Study-Strategy Clusters from EdNet Logs Track Engagement, Not Mastery

# 1Introduction
Source: [https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963)
\\PaperTitle

Study\-Strategy Clusters from EdNet Logs Track Engagement, Not Mastery\\AuthorsQingchuan Lyu1\*, Yingxin Li2, Albert Yang1\\Keywordslearning analytics, learner profiling, clustering, engagement, mastery, knowledge tracing, intelligent tutoring systems\\Submitted18/08/2026\\Accepted–\\Published–\\NotesnameNotes for Practice\\noteEstablished knowledge: learning analytics and Intelligent Tutoring System \(ITS\) research often cluster interaction logs, such as resource use, revision, video watching and problem attempts, into named learner types or study styles\. Internal validation metrics \(silhouette, Davies–Bouldin\) and clear visual separation in embeddings are then frequently taken as evidence that those styles are educationally meaningful, including as proxies for how well learners know the material, without a separate check against later correctness or external assessments\.\\noteContribution of this paper: on EdNet\-KT3 we recover a stable hierarchy of study\-strategy clusters from early practice logs\. To test whether those clusters forecast learning, we split each learner’s timeline in half by respond count so cluster features use only the early half and outcomes use only the late half \(blocking leakage from late behavior into both sides\)\. Early clusters predict later engagement—how much learners keep practicing and finish sessions in that late half, especially staying active across late sessions—but not later unassisted accuracy \(correctness on late first\-attempts answered without help\)\. Checks on practice volume, answer\-order patterns, and a knowledge\-tracing model still find no reliable mastery signal from behavior\-only styles\.\\noteImplications for practice: use log\-based clusters to describe study styles and to target engagement support \(e\.g\., persistence, completion\), not as standalone predictors of knowledge gains; if mastery is the goal, prefer correctness\-aware models and external outcome measures rather than behavior\-only labels\.

## 1Introduction

Intelligent tutoring systems \(ITS\) log everyday study moves, such as watching video, reading explanations, answering and revising questions\. A common hope in learning analytics is that clustering those logs will reveal learner types that*predict*learning outcomes and can drive adaptive support[Baker & Yacef \(2009\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib8);[Desmarais & Baker \(2012\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib16)\. That hope is rarely stress\-tested: many pipelines stop once clusters look interpretable and well separated \(silhouette scores, UMAP plots\), treating educational meaning as self\-evident[Vendramin et al\. \(2010\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib43)\.

Research question\.Do unsupervised study\-strategy profiles from ITS logs forecast later*learning*, or only later*engagement*\(whether learners keep practicing\)? We answer this on the public EdNet\-KT3 corpus[Choi et al\. \(2020\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib13)\. First we discover and name styles on each learner’s full log\. Then, for prediction claims, we rebuild clusters from only the early half of each learner’s question attempts and score outcomes on the late half\. This way late behavior cannot leak into both the cluster features and the scored outcome\.

Our contribution is threefold\. \(i\) We recover a stable hierarchy of study styles: 4 sharp contrast poles \(reading focused, video heavy, revision heavy, and problem attempt first\) plus 4 softer styles inside the large near\-average majority \(mild in\-session study before attempting problems, video\-leaning majority, read passages then attempt, mild revisers\)\. Parentk=5k\{=\}5and the hierarchy stay stable under bootstrap resampling \(mean ARI≈0\.984\\approx 0\.984; mean ARI≈0\.938\\approx 0\.938\)\. \(ii\) When clusters are fit on early practice only, they predict later engagement, especially whether learners stay active across late sessions, but not correctness on late first\-attempts answered without help\. \(iii\) Checks on practice volume, answer\-order patterns, and a supervised knowledge\-tracing model \(SAKT\)[Pandey & Karypis \(2019\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib37)do not overturn that mastery null: SAKT can separate mastery, but as an ability gradient nearly independent of behavior\-style labels\. For practice, log\-based styles are useful for describing*how*learners study and whether they keep practicing, not as a proxy for*what*they know\.

## 2Literature Review

This review situates the paper at the intersection of intelligent tutoring systems \(ITS\), learning\-style and learning\-strategy personalization, self\-regulated learning \(SRL\), log\-based behavioral profiling, and the distinction between engagement and learning outcomes\. Prior work often personalizes to named learning styles or predicts next\-item correctness; far less work asks whether*unsupervised behavioral clusters*derived from study\-strategy features forecast later mastery when early cluster features are kept separate from late outcomes, or whether the same clusters that predict engagement also predict achievement\. That gap is our target\.

### 2\.1Intelligent tutoring and adaptive instruction

Cognitive tutors established that model\-tracing ITS can improve classroom outcomes when they provide immediate, concise feedback grounded in a cognitive model of the domain[Anderson et al\. \(1995\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib4);[Koedinger et al\. \(1997\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib31)\. Later surveys framed open challenges in student modeling, metacognition, and authoring[Conati \(2009\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib14);[Murray \(2003\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib36), and extended tutor principles to help\-seeking and self\-explanation[Aleven & Koedinger \(2002\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib3);[Roll et al\. \(2007\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib41);[Azevedo \(2002\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib5)\. Adaptive hypermedia and personalized ITS emphasize individual goals, preferences, and prior knowledge as bases for adaptation[Brusilovsky \(2000\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib12);[Phobun & Vicheanpanya \(2010\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib39)\.

Systematic reviews catalog AI techniques used in ITS \(rule\-based methods, Bayesian networks, and data mining\) and stress evaluation on learner outcomes[Mousavinasab et al\. \(2021\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib35);[Lin et al\. \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib34);[Hariyanto et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib27);[Gligorea et al\. \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib26)\. A 2025 systematic review of 28 K–12 studies \(N=4,597N\{=\}4\{,\}597\) found ITS effects generally positive yet often mitigated when compared with non\-intelligent tutoring systems, highlighting personalization and adaptivity as critical design levers[Létourneau et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib33)\. Implementation studies further show that adaptive tutors succeed or fail as much on deployment and instructional fit as on the underlying learner model[Phillips et al\. \(2020\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib38);[Erümit & Çetin \(2020\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib20)\. Collectively, this work underscores that*how*students engage with an ITS, the strategies and patterns they deploy, may matter as much as the system’s algorithm\.

We inherit the ITS goal of actionable learner models, but ask a narrower question: whether*unsupervised*study\-strategy clusters from interaction logs forecast later mastery, or mainly later engagement\.

### 2\.2Learning styles and log\-based profiling

A large adaptive\-learning literature identifies learning styles to personalize instruction[Essa et al\. \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib21);[Bajaj & Sharma \(2018\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib7)\. The Felder–Silverman taxonomy remains influential; methods range from questionnaires to hybrid neural style recognizers[Bernard et al\. \(2017\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib10);[Bernard et al\. \(2022\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib11)and clustering of web\-usage traces under Felder–Silverman dimensions[Azzi et al\. \(2020\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib6)\. Reviews of technology\-enhanced personalized learning likewise highlight data\-driven adaptation as a central trend[Xie et al\. \(2019\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib47)\. Unsupervised clustering of log\-derived features is also a long\-standing approach to discovering study strategies and learner types in educational data mining and learning analytics[Baker & Yacef \(2009\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib8);[Desmarais & Baker \(2012\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib16)\. Typical pipelines aggregate action counts or time\-on\-task, reduce dimensionality, and interpret clusters as profiles for adaptation\.

