Beware the next giant pre-training run

Reddit r/singularity News
ai pre-training superhuman speculation compute recursive-improvement

Summary

Speculative post about next giant pre-training run potentially yielding superhuman AI within 12-14 months, leading to recursive self-improvement.

If the internal model at Open AI (Along with whatever Anthropic/Grok/Meta/Deepmind are cooking internally) is as good as shown.....the next giant pre-training run (with 2-3x more compute) may produce a model with super human results. Maybe we will unlock answers to open Math/Physics problems and begin the recursive self-improvement cycle.... Looking at when the compute clusters come online (the major ones) it looks right on track for 12-14 months from now (giving enough time for optimised pre-training/post-training/scaffolding, etc). AI-2027 may look different. It will probably be more exponential than anticipated. From slightly better in narrow areas/slightly worse than leading researchers (current internal models) -> better than top researchers/teams in most important logical domains (math/physics/cs/sciences, etc). And then begins the loop. I really think this is it. Anyone feel the same now? It just feels different than before.
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