@TaoRay: We have officially entered the second half of 2026. At the beginning of this year, I gave my first Space on investing (you can go back and check it out), where I was bullish on US stocks and Japanese stocks. Indeed, the gains were substantial. Now we will look ahead to the second half. I believe everyone has seen the news that institutions are urging OpenAI to go public next year instead, because they think the market environment will be better than in the second half...

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Summary

TaoRay analyzes the reasons why institutions are pushing OpenAI to go public in 2027 instead of the second half of 2026, explores Wall Street's assessment of market cycles and the sustainability of AI capital expenditure, and invites members to participate in an in-depth discussion.

We have officially entered the second half of 2026. At the beginning of this year, I gave my first Space on investing (you can go check it out), where I was bullish on US stocks and Japanese stocks. The gains were indeed impressive. Now we will look ahead to the second half. I believe everyone has seen the news that institutions are urging OpenAI to go public next year instead, because they think the market environment then will be better than in the second half. Does this mean that Wall Street expects a crisis in the second half, and that 2027 will usher in a new boom cycle? AI has not yet fully transmitted downstream; it still relies on capital expenditure as a lifeline. Shouldn't it go public as soon as possible? The longer the time, the weaker the sustainability and efficiency of capital expenditure, right? And on top of that, there is the pressure of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Why is that? Do institutions expect a crisis in the second half? Or will AI fully explode, bringing even greater prosperity in 2027? We will try to deconstruct the institutions' thinking in the members-only Space and attempt to gain some insights.
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@TaoRay: The recent market trend is very healthy! It also confirms my view over the past few weeks: a turning point is coming, AI development and investment have entered a new stage, where "the upstream falls, the downstream benefits," creating new room for imagination. From institutions suggesting OpenAI go public next year, to Samsung's earnings beating expectations yesterday, but the upstream saw a sharp correction while software cash cows accelerated their rise. What I predicted earlier...

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The author comments that recent market trends align with their previous predictions, believing AI development has entered a new phase where the upstream corrects and the downstream software benefits, reaffirming confidence in the second-half trend.

@WSInsights: https://x.com/WSInsights/status/2052986400740638991

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A Chinese analysis article covering Sequoia Capital's 2026 AI Ascent closed-door summit, summarizing key insights from attendees including Demis Hassabis, Andrej Karpathy, and Greg Brockman: AGI has arrived, 2026 is the year of Agents, AI will reshape white-collar work, and a 6-step action plan for ordinary people to adapt.

@TaoRay: Yes, a few weeks ago, when AI upstream hardware was at its peak of hype, I asserted against the trend on Space that "the market inflection point is coming, the upstream falls, the downstream eats its fill, it's time to position in software cash cows." The market indeed developed that way. I have a very important observation: "In recent years, the increase of retail investors and speculative funds in the market will increase the amplitude of volatility, but on the contrary..."

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The author recalls the previous prediction of the inflection point in AI upstream hardware hype, believes that the market will see sector rotation with downstream software benefiting, and points out that the increase in retail investors will amplify volatility but make the pattern more certain.