Our approach is related but distinct: we cluster simple study\-strategy summaries—how often learners watch video, read, attempt, revise, study before answering, and return after errors—rather than map learners onto a fixed questionnaire taxonomy, and we judge the clusters by both later engagement and later mastery\. Silhouette and similar scores help choose how many clusters to keep, but they do not prove educational meaning[Vendramin et al\. \(2010\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib43); we therefore also require that labels stay stable under resampling[von Luxburg \(2010\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib44);[Hubert & Arabie \(1985\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib29)and that prediction claims use held\-out late outcomes\.

### 2\.3Self\-regulated learning and metacognition in ITS

Self\-regulated learning \(SRL\) provides a theoretical backbone for how learners deploy strategies in tutoring systems\. Winne and Hadwin’s COPES model describes SRL across recursive phases: task definition, goal setting and planning, studying tactics, and adaptations, with metacognitive monitoring as a gateway to regulation[Winne & Hadwin \(1998\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib46)\. Prompting self\-explanation in cognitive tutors, a lightweight metacognitive scaffold, produced greater learning gains and transfer than procedural practice alone[Aleven & Koedinger \(2002\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib3)\. Related work shows that students often deploy ineffective help\-seeking strategies, and that metacognitive tutoring can improve both help\-seeking and learning[Roll et al\. \(2007\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib41);[Azevedo \(2002\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib5)\.

Furthermore, a 2025 systematic mapping of 84 AI–SRL studies found that AI is most often used for adaptive personalization, prediction/profiling, ITS, and assessment, with metacognitive and cognitive aspects far more studied than motivation[Banihashem et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib9)\. That imbalance matters for log\-based profiling: behavior traces readily capture strategy and engagement signals, but motivational constructs are harder to recover from actions alone\. We treat our study\-strategy clusters as descriptive behavioral encodings of how learners regulate practice in the log, not as full SRL diagnoses\.

### 2\.4Engagement versus achievement

Engagement \(participation, persistence, time\-on\-task\) is often treated as a proxy for learning, yet the two can come apart: learners can be highly active without commensurate gains, and vice versa[Fredricks et al\. \(2004\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib23);[Henrie et al\. \(2015\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib28)\. Recent AI\-tutor and GenAI education work similarly cautions that gains in interaction efficiency, engagement, or process quality need not yield immediate learning gains[Kasneci et al\. \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib30);[Francis et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib22);[Kong et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib32)\. We therefore score both engagement \(whether late sessions continue and items are completed\) and mastery \(accuracy on late first\-attempts answered without help\), so a cluster that tracks who keeps practicing is not mistaken for a cluster that tracks who knows more\. This distinction matters in practice: an intervention keyed to “revision\-heavy” membership may find who stays active later without diagnosing who knows more\.

### 2\.5Knowledge tracing and outcome prediction

Predicting next\-response correctness from interaction sequences is a core EDM task\. Classical Bayesian Knowledge Tracing \(BKT\)[Corbett & Anderson \(1995\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib15)models per\-skill binary latent knowledge with a Hidden Markov update and remains a foundational baseline\. Self\-Attentive Knowledge Tracing \(SAKT\)[Pandey & Karypis \(2019\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib37)and later transformer\-style models are now standard neural baselines on large public corpora; related surveys cover dynamic KT for large\-scale adaptive environments[Sapountzi et al\. \(2019\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib42)and continuous personalized KT[Wang & Sahebi \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib45)\. EdNet[Choi et al\. \(2020\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib13)provides multi\-million\-interaction TOEIC tutoring logs; each question carries apartfield taking values11–77\(Listening & Reading exam sections\) plus finer experttags\. Published full\-corpus KT benchmarks often report AUC near∼\\sim0\.75–0\.78\.

We use EdNet\-KT3 not to chase that leaderboard, but as a realistic ITS log for testing whether*behavioral*structure predicts later in\-app mastery\. Our supervised probe uses SAKT to predict next\-response correctness on the coarsepartlabels\. Because some exam sections are simply harder than others, a strong baseline is a*part\-difficulty prior*: for an item in sectionpp, guess correctness using only how often the cohort gets sectionppright—the same guess for every learner, with no personal answer history\. We judge SAKT by AUC lift over that baseline, not by absolute state\-of\-the\-art AUC, and critically we also cluster SAKT’s dense student embedding as a correctness\-supervised contrast to unsupervised behavioral clusters\.

### 2\.6Personalization in the era of large language models

The mid\-2020s convergence of ITS ideas with large language models creates new personalization opportunities and new risks\. Reviews and commentaries emphasize both promise \(dialogic tutoring, scalable feedback\) and limits \(uneven pedagogical quality, equity, assessment integrity\)[Kasneci et al\. \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib30);[Abd\-Alrazaq et al\. \(2023\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib1);[Gabriel et al\. \(2024\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib24);[Francis et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib22);[Abedin et al\. \(2026\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib2);[Garcia et al\. \(2026\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib25)\. Recent adaptive and predictive tutoring systems continue to combine mastery estimates, engagement signals, and personalized guidance[Duque et al\. \(2026\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib17);[Kong et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib32);[Hariyanto et al\. \(2025\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib27)\. A recurring theme is that personalization may improve the*process*of learning \(engagement, cognitive load, efficiency\) more reliably than immediate*outcomes*, which is echoing the engagement–achievement dissociation above\. Careful integration with traditional learner modeling, rather than wholesale replacement, remains the more promising path for claims about mastery\.

### 2\.7Hierarchy, stability, and predictive validity

Methodological work on cluster validation warns that high silhouette or a clean UMAP plot does not imply external validity[von Luxburg \(2010\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib44);[Hubert & Arabie \(1985\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib29);[Vendramin et al\. \(2010\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib43)\. Education data\-mining practice often reports a chosenkkand named profiles; fewer papers publish bootstrap ARI floors, feature\-definition ablations, and temporally held\-out outcome tests in the same manuscript\. Hierarchical decompositions of a large residual majority are also under\-reported relative to flatkk\-means cuts\. We treat the 4 poles \+ 4 majority\-style hierarchy as a descriptive encoding whose predictive claims must be earned separately under anti\-leakage evaluation, with temporal holdout, feature ablation, and bootstrap stability accompanying any prediction claim\.

### 2\.8Formal background

Three mathematical ingredients frame our design\.*\(i\) Ability vs\. behavior\.*Item\-response theory \(IRT\) models correctness as a function of latent abilityθ\\thetaand item difficultybb\. In the one\-parameter logistic \(Rasch\) form[Rasch \(1960\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib40);[Embretson & Reise \(2000\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib19),

P⁡\(Xi​j=1∣θi,bj\)=11\+exp⁡\(−\(θi−bj\)\)\.P\(X\_\{ij\}\{=\}1\\mid\\theta\_\{i\},b\_\{j\}\)=\\frac\{1\}\{1\+\\exp\\\!\\bigl\(\-\(\\theta\_\{i\}\-b\_\{j\}\)\\bigr\)\}\.\(1\)Models trained on correctness \(including neural KT latents\) are therefore expected to recover an ability\-like direction; clustering such latents can separate mastery without implying a*behavioral*typology\.*\(ii\) Order as a Markov process\.*Sequence profiles treat within\-session actions as a first\-order chain with transition matrixP⁡\(a′\|a\)P\(a^\{\\prime\}\{\|\}a\)\. Aggregate \(“flat”\) features discardP⁡\(a′\|a\)P\(a^\{\\prime\}\{\|\}a\)and keep only frequency of action and time share of actions; exploratory order probes ask whether residual structure lives in that transition matrix\.*\(iii\) Beyond silhouette alone: Stability\.*Partition quality under resampling is summarized by the chance\-corrected adjusted Rand index \(ARI\)[Hubert & Arabie \(1985\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib29):

ARI=RI−𝔼⁡\[RI\]max⁡\(RI\)−𝔼⁡\[RI\],\\mathrm\{ARI\}=\\frac\{\\mathrm\{RI\}\-\\mathbb\{E\}\[\\mathrm\{RI\}\]\}\{\\max\(\\mathrm\{RI\}\)\-\\mathbb\{E\}\[\\mathrm\{RI\}\]\},\(2\)soARI≈1\\mathrm\{ARI\}\{\\approx\}1indicates reproducible structure beyond chance[von Luxburg \(2010\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib44)\. We gate on bootstrap ARI, then test outcomes with ANOVA, Holm correction, and bootstrap confidence intervals on mastery gaps[Efron & Tibshirani \(1993\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib18)\.

