Argues that OpenAI and Anthropic will not survive long term because big tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Apple have larger ecosystems and can offer better free tiers, similar to Dropbox's decline.
Hello, After studying how Dropbox rose but still lost market dominance the parallels with Ai are the same these Ai Labs long term won’t make it here’s why. Just like Dropbox, OpenAi started out with a high consumer adoption, and also they used the classic subscription model. The problem with this is the Freemium model most consumers will use it for free and eventually players like Google and Microsoft started having their own cloud storage solution eventually stifling out Dropbox’s market share and why did I think of them? The main reason is a large ecosystem, Google and Microsoft already have credibility and a large ecosystem and with this they offered better pricing and better free tiers than Dropbox and because of the ecosystem a lot of people just went with them. Companies like OpenAi and Anthropic I see them in the same state, Google and Microsoft and even apple own an ecosystem. Just like Steve Jobs said to the Dropbox founder after the founder rejected apple “You’re a feature not a product” I think the same applies for Ai it’s a feature not a product in itself. I might clown on Google time to time for how dumb Gemini is but look at how they are integrating Gemini into everything from gmail, to google pixel, YouTube and more, Microsoft is the same with copilot and now apple is rolling out its own on device ai(still powered by Gemini) and mind u they didn’t go with openai or anthropic they rather go with google. these big guys have the resources and the infrastructure while anthropic and openai are just burning through things like it’s nothing. Sorry but not every consumer is willing to pay a subscription model if someone has greater free tiers it’s over and an ecosystem is just overkill. The companies are betting on a future and trying to go through the Amazon path not being profitable at first and building infrastructure but betting on the vision. The problem with this is on Amazon you paid for products and got what you paid for, most people use ai for free so that’s a different thing and why I don’t think they’ll succeed long term. I maybe wrong what do you guys think?
The article questions whether OpenAI and Anthropic can survive the growing competition from Chinese open-weight AI models that are lowering prices and closing capability gaps.
The article argues that major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are discontinuing support for open-weight AI models, potentially leading to a monopoly in enterprise AI due to their investments in OpenAI and Anthropic.
Dylan Patel predicts that Anthropic and OpenAI will control most of the world's AI compute by 2028 due to superior monetization and economies of scale, raising concerns about centralization and potential sovereign debt crises.
Forbes analyzes the contrasting financial trajectories of OpenAI and Anthropic as they approach public listings, highlighting Anthropic's enterprise-driven profitability versus OpenAI's consumer-scale losses.