that even minimal exploration rates are sufficient to diagnose the problem.

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