### 2\.9Summary of the gap

The literature shows that ITS can support learning when feedback and adaptive modeling are well designed; that learning\-style and log\-based profiles are widely used for personalization; that SRL theory explains why strategy and metacognition matter; that engagement and achievement can diverge; and that KT and LLM tutors improve prediction or process without automatically validating behavior\-only mastery claims\. What remains underexplored is a unified empirical treatment that \(1\) derives interpretable study\-strategy clusters from ITS logs, \(2\) evaluates predictive validity separately for engagement and mastery under strict temporal holdout, \(3\) compares those unsupervised clusters against a supervised correctness embedding \(SAKT\), and \(4\) validates stability via bootstrap resampling and feature ablation\. That is the target of the present work\.

## 3Methods

### 3\.1Cohort, vocabulary, windowing and features

EdNet\-KT3 provides one timestamped action log per user \(∼\\sim298,000 users scanned\)\. We define an*active learner*as a user with at least 50 questionrespondevents \(not total actions or calendar days\)\. Under this gate, 45,621 users were eligible\. Profile discovery, outcome audits, and the KT probe use a fixed seeded sample of 5,000 learners; 4,986 remain after dropping rows with non\-finite clustering features \(typically division\-by\-zero when a user has no timed study; Table[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S3.T1)\)\. The activity threshold ensures enough interactions for session windowing, but introduces activity bias: results describe engaged users, not the full EdNet population\.

Table 1:Locked clustering features \(9\), grouped by flat study\-strategy category\. Action\-mix values are shares of non\-idle actions\. A feature is non\-finite \(and the row is dropped before PCA\) when its denominator is zero—almost alwaysdwell\_frac\_watch\_videowith no timed study \(0/00/0\); rarely alsostudy\_before\_answer\_ratio,revision\_rate, orreengage\_after\_error\_ratewhen the corresponding count is zero\.CategoryFeatureDefinitionAction\-mix frequenciesfrac\_n\_watch\_videoFrequency of non\-idle actions that are videofrac\_n\_read\_explanationFrequency that are explanation readsfrac\_n\_read\_passageFrequency that are passage / stem readsfrac\_n\_attempt\_problemFrequency that are first attemptsfrac\_n\_revise\_answerFrequency that are revisesVideo dwell sharedwell\_frac\_watch\_videoTimed study seconds on video / total timed study seconds\. Passage dwell is constant zero on KT3 \(excluded\); explanation dwell is near\-complementary and dropped to avoid collinearity\.Strategy ratesstudy\_before\_answer\_ratioFirst attempts preceded by in\-session video or explanation divided by all first attemptsrevision\_rateRevises / attempts \(winsorized at 1\)reengage\_after\_error\_rateLater returns to a wrong item / wrong respondsActions are mapped to a compact vocabulary: watch\_video, read\_passage, read\_explanation, attempt\_problem, revise\_answer, and idle\_return\. Anattempt\_problemis the first response to a question; a later response to the same question is arevise\_answer\. Streams are segmented with a 30\-minute inactivity gap\. Sessions with fewer than five actions are dropped\. Each user’s log is capped at the earliest5,0005\{,\}000actions so extreme histories, such as repetitive revising answers many times, do not dominate computation or overweight late\-career drift\. Session windows roll up to user\-level features deliberately disjoint from outcomes\. The locked clustering set uses 9 features \(Table[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S3.T1)\)\. Features are standardized and reduced with PCA \(7 components retaining 97\.8% of variance\)\. K\-means clustering is performed in this PCA space; UMAP is used only for visualization\.

### 3\.2Hierarchy,kkselection, and stability

We choose the number of parent clusters by silhouette and Davies–Bouldin ranks overk∈\[2,12\]k\{\\in\}\[2,12\], which selectsk=5k\{=\}5\(silhouette≈\\approx0\.333; Figure[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.F1)\)\. The largest cluster is still a near\-average residual \(∼\\sim64\.9%; 3,236 users\), so we run a second K\-means only on that group and selectk=4k\{=\}4by combined silhouette and Davies–Bouldin ranks \(majority silhouette≈\\approx0\.199\)\. The reported typology is therefore hierarchical: 4 contrast poles kept as parent labels plus 4 majority styles \(8 named learning patterns in total\)\.

To check stability, we re\-cluster independent 80% subsamples at fixedkkand measure agreement with full\-cohort labels using the adjusted Rand index \(ARI\)[Hubert & Arabie \(1985\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib29);[Efron & Tibshirani \(1993\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib18)\. Density\-based HDBSCAN on the same PCA space labels everyone as noise at the parent stage, so we do not use it for profile definition\. Feature\-definition ablations \(merged reading categories, longer sessions, mix/dwell/strategy\-only, log\-counts\) show that maximizing silhouette alone can favor coarser partitions; we retain the locked hierarchy for interpretability and stability,notmaximum silhouette\.

### 3\.3Anti\-leakage outcome design

Table[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S3.T2)lists recurring sample sizes so changingnnvalues are clear in various situations\. Profile discovery uses the clustered cohort; mastery tables further require finiteterminal\_unassisted\_accuracy\(last 20 late unassisted first\-attempts, not merely “≥\\geq20 late responds,” since all 5,000 already meet a≥\\geq5 late\-respond gate\)\.

Table 2:Recurring user counts on the locked analysis path\.If we cluster on a learner’s full log and then “predict” late accuracy from those clusters, late practice can enter both the cluster features and the outcome—an unfair circular test \(leakage\)\. We therefore split each learner’s question attempts in half by count \(default 50/50 respond split\): rebuild features from the early half only, refit scaler/PCA/K\-means at lockedk=5k\{=\}5\(strict\_early; 4,960 users\), and score outcomes only on the late half\. Fixedkkis intentional: we ask whether the same number of styles still forecasts late outcomes from early data, not whether early data would choose a differentkk\. Named poles and majority styles remain full\-timeline descriptions; early cluster ids are a fresh partition and should not be narrated with those names\.

Why split by respond count rather than calendar date? EdNet\-KT3 users start and stop at different times, and total practice volumes differ by orders of magnitude; equalizing experience*share*is the natural control\. The cost is unequal late*volume*: some learners have few late items, so their accuracy estimates are noisier\. Users need at least 5 late responds; our mastery proxy is accuracy on the last 20 late first\-attempts answered without help \(2,952 scorable of 5,000\)\. Engagement proxies include whether late sessions continue \(persistence\_late\_sessions\) and whether late items are completed \(late\_completion\_rate\)\. We test cluster–outcome differences with one\-way ANOVA, Holm\-adjustedpp\-values within each design, and effect sizes \(η2\\eta^\{2\}\)\.

