Will we have a 27B model with Fable capabilities in 5 months? History says yes

Reddit r/LocalLLaMA News

Summary

Discussion about whether open-source 27B models will soon match the capabilities of recently banned frontier models like GPT-5.1 and Sonnet 4.5, citing historical trends where Qwen 3.6 caught up within months.

If history is any indication, open-source models in the 27B dense range should have caught up to what the US government banned two weeks ago because they thought they were too dangerous in less than half a year from now. Qwen 3.6 27B outperformed models that were considered frontier models only 5 months prior to its release. According to AA it's on par with GPT-5.1 and Sonnet 4.5. Do you think it is still technically possible for the Fable / GPT 5.6 / Kimi K3 class of models? And do you think labs will continue to release open source models like Qwen 3.7 / 3.8 / 4.0? Or Gemma 5? ​​​ https://preview.redd.it/pp955pj46odh1.png?width=2342&format=png&auto=webp&s=27512187f0916038f829eac3e7451a26c3079152 https://preview.redd.it/k8cvcoj46odh1.png?width=2342&format=png&auto=webp&s=33aff8b4e7bdc788315ac53adac63d82bd8bcde4 https://preview.redd.it/0swptoj46odh1.png?width=2360&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a5a5e6702ed32843f5dd473bf5ab40b3e11c681
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