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Kirk Borne 分享并推荐了教材《Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling》，该书由 Alicia A. Johnson、Miles Q. Ott 和 Mine Dogucu 编写，涵盖共轭先验、MCMC、回归与层级模型，并配有 bayesrule R 包。
The tweet praises Nate Silver's work and shares FiveThirtyEight's election forecast, which predicts Harris with a 60% chance of winning.
This paper proposes a statistical model to efficiently estimate uncertainty dynamics in text generation, smoothing noisy resampling data to significantly reduce computational costs while maintaining accuracy in analyzing LLM reasoning chains.
This article recommends the top 10 skills and tools for social science research, including Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills developed by the Stanford team, for using AI agents to conduct empirical research and write papers.
This paper introduces VESTA, a framework that equips vision-language models with dynamically growing toolkits for data exploration and statistical model refinement, outperforming prior agent-based methods on complex scientific modeling tasks. The authors also present Dawn, a benchmark for distribution fitting and time series modeling, including real-world astronomy challenges.
The paper introduces RGxEStat, a lightweight interactive tool that applies mixed-effect models to analyze gene-environment interactions, offering breeders a user-friendly alternative to complex SAS/R programming.