### 3\.4Volume audit and supervised KT probe

To test whether parent styles are merely “high vs\. low practice volume” groups, we compare average responds, actions, and sessions across parents, and separately re\-cluster the same users on those three volume features alone atk=5k\{=\}5\. Separately, SAKT \(d=64d\{=\}64, 4 heads, max length 100, dropout0\.20\.2, Adam10−310^\{\-3\}, early stopping on validation AUC\) predicts next\-response correctness on first\-attempt sequences\. We label items by the 7 TOEICpartsections \(11–77\), not by EdNet’s finer skilltags: the goal is a correctness\-supervised contrast to behavior clusters \(aligned with a section\-difficulty baseline\), not maximum KT accuracy\. The probe uses 4,994 users with≥\\geq10 scorable responds\. As a simple baseline on the*same*held\-out attempts, we predict correctness from section difficulty alone: if the next item is in TOEIC partpp, use the cohort’s average accuracy on partpp, and ignore who the learner is and how they answered earlier items\. SAKT is judged by how much its AUC beats that baseline \(a user\-level bootstrap 95% CI onAUC⁡\(SAKT\)−AUC⁡\(prior\)\\mathrm\{AUC\}\(\\mathrm\{SAKT\}\)\-\\mathrm\{AUC\}\(\\mathrm\{prior\}\)\)\. We also cluster each user’s mean SAKT hidden state \(d=64d\{=\}64\) as a correctness\-supervised contrast to the behavior\-only typology\.

## 4Results

### 4\.1A stable hierarchical typology

![Refer to caption](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963v1/project_graphs/select_k.png)

![Refer to caption](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963v1/project_graphs/task6b_subcluster_select_k.png)

Figure 1:Internal\-validity sweeps fork∈\[2,12\]k\{\\in\}\[2,12\]\. Left: parent\-stage K\-means; silhouette and Davies–Bouldin selectsk=5k\{=\}5\(dashed\)\. Right: typical\-majority recluster; combined silhouette and Davies–Bouldin rank selectsk=4k\{=\}4\.On 4,986 learners, parentk=5k\{=\}5recovers 4 sharp contrast styles \(“poles”\) and one large near\-average group \(the typical majority\) with global optimal silhouette and Davis\-Bouldin scores \(Figure[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.F1)\)\. Top left of Figure[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.F2)\(a\) shows that cut on UMAP for intuition only, with cluster shares; the actual clustering is in the bottom left PCA space \(7 components, 97\.8% variance\)\. Relative to the global mean \(Figure[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.F2)\)\(b\): a small reading\-focused pole \(∼\\sim5\.2%\) with more explanation/passage study and study before answer; a video\-heavy pole \(∼\\sim3\.4%\) with high video share/dwell and less prep or revision; a larger revision\-heavy pole \(∼\\sim17\.9%\) with high revision and re\-engage after error; a problem\-first pole \(∼\\sim8\.6%\) with more time on trying problems than study or preparation; and the typical majority \(∼\\sim64\.9%\), a near\-mean residual with only tiny elevations on study\-before\-answer/reading\. Right side of Figure[2](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.F2)\(a\) shows the full hierarchy in both UMAP and the first two PCA coordinates: poles appear as arms or tails, while the typical majority is a dense cloud that only softens into four majority styles after a second\-stage recluster\.

![Refer to caption](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963v1/project_graphs/subcluster_stable.png)

![Refer to caption](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963v1/project_graphs/parent_characters.png)

\(a\)Parents vs\. hierarchical typology in UMAP \(top\) and the first two PCA coordinates \(bottom\)\. Left panels: five parent styles\. Right panels: four contrast poles kept fixed while the majority mass is replaced by four majority styles \(prep before answer, video\-leaning majority, passage and attempt, mild revisers\)\. PCA shows poles as elongated tails and majority styles as a soft decomposition of the dense residual\. Neither view chooseskkor assigns labels\.

\(b\)Parent\-cluster feature contrasts \(Δ\\Deltavs\. global mean\) that ground the pole names\.

Figure 2:Parent styles and hierarchical typology\. \(a\) left: UMAP/PCA views; \(b\) right: feature contrasts\.Reclustering the typical majority \(3,236 users\) selectsk=4k\{=\}4under combined silhouette and Davies–Bouldin ranks \(right side of Figure[1](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.F1)\) and yields four softer styles named relative to the*majority*mean \(not the global mean\): prep\-before\-answer \(more study\-before\-answer and explanation reading\), video\-leaning majority, passage\-and\-attempt \(more passage reading and problem\-solving attempts\), and mild revisers \(more revision within the majority, kept separate from the sharp revision\-heavy pole\)\. Parent labels are highly reproducible under bootstrap resampling \(Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T3)\), even though within\-majority silhouette is modest \(≈\\approx0\.199\)\. Soft separation and stable labels can coexist: we treat the hierarchy as a reproducible descriptive map, not as a set of tight density balls\. To make parent names concrete, we pick one nearest\-centroid exemplar per style \(the learner whose feature vector is closest to that cluster’s mean\) and plot their first 200 actions over time \(Appendix[\.1](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#A0.SS1), Figure[5](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#A0.F5)\)\. These timelines show how action mix and pacing differ across poles, as part of face\-validity checks rather than causal evidence\.

### 4\.2Stability and feature\-definition robustness

Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T3)collects every adjusted Rand index \(ARI\) reported in the paper so readers need not chase numbers across sections\. ARI near11means two partitions agree beyond chance; ARI near00means near\-chance agreement\. Bootstrap rows ask whether labels reproduce under resampling; comparison rows ask whether two different labelings of the same learners agree\.

Bootstrap replicates at fixedk=5k\{=\}5show near perfect parent\-label agreement\. Hierarchical encodings that keep the four poles and replace the typical majority with the four majority styles remain label\-stable, even though within\-majority silhouette is modest \(≈\\approx0\.199\)\. Soft within\-majority silhouette is therefore compatible with reproducible partitions: stability, not density, is the gate we use for the reported typology\.

Table 3:Adjusted Rand index \(ARI\) summary\. Bootstrap rows: mean agreement of resampled labels vs\. the full\-cohort reference \(floor==minimum replicate\)\. Comparison rows: agreement between two labelings of the same learners\.CategoryDescription/comparisonWhat it asksARI*Bootstrap stability \(full\-timeline typology\)*BootstrapParentk=5k\{=\}5Do parent labels reproduce?0\.984 \(floor 0\.965\)BootstrapFull hierarchy \(8 styles\)Do hierarchical labels reproduce?0\.938BootstrapContrast poles onlyDo the 4 poles reproduce?0\.986BootstrapMajority styles onlyDo the 4 majority styles reproduce?0\.915 \(floor 0\.886\)BootstrapQuit\-in order cut \(exploratory\)Stable with idle\-return transitions?0\.986BootstrapNo\-quit order cut \(exploratory\)Stable after dropping idle\-return?0\.686*Cross\-labeling comparisons*CompareEarly\-half vs\. full\-timelineSame styles, or a fresh early partition?0\.253CompareVolume\-only vs\. strategyAre styles just practice\-volume groups?0\.064CompareKT embedding vs\. strategyDoes correctness latent match behavior?0\.007Ablation studies of feature definitions \(Table[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T4)\) show that silhouette alone can favor coarser cuts, while Davies–Bouldin often stays near the locked baseline\. Merging reading categories, restricting to longer sessions, or clustering only on mix/dwell/study\-before ratios inflates silhouette while collapsing poles into a large residual plus a video arm\. Log\-count features improve density enough for HDBSCAN to fire \(and improve Davies–Bouldin\), but change the naming story\. We therefore treat the locked nine\-feature hierarchy as an interpretable and stable baseline, not the silhouette maximum\.

