@DeRonin_: everyone thinks you can point an LLM at prediction markets and "print money" i tested it on Limitless that's not what h…

everyone thinks you can point an LLM at prediction markets and "print money" i tested it on Limitless that's not what happens recent benchmark: 7 frontier models on live markets only 2 made money the rest lost while reporting high confidence so the edge isn't "let AI trade" the edge is knowing WHERE the model is actually sharp here's the forecaster i built on the Limitless API: [ how it works ] - pulls live markets via the Limitless API - runs each through an LLM with a research step (news, prices, context) - forces a probability, not a vibe - compares the model's number vs the real market odds - only flags markets where the gap is real AND the reasoning holds the useful part: it filters out the markets where the model is just loud and confident which is most of them what's left is a short list where the model might actually have an edge every piece is replicable repo + full breakdown drops in the next post still early financial risk is real this is research, not advice