@MMMusol: Many thanks to Serenity @aleabitoreddit for recommending good targets to our Chinese readers. Since I've been discussing this stock with seniors recently, I'd like to add some personal thoughts as a footnote to Serenity: 1. Leaderdrive's humanoid robot orders have exploded this year. As of mid-May, cumulative orders...

Thank you Serenity @aleabitoreddit for recommending good targets to our Chinese readers. Since I’ve also been discussing this stock with seniors recently, I’d like to add a few personal thoughts to supplement Serenity’s analysis:

1. LeaderDrive’s humanoid robot orders have already exploded this year. As of mid-May, cumulative orders reached several hundred thousand units—last year’s total humanoid shipments were only 100,000. Orders from a single major customer alone exceeded the company’s entire last year level.

In short, supply cannot keep up with demand.

2. Capacity is being expanded aggressively. Current monthly production of harmonic reducers is 60,000 units, with a year-end target of doubling to 100,000–120,000 per month. Construction in progress is 240 million yuan, up 136% year-over-year.

This rate of capital spending is itself a signal—you only invest like this when you have orders in hand.

3. North American production capacity will come online in August. Joint venture with Minth to build a production line in the US. Across the entire Tesla robot supply chain, the number of actuator companies capable of building capacity on US soil can be counted on one hand.

The hedge against trade friction is already in play.

4. This year, humanoid-related revenue is expected to be 350 million+ yuan, with profit of 50 million+ yuan. The share of humanoid revenue may exceed 40%.

Sell-side target market cap is 80 billion yuan, broken down as: harmonic reducers 60 billion + joint assemblies 20 billion + transmission components 10 billion.

Serenity is right—this is essentially a “toll road” business where every humanoid robot has to pay a fee. In the harmonic reducer segment, equipment barriers + process know-how + first-mover capacity form a triple moat.

Domestically, only a handful of players can succeed, and LeaderDrive holds the lion’s share. The issue now is not whether orders exist, but whether capacity can keep up.

The one point that makes me hesitate—and I’d like to ask Serenity about this too: the valuation is no longer cheap. At a market cap of 57.7 billion yuan, the multiple on this year’s profit is quite high.

But if you believe humanoid robots can truly scale to hundreds of thousands of units next year or the year after, then the current valuation is simply paying for certainty.

It all comes down to how we price that word “certainty.”

Serenity (@aleabitoreddit): Written especially for my Chinese readers:

LeaderDrive (688017, 57.73 billion yuan market cap) is the Chinese listed company I favor most when laying out a position in the humanoid robot track.

Their business covers:

Harmonic reducers (reportedly with over 60% domestic market share and 1,800+ global customers)

Humanoid robot rotary joint reducers

Linear actuators

Motors/joints, and many other core components.