Table 4:Feature\-definition variants at their silhouette\-selectedkk\. Silhouette↑ / Davies–Bouldin↓ \(k=5k\{=\}5\)\.
### 4\.3Exploratory order probes

As a secondary check, we ask whether*order*of actions \(not just how often each action occurs\) splits the typical majority more cleanly\. Transition features that include quit\-and\-return moves yield a stable binary cut, but after removing idle\-return transitions the same design fails our bootstrap stability bar with ARI = 0\.686\(Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T3)\)\. We still show the silhouette\-selected cut in Figure[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.F3):∼\\sim71% of the majority look like*revisers*\(more attempt\-then\-revise sequences\), and∼\\sim29% look like*straight\-through answerers*\(more attempt\-then\-next\-attempt, with less revising\)\. We treat that contrast as descriptive only and do not add it to the locked typology\. That cut separates late persistence \(η2≈\\eta^\{2\}\{\\approx\}0\.038\) more than terminal accuracy \(η2≈\\eta^\{2\}\{\\approx\}0\.001\), again matching engagement\-not\-mastery\.

![Refer to caption](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963v1/project_graphs/Noquit_subcluster_scatter.png)Figure 3:Descriptive no\-quit order cut inside the typical majority \(exploratory; not part of the locked hierarchy\)\.
### 4\.4Early clusters track engagement, not mastery

Table[5](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T5)summarizes the early/late test\.strict\_earlyrecovers 4,960 users and agrees only weakly with full\-timeline labels \(Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T3)\), so early cluster ids are not simply a relabeling of the named poles\. After Holm correction, early clusters differ on late\-session persistence \(η2≈\\eta^\{2\}\{\\approx\}0\.106\) and late completion \(η2≈\\eta^\{2\}\{\\approx\}0\.021\), but not on terminal unassisted accuracy \(η2≈\\eta^\{2\}\{\\approx\}0\.003;padj≈p\_\{\\mathrm\{adj\}\}\{\\approx\}0\.093\)\. Figure[4](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.F4)shows the corresponding spreads\. In plain terms: early study\-style structure forecasts who keeps practicing and finishing items later, not who answers later items correctly without help\.

Bootstrap bounds on the overall terminal\-accuracy gap among scorable labeled users remain on the order of 10\.48 percentage points\. Controlling for total responds leaves the same qualitative ordering\. Adjusting for how hard the late items are mostly shrinks pole\-vs\-majority gaps toward zero; one descriptive exception is difficulty\-adjusted video\-heavy vs\. majority \(−12\.7\-12\.7pp; bootstrap 95% CI\[−20\.9,−4\.2\]\[\-20\.9,\-4\.2\]\), on a small video\-heavy cell—not a Holm\-controlled mastery claim from the early/late ANOVA\.

Table 5:Holm\-adjusted one\-way ANOVA of late outcomes understrict\_early\(lockedk=5k\{=\}5\)\.![Refer to caption](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963v1/project_graphs/task10_outcome_boxplots_1.png)Figure 4:Late\-period outcomes by early\-half cluster membership \(anti\-leakage design\)\. Engagement proxies separate more clearly than terminal unassisted accuracy\.
### 4\.5Volume covaries but does not define styles

Parent styles differ in how much learners practice \(Table[6](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T6)\): respond\-count and action\-count ANOVAη2\\eta^\{2\}values are 0\.095 and0\.0250\.025, while session\-count separation is weak \(η2≈0\.004\\eta^\{2\}\{\\approx\}0\.004\)\. Mean responds rise from the reading\-focused / typical\-majority end of the table to revision\-heavy and problem\-first poles\. Differing means do not mean the styles*are*volume groups\. Re\-clustering the same users on responds, sessions, and actions alone atk=5k\{=\}5barely recovers the strategy labels \(Tables[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T3)and[7](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T7)\)\. Among 2,939 labeled scorable users, strategy labels separate terminal accuracy only weakly \(η2≈\\eta^\{2\}\{\\approx\}0\.003\) and volume\-only labels even more weakly \(η2≈\\eta^\{2\}\{\\approx\}0\.001\)\. Volume travels with the typology but does not define it—an important check before using style labels in adaptive interventions\.

Table 6:Mean volume covariates by full\-timeline parent cluster \(4,986 users\)\. ANOVAη2\\eta^\{2\}uncorrected across the three tests\.Table 7:Activity\-only baseline vs\. strategy labels \(k=5k\{=\}5;n=n\{=\}2,939 scorable labeled users for mastery columns\)\. ARI also appears in Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T3)\.
### 4\.6Supervised KT probe

EdNet questions carry both a coarsepartlabel \(TOEIC exam section11–77\) and finer experttags\. We usepartonly: the probe is a correctness\-supervised contrast to behavior clusters, not a KT bake\-off, so seven section\-level knowledge components are enough, and they match our difficulty baseline\. On 4,994 learners with those 7 section labels, SAKT reaches validation AUC 0\.605\. We compare it to a*part\-difficulty prior*on the same attempts: if the next item is in sectionpp, predict using only the cohort’s success rate on sectionpp\(the same probability for every learner; no personal history\)\. That naive baseline reaches AUC 0\.553; SAKT’s lift is\+0\.051\+0\.051\(Table[8](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T8)\)\. A user\-level bootstrap 95% CI on the AUC difference is\[\+0\.045,\+0\.058\]\[\+0\.045,\+0\.058\]and excludes zero: answer history adds a small, reliable signal beyond “this section is usually this hard\.” Absolute AUC remains far below full\-EdNet KT benchmarks \(∼\\sim0\.78\), as expected on a∼\\sim5k cohort: we emphasize the lift, not a leaderboard comparison\.

The6464\-d SAKT embeddings largely re\-encode ability \(PC1 variance share 0\.380; corr\(PC1, mean correctness\)=\\,\{=\}\\,\+0\.785\+0\.785;R2≈R^\{2\}\{\\approx\}0\.252\)\. A silhouette\-selected binary cut of those embeddings is bootstrap\-stable but diffuse \(HDBSCAN noise8888–100100%\)\. It barely agrees with the locked behavioral typology \(Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T3)\) yet separates terminal accuracy \(η2≈\\eta^\{2\}\{\\approx\}0\.017\), as expected for a model trained on correctness, and not evidence of a dense behavioral mastery typology\. Behavior\-only clustering and correctness\-supervised embeddings answer different questions, and neither substitutes for the other on this cohort\.

Table 8:Supervised KT probe summary\. Items are labeled by TOEICpart\(sections11–77\)\. The part\-difficulty prior is a naive baseline: for sectionpp, use the cohort’s success rate onppfor every learner \(no personal history\)\. Lift isAUC⁡\(SAKT\)−AUC⁡\(prior\)\\mathrm\{AUC\}\(\\mathrm\{SAKT\}\)\-\\mathrm\{AUC\}\(\\mathrm\{prior\}\)\.

## 5Discussion

A common inference in behavior\-based learner modeling is that a stable, interpretable, well\-separated cluster must therefore predict learning\. Our results caution against that leap\. We recover a stable hierarchy of study styles that is easy to narrate, and that feature ablations show is not an artifact of chasing maximum silhouette, yet clusters built from early practice forecast later engagement rather than later unassisted accuracy\. That split matches the broader engagement–achievement literature[Fredricks et al\. \(2004\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib23);[Henrie et al\. \(2015\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib28): styles can guide*how*to support consistent practice without implying a mastery diagnosis\.

