@0xTatara: this paper is f*cking insane a Columbia paper built a strictly causal Hidden Markov Model that adapts as market regimes…
Summary
A Columbia University paper introduces a strictly causal Hidden Markov Model that adapts to changing market regimes, achieving a 2.18 Sharpe ratio vs 1.18 for SPX buy & hold and reducing max drawdown from -14.62% to -5.43% during the 2025 selloff.
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Cached at: 07/22/26, 06:23 AM
this paper is f*cking insane
a Columbia paper built a strictly causal Hidden Markov Model that adapts as market regimes change
the result: 2.18 Sharpe vs 1.18 for SPX buy & hold, while cutting max drawdown from -14.62% to -5.43%
during the 2025 selloff it automatically reduced equity exposure and rotated into defensive assets
the crazy part is it does this without looking into the future
bookmark before this thread gets buried
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