Beware the next giant pre-training run

Reddit r/singularity News

Summary

Speculative post about next giant pre-training run potentially yielding superhuman AI within 12-14 months, leading to recursive self-improvement.

If the internal model at Open AI (Along with whatever Anthropic/Grok/Meta/Deepmind are cooking internally) is as good as shown.....the next giant pre-training run (with 2-3x more compute) may produce a model with super human results. Maybe we will unlock answers to open Math/Physics problems and begin the recursive self-improvement cycle.... Looking at when the compute clusters come online (the major ones) it looks right on track for 12-14 months from now (giving enough time for optimised pre-training/post-training/scaffolding, etc). AI-2027 may look different. It will probably be more exponential than anticipated. From slightly better in narrow areas/slightly worse than leading researchers (current internal models) -> better than top researchers/teams in most important logical domains (math/physics/cs/sciences, etc). And then begins the loop. I really think this is it. Anyone feel the same now? It just feels different than before.
Original Article

Similar Articles

@bayeslord: https://x.com/bayeslord/status/2072056960430789032

X AI KOLs Following

A detailed speculative thread on the near future of AI, arguing that algorithmic progress will surprise many, with 4-10 orders of magnitude improvement in intelligence possible, and that we are in an early takeoff where AI accelerating AI research will lead to rapid advances.

When AI Builds Itself: Our progress toward recursive self-improvement

Hacker News Top

Anthropic's Institute publishes analysis on progress toward recursive self-improvement, showing AI is already accelerating AI development—engineers ship 8x more code per quarter—and projecting that AI systems capable of fully autonomous self-improvement could arrive sooner than most institutions are prepared for.