Furthermore, parent styles barely differ in mean empirical item difficulty, and difficulty\-adjusted OLS does not overturn the overall mastery null, though the small video\-heavy pole remains a descriptive caveat \(−12\.7\-12\.7pp vs\. majority; bootstrap CI\[−20\.9,−4\.2\]\[\-20\.9,\-4\.2\]\)\. Our claim is therefore precise: behavior\-only profiles do not predict later*in\-app accuracy*in general on this cohort\. A link \(or null\) to external learning gains would require independent outcome labels\.

Implications for analytics practice\.Policies keyed only on labels such as “revision\-heavy” or “video\-heavy” will partly track who practiced more and who stays active later, not who knows more\. Correctness\-aware models \(including knowledge tracing\) can recover ability structure, but that structure is nearly independent of behavior\-only profiles here \(Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T3)\)\. Practitioners should pair style dashboards with independent mastery evidence \(item correctness, external assessments\) rather than treat cluster membership as a knowledge proxy\. If the institutional goal is sustained practice, early behavioral structure*is*informative: persistence is the signal, not terminal accuracy\.

Theoretical reading\.From an item\-response perspective[Rasch \(1960\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib40);[Embretson & Reise \(2000\)](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#bib.bib19), models trained on correctness are expected to recover an ability\-like direction; clustering those latents can separate mastery without implying a behavioral typology\. Our SAKT probe matches that expectation\. Conversely, our study\-strategy features deliberately omit correctness, so their clusters need not and here do not align with ability\. The evaluative contribution is to document that separation when early features and late outcomes are kept apart, rather than assume educational meaning from silhouette alone\.

## 6Limitations

We state how far the conclusions should be taken\. These bounds are concrete measurement and design limits, not generic caveats\.

*In\-app proxies, not external outcomes\.*All outcomes are computed from the same EdNet\-KT3 interaction logs that produce the behavioral features\. “Mastery” here means accuracy on later*in\-app*questions, specifically terminal unassisted first\-attempts in the late respond\-ranked half, not a post\-test, course grade, certification, or retention label \(EdNet\-KT3 does not ship those\)\. In\-app accuracy remains confoundable by guessing and by which items a learner reaches\.

*Sampling frame and representation scope\.*Results describe active learners \(≥\\geq50responds\) on one TOEIC\-oriented platform\. They do not automatically generalize to less active users, K–12 settings, other subjects, or other ITS products\. Of 4,999 users in the feature table, 13 are dropped before PCA because at least one clustering feature is non\-finite \(almost always an undefined dwell fraction when the user has no timed study dwell\); we do not impute those rows, leaving 4,986 labeled learners\. The reported typology is the hierarchical 8\-style encoding; the typical majority’s second\-stage silhouette is modest \(≈\\approx0\.199\) even though hierarchical label agreement is high \(mean ARI≈0\.938\\approx 0\.938; majority styles mean ARI≈0\.915\\approx 0\.915\)\. Soft silhouette does not overturn label stability, but feature\-definition variants can prefer coarser, higher\-silhouette partitions\. The parent bootstrap we report uses 3 replicates \(config default is 10\); expanding the replicate count is unlikely to change the qualitative conclusion given the observed ARI floors \(0\.965 parent; 0\.886 for majority styles\)\. Hand\-engineered flat and Markov features may miss topic\-level or multi\-scale sequential structure; SAKT is a single, relatively small architecture used as a supervised latent probe rather than a KT bake\-off\. Absolute SAKT AUC \(0\.605\) is below full\-EdNet benchmarks because we train on a∼\\sim5k active cohort; we therefore emphasize lift over the part\-difficulty prior \(\+0\.051\+0\.051; CI\[\+0\.045,\+0\.058\]\[\+0\.045,\+0\.058\]\)—cohort success rate on the item’s TOEIC section, with no personal history—not a state\-of\-the\-art comparison\. KT embeddings use the early\-stopped validation checkpoint and are a descriptive supervised probe, not a pure hold\-out embedding study\.

*Respond\-rank 50/50 split and unequal late volume\.*The early/late cut is respond\-count proportional at a default 50/50 fraction, not calendar or checkpoint based\. Equalizing experience*share*still leaves unequal late*volume*: the late half can be on the order of 10 responds for one learner and 1,000 for another, so the reliability of terminal accuracy is heteroskedastic\. Users with few late or few unassisted terminal items contribute noisier mastery estimates, and only 2,952 of 5,000 \(∼\\sim59%\) are scorable on that proxy at all\. Labeled\-scorable mastery analyses further intersect full\-timeline labels \(2,939\)\. The mastery claim is therefore about the*detectable mean cluster gap*\(with bootstrap CIs among scorable users\), not that every learner has an equally precise mastery measurement\. Session features also discard fine\-grained within\-action timing\. Alternate 40/60 and 60/40 splits leave the terminal gap qualitatively unchanged—evidence that the mastery null is not an artifact of the exact halfway cut, but only a weak sensitivity check of the early/late boundary for non\-terminal outcomes\. We did not adopt a criteria\-based cut \(fixed early respond floor, content unit, or correctness gate\) because EdNet\-KT3 lacks shared course checkpoints and outcome\-tied gates risk soft leakage into the split itself\.

*Full\-timeline names vs\. early association labels\.*Profile names and stability ARIs describe the full\-timeline lock \(Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T3)\)\. Thestrict\_earlypartition uses the same fixedk=5k\{=\}5but is an independent fit on early features; its weak agreement with full\-timeline labels means it should not be narrated with the named pole/sub labels\. We also do not re\-selectkkon the early half, so early structure is a locked\-cardinality transfer check rather than a fresh model selection\. Majority style names such as “prep\-before\-answer” are relative to the typical\-majority mean, slight elevations within a soft residual, rather than sharp, globally unique strategies\.

*Secondary audits: sequential actions\.*Transition features that include leave\-and\-come\-back \(idle\_return\) events yield a stable binary cut on the typical majority, but after removing those events the cut is no longer bootstrap\-stable \(Table[3](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#S4.T3)\)\. We therefore treat the reviser \(first attempt on a problem then come back\) vs\. straight\-through\-answerer \(keep answering new questions\) contrast as descriptive only and do not add it to the reported 8\-style typology\. Qualitative exemplars \(Appendix[\.1](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#A0.SS1)\) cannot substitute for outcome validation\.

*Actionability\.*A stable typology that tracks engagement does not by itself prescribe institutional interventions \(who to message, how to redesign content\)\. Translating descriptive profiles into educator\-facing or student\-facing supports would require co\-design with practitioners and outcome definitions that match institutional goals\. Stronger negative or positive claims would need multi\-platform replication and external criteria\.

## 7Conclusion

Unsupervised study\-strategy clustering on EdNet\-KT3 yields a stable hierarchy of 8 styles: sharp contrast poles at the first cut plus softer styles inside the typical majority\. When clusters are built from early practice only, they forecast later engagement, especially whether learners stay active across late sessions, rather than later unassisted accuracy\. Practice volume travels with parent styles but does not define them\. A supervised knowledge\-tracing probe on TOEIC exam sections beats a section\-difficulty baseline only modestly and recovers mastery as an ability gradient nearly independent of behavior styles\. For learning analytics aiming to help learners thrive, behavioral clusters remain valuable for describing study practices and supporting engagement, but claims about knowledge gains need correctness\-aware evidence beyond behavior\-only labels\.

