The cost of a given X level of AI intelligence is cut in half every 2-4 months.

Grok 4.5 was released and they claim they offer a performance similar to Opus 4.7 with half of the cost. While this remains to be seen and to be confirmed, let's see how this claim seems to follow a trend we are experiencing the last years. I have collected all the data of the Epoch AI, which is combination of various state-of-the-art benchmarks (e.g., MMLU, GPQA, coding, reasoning tests), combined into 1 score, the ECI (Estimated Capability Index). The ECI score renders reliably in between two models, from model A to model B, meaning it can capture the difference of the generic capabilities between two AI models. In March 14, 2023, the GPT-4 model was released, and it has an ECI score of 126 points. Scenario: Let's suppose now that someone wants to achieve something that is sufficient to be achieved with an ECI score of 126, so they want to "get a level of intelligence of ECI 126 by paying the absolute minimum cost currently in the market". During that time (March 14, 2023), to get the level of intelligence of ECI 126, you had to pay $37.5 (input/output blended). Today you have to pay $0.13. This is a 99.6% decrease in price for the exact same minimum level of intelligence. Here it is a graph to understand the drop of the cost. Cost of getting a level of intelligence of at least ECI 126 over time In January 20, 2025, DeepSeek-R1 became the first model to hit the ECI 140 mark. At that time, it set the initial minimum cost for this intelligence tier at $0.96 (input/output blended). Within just three months, the price floor collapsed with the release of Grok-3 mini in April 9, 2025 brought the cost down to just $0.26 while maintaining an ECI 141. This is a 72% decrease in cost over a very short period (3 months). Cost of getting a level of intelligence of at least ECI 140 over time Continuing, the GPT-5.1 was released in Nov 13, 2025 with an ECI 150 and with a cost of $3.43 (input/output blended) to achieve it. Four months later, on December 17, 2025, Google released Gemini 3 Flash with an ECI 151. This release shattered the previous price floor, bringing the minimum cost down to $1.12 (input/output blended) . This represents a 67% reduction in cost in just over four months. Cost of getting a level of intelligence of at least ECI 150 over time Ultimately, data shows that as a general rule for the current market, you can expect: The price of an "X" level of intelligence to drop by at least half, every 2 to 4 months. This is absolutely incredible to think about it. We don't know what exactly ECI score could somehow represent a "human level intelligence", but given that human level of intelligence is fixed over time and it is not moving, if we continue like this there will be a point in time that we will reach "human-level intelligence" with a cost that is nearly nothing to consider about.