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Election officials are taking steps to mitigate potential chaos and distrust caused by prediction markets in the midterms, including new oaths for workers to prevent manipulation and aggression.
ProblyHQ is developing a personalization layer for prediction markets that adapts feeds to user interests, focusing on real-time markets across various domains like crypto and sports.
Polymarket has updated its 5-minute BTC markets to use 60-second TWAP instead of 30 seconds, aiming to reduce manipulation by large traders.
Prediction market startup Novig bans users under 21, citing concerns about risky behavior among teens, while navigating regulatory battles over sports event contracts in the US.
The CFTC is asserting exclusive authority to regulate prediction markets like Kalshi, attempting to override New York gambling laws and keep Kalshi operating amid ongoing legal battles.
Bloomberg data shows 14 of the 20 most profitable Polymarket wallets are AI bots, with over 100,000 humans losing at least $1,000 since January last year. The article argues that AI agents have taken over prediction markets, leaving retail traders at a structural disadvantage.
Michael Mauboussin's new book *The Wisdom of Crowds in Markets* is summarized, exploring when markets exhibit collective wisdom versus frenzy, with deep insights into prediction markets, betting markets, and stock market information aggregation.
A trader on Polymarket earned $3,324.98 in two weeks by buying weather forecast contracts at low prices when predictions are nearly certain, highlighting a niche opportunity in weather prediction markets.
U.S. senators are calling for a crackdown on wildfire prediction markets, arguing they create perverse incentives and monetize disasters. Polymarket defends its approach, while wildfire experts express disgust at the practice.
A tweet highlights a Polymarket trader who has made ~$1.95M across 20,691 predictions by buying heavily discounted Bitcoin contracts, applying institutional market-making strategies (Jane Street style) to prediction markets.
New York Attorney General Letitia James is suing Kalshi, alleging the prediction market runs an illegal gambling operation and seeks to block it from operating in the state.
Former DOGE affiliates Jonathan Mendelson and Elie Mishory have taken senior roles at prediction market companies Polymarket and Novig, respectively, highlighting the intersection of government efficiency initiatives and the prediction market industry.
A federal judge blocked Minnesota's law banning prediction markets, ruling that many trades qualify as swaps under federal jurisdiction, while allowing the state to potentially prohibit certain types of event contracts.
An economist reflects on the unintended consequences of deregulating prediction markets, highlighting how they have become dominated by sports gambling and warning about asymmetric information problems.
This paper introduces a method that uses LLMs combined with prediction markets to measure how information ecosystems bias strategic beliefs, applying it to Ukraine-related markets and finding that English news sources systematically distort territorial predictions.
This paper investigates whether aggregating probability estimates from multiple LLMs exhibits a wisdom-of-crowds effect, finding that learned aggregators outperform individual models and that training cutoff contamination is a pervasive confound in such evaluations.
This MIT Technology Review roundup covers new research showing LLMs develop their own biases and stereotype job applicants more than humans, and discusses how weather data manipulation for prediction markets threatens AI weather forecasting accuracy.
The article examines the growing threat of weather data manipulation, exacerbated by prediction markets and AI forecasting, and highlights a real-world incident where a Paris weather station was tampered with to influence betting outcomes.
A White House teleprompter aide used insider knowledge of Trump's speeches to make $100,000 betting on a prediction market called Kalshi, leading to his removal after the platform flagged the activity.
Kalshi has created a tool that plots the future price of computing power using prediction markets, aiming to build a forward curve for GPU rental costs.