Toward helping learners thrive\.LAK27’s theme asks analytics not only to describe or predict, but to support meaningful educational outcomes\. Our results clarify a precondition for that ambition in ITS settings: behavior\-only profiles are actionable for engagement support, yet insufficient alone as mastery signals\. Future work should test two practical next steps: \(1\) nudge learners who show early signs of dropping practice \(not because they match a named style such as revision\-heavy\) and check whether that improves how consistently they keep studying; and \(2\) show study\-style dashboards together with separate mastery evidence \(knowledge\-tracing estimates or assessments\) and test whether teachers or systems decide better with both signals than with styles alone or mastery alone\.

Ethics and stakeholder use\.EdNet is a public research corpus; our analyses use aggregated behavioral features without attempting to re\-identify learners\. In a live ITS, treat style labels as descriptions of how learners practice and as cues for engagement support, rather than as measures of knowledge\. Because behavior styles did not reliably predict later unassisted accuracy here, do not use them for high\-stakes decisions such as ranking students, flagging “weak” learners, or withholding opportunities based on membership in a pole \(e\.g\., revision\-heavy\)\.

Reproducibility\.Paths, thresholds, and seeds live in a configuration file; each pipeline stage writes run metadata\. Analysis code and notebooks for the locked results are available from the author upon reasonable request \(and will be linked in a camera\-ready version if applicable\)\.

## Acknowledgments

The authors thank course staff and peers for feedback on earlier drafts of this work\.

## Declaration of Conflicting Interest

The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article\.

## Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not\-for\-profit sectors\.

## References

- Abd\-Alrazaq et al\. \(\(2023\)\)Abd\-Alrazaq, A\., AlSaad, R\., Alhuwail, D\., Ahmed, A\., Healy, P\.M\., Latifi, S\.Sheikh, J\.\(2023\)\.Large language models in medical education: Opportunities, challenges, and future directions\.JMIR Medical Education 9 1 e48291\.
- Abedin et al\. \(\(2026\)\)Abedin, B\. et al\.\(2026\)\.Pedagogical implications of generative AI access gaps in education\.Cited in course research log; verify bibliographic details for camera\-ready
- Aleven & Koedinger \(\(2002\)\)Aleven, V\.A\.W\.M\.M\. & Koedinger, K\.R\.\(2002\)\.An effective metacognitive strategy: Learning by doing and explaining with a computer\-based cognitive tutor\.Cognitive Science 26 2 147–179\.
- Anderson et al\. \(\(1995\)\)Anderson, J\.R\., Corbett, A\.T\., Koedinger, K\.R\. & Pelletier, R\.\(1995\)\.Cognitive tutors: Lessons learned\.The Journal of the Learning Sciences 4 2 167–207\.
- Azevedo \(\(2002\)\)Azevedo, R\.\(2002\)\.Beyond intelligent tutoring systems: Using computers as METAcognitive tools to enhance learning?Instructional Science 30 1 31–45\.
- Azzi et al\. \(\(2020\)\)Azzi, I\., Jeghal, A\., Radouane, A\., Yahyaouy, A\. & Tairi, H\.\(2020\)\.A robust classification to predict learning styles in adaptive e\-learning systems\.Education and Information Technologies 25 1 437–448\.
- Bajaj & Sharma \(\(2018\)\)Bajaj, R\. & Sharma, V\.\(2018\)\.Smart education with artificial intelligence based determination of learning styles\.Procedia Computer Science 132 834–842\.
- Baker & Yacef \(\(2009\)\)Baker, R\.S\.J\.d\. & Yacef, K\.\(2009\)\.The state of educational data mining in 2009: A review and future visions\.Journal of Educational Data Mining 1 1 \.
- Banihashem et al\. \(\(2025\)\)Banihashem, S\.K\., Bond, M\., Bergdahl, N\., Khosravi, H\. & Noroozi, O\.\(2025\)\.A systematic mapping review at the intersection of artificial intelligence and self\-regulated learning\.International Journal of Educational Technology in Higher Education 22 1 50\.doi:10\.1186/s41239\-025\-00548\-8
- Bernard et al\. \(\(2017\)\)Bernard, J\., Chang, T\-W\., Popescu, E\. & Graf, S\.\(2017\)\.Learning style identifier: Improving the precision of learning style identification through computational intelligence algorithms\.Expert Systems with Applications 75 94–108\.
- Bernard et al\. \(\(2022\)\)Bernard, J\., Popescu, E\. & Graf, S\.\(2022\)\.Improving online education through automatic learning style identification using a multi\-step architecture with ant colony system and artificial neural networks\.Applied Soft Computing 131 109779\.
- Brusilovsky \(\(2000\)\)Brusilovsky, P\.\(2000\)\.Adaptive hypermedia: From intelligent tutoring systems to web\-based education\.In International conference on intelligent tutoring systems \( 1–7\)\.: Springer\.
- Choi et al\. \(\(2020\)\)Choi, Y\., Lee, Y\., Shin, D\., Cho, J\., Park, S\., Lee, S\.Heo, J\.\(2020\)\.EdNet: A large\-scale hierarchical dataset in education\.In Artificial intelligence in education \(aied\)\.
- Conati \(\(2009\)\)Conati, C\.\(2009\)\.Intelligent tutoring systems: New challenges and directions\.In Proceedings of the 21st international joint conference on artificial intelligence \(ijcai\) \( 2–7\)\.
- Corbett & Anderson \(\(1995\)\)Corbett, A\.T\. & Anderson, J\.R\.\(1995\)\.Knowledge tracing: Modeling the acquisition of procedural knowledge\.User Modeling and User\-Adapted Interaction 4 4 253–278\.
- Desmarais & Baker \(\(2012\)\)Desmarais, M\.C\. & Baker, R\.S\.\(2012\)\.A review of recent advances in learner and skill modeling in intelligent learning environments\.User Modeling and User\-Adapted Interaction 22 1–2 \.
- Duque et al\. \(\(2026\)\)Duque, J\., Moreira, J\., Silva, F\. & Gonçalves, H\.\(2026\)\.Artificial intelligence in support of teaching: Predictive models and adaptive systems for personalising learning\.Procedia Computer Science 278 192–199\.
- Efron & Tibshirani \(\(1993\)\)Efron, B\. & Tibshirani, R\.J\.\(1993\)\.An introduction to the bootstrap\.: Chapman & Hall\.
- Embretson & Reise \(\(2000\)\)Embretson, S\.E\. & Reise, S\.P\.\(2000\)\.Item response theory for psychologists\.: Lawrence Erlbaum\.
- Erümit & Çetin \(\(2020\)\)Erümit, A\.K\. & Çetin, İ\.\(2020\)\.Design framework of adaptive intelligent tutoring systems\.Education and Information Technologies 25 5 4477–4500\.
- Essa et al\. \(\(2023\)\)Essa, S\.G\., Celik, T\. & Human\-Hendricks, N\.E\.\(2023\)\.Personalized adaptive learning technologies based on machine learning techniques to identify learning styles: A systematic literature review\.IEEE Access 11 48392–48409\.
- Francis et al\. \(\(2025\)\)Francis, N\. et al\.\(2025\)\.Generative AI, plagiarism risk, and assessment design\.Cited in course research log; verify bibliographic details for camera\-ready
- Fredricks et al\. \(\(2004\)\)Fredricks, J\.A\., Blumenfeld, P\.C\. & Paris, A\.H\.\(2004\)\.School engagement: Potential of the concept, state of the evidence\.Review of Educational Research 74 1 \.
- Gabriel et al\. \(\(2024\)\)Gabriel, F\. et al\.\(2024\)\.Generative AI and digital literacy in education\.Cited in course research log; verify bibliographic details for camera\-ready
- Garcia et al\. \(\(2026\)\)Garcia, A\. et al\.\(2026\)\.A perspective on generative AI and educational justice\.Cited in course research log; verify bibliographic details for camera\-ready
- Gligorea et al\. \(\(2023\)\)Gligorea, I\., Cioca, M\., Oancea, R\., Gorski, A\-T\., Gorski, H\. & Tudorache, P\.\(2023\)\.Adaptive learning using artificial intelligence in e\-learning: A literature review\.Education Sciences 13 12 1216\.
- Hariyanto et al\. \(\(2025\)\)Hariyanto, Kristianingsih, F\.X\.D\. & Maharani, R\.\(2025\)\.Artificial intelligence in adaptive education: A systematic review of techniques for personalized learning\.Discover Education 4 1 458\.
- Henrie et al\. \(\(2015\)\)Henrie, C\.R\., Halverson, L\.R\. & Graham, C\.R\.\(2015\)\.Measuring student engagement in technology\-mediated learning: A review\.Computers & Education 90 \.
- Hubert & Arabie \(\(1985\)\)Hubert, L\. & Arabie, P\.\(1985\)\.Comparing partitions\.Journal of Classification 2 1 193–218\.
- Kasneci et al\. \(\(2023\)\)Kasneci, E\., Seßler, K\., Küchemann, S\., Bannert, M\., Dementieva, D\., Fischer, F\.others\(2023\)\.ChatGPT for good? on opportunities and challenges of large language models for education\.Learning and Individual Differences 103 102274\.
- Koedinger et al\. \(\(1997\)\)Koedinger, K\.R\., Anderson, J\.R\., Hadley, W\.H\. & Mark, M\.A\.\(1997\)\.Intelligent tutoring goes to school in the big city\.International Journal of Artificial Intelligence in Education 8 30–43\.
- Kong et al\. \(\(2025\)\)Kong, K\., Isleem, H\.F\., Aluvalu, R\., Tejani, G\.G\. & Metwally, A\.S\.M\.\(2025\)\.Real\-time cognitive and emotional state tracking in intelligent tutoring systems for enhanced learning outcomes\.Journal of Big Data 12 1 266\.
- Létourneau et al\. \(\(2025\)\)Létourneau, A\., Deslandes Martineau, M\., Charland, P\., Karran, J\.A\., Boasen, J\. & Léger, P\-M\.\(2025\)\.A systematic review of AI\-driven intelligent tutoring systems \(ITS\) in K\-12 education\.npj Science of Learning 10 1 29\.doi:10\.1038/s41539\-025\-00320\-7
- Lin et al\. \(\(2023\)\)Lin, C\-C\., Huang, A\.Y\.Q\. & Lu, O\.H\.T\.\(2023\)\.Artificial intelligence in intelligent tutoring systems toward sustainable education: A systematic review\.Smart Learning Environments 10 1 41\.
- Mousavinasab et al\. \(\(2021\)\)Mousavinasab, E\., Zarifsanaiey, N\., Niakan Kalhori, S\.R\., Rakhshan, M\., Keikha, L\. & Ghazi Saeedi, M\.\(2021\)\.Intelligent tutoring systems: A systematic review of characteristics, applications, and evaluation methods\.Interactive Learning Environments 29 1 142–163\.
- Murray \(\(2003\)\)Murray, T\.\(2003\)\.An overview of intelligent tutoring system authoring tools: Updated analysis of the state of the art\.In Authoring tools for advanced technology learning environments \( 491–544\)\.: Springer\.
- Pandey & Karypis \(\(2019\)\)Pandey, S\. & Karypis, G\.\(2019\)\.A self\-attentive model for knowledge tracing\.In Proceedings of the 12th international conference on educational data mining \(edm\)\.
- Phillips et al\. \(\(2020\)\)Phillips, A\., Pane, J\.F\., Reumann\-Moore, R\. & Shenbanjo, O\.\(2020\)\.Implementing an adaptive intelligent tutoring system as an instructional supplement\.Educational Technology Research and Development 68 3 1409–1437\.
- Phobun & Vicheanpanya \(\(2010\)\)Phobun, P\. & Vicheanpanya, J\.\(2010\)\.Adaptive intelligent tutoring systems for e\-learning systems\.Procedia \- Social and Behavioral Sciences 2 2 4064–4069\.
- Rasch \(\(1960\)\)Rasch, G\.\(1960\)\.Probabilistic models for some intelligence and attainment tests\.: Danish Institute for Educational Research\.
- Roll et al\. \(\(2007\)\)Roll, I\., Aleven, V\., McLaren, B\.M\. & Koedinger, K\.R\.\(2007\)\.Designing for metacognition—applying cognitive tutor principles to the tutoring of help seeking\.Metacognition and Learning 2 2 125–140\.
- Sapountzi et al\. \(\(2019\)\)Sapountzi, A\., Bhulai, S\., Cornelisz, I\. & Van Klaveren, C\.P\.B\.J\.\(2019\)\.Dynamic knowledge tracing models for large\-scale adaptive learning environments\.International Journal on Advances in Intelligent Systems 12 1&2 93–110\.
- Vendramin et al\. \(\(2010\)\)Vendramin, L\., Campello, R\.J\.G\.B\. & Hruschka, E\.R\.\(2010\)\.Relative clustering validity criteria: A comparative overview\.Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 3 4 \.
- von Luxburg \(\(2010\)\)von Luxburg, U\.\(2010\)\.Clustering stability: An overview\.Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 2 3 235–274\.
- Wang & Sahebi \(\(2023\)\)Wang, C\. & Sahebi, S\.\(2023\)\.Continuous personalized knowledge tracing: Modeling long\-term learning in online environments\.In Proceedings of the 32nd acm international conference on information and knowledge management \( 2616–2625\)\.
- Winne & Hadwin \(\(1998\)\)Winne, P\.H\. & Hadwin, A\.F\.\(1998\)\.Studying as self\-regulated learning\.In D\.J\. Hacker, J\. Dunlosky & A\.C\. Graesser \(Eds\.\), Metacognition in educational theory and practice \( 277–304\)\.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates\.
- Xie et al\. \(\(2019\)\)Xie, H\., Chu, H\-C\., Hwang, G\-J\. & Wang, C\-C\.\(2019\)\.Trends and development in technology\-enhanced adaptive/personalized learning: A systematic review of journal publications from 2007 to 2017\.Computers & Education 140 103599\.Cite key retained from research log \(Xie2007\-nd\); publication year is 2019

## Appendix

### \.1Exemplar parent\-style timelines

Figure[5](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963#A0.F5)shows nearest\-centroid exemplars \(first 200 actions\) for each parent style\. Typical\-majority and revision\-heavy exemplars concentrate activity in a short early burst; the reading\-focused exemplar shows a second session after a long idle gap; the video\-heavy exemplar mixes video with repeated returns; the problem\-first exemplar stretches sparse problem\-solving across a long calendar span\. Temporal density and action mix differ sharply even when late mastery does not; these timelines are illustrative face\-validity checks, not causal evidence\.

![Refer to caption](https://arxiv.org/html/2608.16963v1/project_graphs/task15_exemplars_1.png)Figure 5:Nearest\-centroid exemplar action timelines for parent styles \(first 200 actions\)\.