@FinanceYF5: 1/The entry window for AI capability competition has closed? There are only three years to enter this race: from February 2023 to February 2026, and now the window has closed. Most countries have permanently missed the boat. It's not pessimism, it's a conclusion someone reached after using Fable. Why would a model make him feel this way?
Summary
A Twitter thread discusses whether the entry window for AI capability competition has closed, citing the user experience of the Fable model, and argues that the window from February 2023 to February 2026 has closed, with most countries having permanently missed the opportunity.
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Cached at: 06/21/26, 04:34 AM
1/ Has the entry window for the AI capability race already closed?
The time to enter this race was only three years: February 2023 to February 2026, and now the window has shut.
Most countries have permanently missed this train.
Not pessimism
It’s a conclusion drawn by someone after using Fable
Why did one model give him this feeling? 👇 https://t.co/Pzc32nWNtf
2/ He never evaluates models based on benchmark numbers
What he truly cares about is just one thing:
【The shape of the model’s thinking】
— How deeply it understands user intent
— How far it can iterate its thinking
— Whether it makes you feel “is there someone on the other side”
Fable gave him that sense of aliveness
“Like going back to 2023”
3/ He believes the leap in AI capability over the past 5 months
Comes not only from tools like Claude Code
But because of 【Mythos】 — a new model from Anthropic
That quietly changed the entire R&D rhythm after completing training in February of this year
Key judgment: The leading models are now helping to train the next generation of leading models
This cycle has already started
3/ Some rush in, some are busy building walls
Musk pushed to the frontier in 26 months — one of the few who seriously tried.
Europe spent a lot of time setting up regulatory barriers, but by the time they woke up, it was too late.
4/ Your “national AI” might just be a shell
Many countries’ “homegrown models” are actually just a layer of skin wrapped around models from labs in the US or China.
Once the supply is cut off, the effect is like an airstrike — instant paralysis.
5/ Compute will be treated like uranium
Advanced chips will be licensed, monitored, and kept within the US; open source can alleviate the situation, but it can’t save countries that lack compute and talent.
When open source approaches the frontier, global regulatory crackdowns will follow.
6/ His final conclusion, and the harshest sentence:
“If you are not building it now
you will just be a spectator”
AI is not about writing code, copyright, or art
It’s about the reshaping of civilization, society, and humanity itself
This is the correction he made to his own timeline
After using Fable for one day
Read the original:
That’s all
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1/ There’s a new tax on AI engineering
In the latest BVP survey, 90% of tech/engineering teams have already embedded AI into their core workflows; code generation at 92%, code review enhancement at 79%, and agentic development at 60%.
What truly widens the gap is not whether you use AI, but whether you can still maintain quality and understanding after speeding up.
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@FinanceYF5: 2/ He never looks at benchmark numbers when evaluating models. The only thing he truly cares about is: [The shape of the model's thinking] — How deeply can it understand user intent? — How far can it iterate in its thinking? — Does it make you feel like there's someone on the other side? Fable gave him this sense of aliveness. 'It feels like returning to 2023'
This tweet emphasizes that when evaluating AI models, one should not only look at benchmark numbers but focus on the model's 'shape of thinking' — the depth of understanding user intent, the ability to iterate in thinking, and the feeling of 'someone on the other side'. The author believes Fable excels in this regard, reminiscent of the experience in 2023.
Why is fable 5 included only till June 22? Does anthropic really thinks the model is too insane?
Anthropic's new model, possibly codenamed Fable 5, achieves cutting-edge performance across major AI benchmarks, excels in software engineering, long-context tasks, and is available only until June 22, raising questions about its capabilities and limitations.
@FinanceYF5: 2/ Elman's core judgment: Two things happened simultaneously, opening the window of opportunity. [First] AI has fundamentally changed what ordinary users can do. [Second] Gen Alpha are native world-builders—grew up with Roblox and Minecraft, with no preconception that 'Apps must be used this way.'
Elman believes that AI has fundamentally changed what ordinary users can do, and Gen Alpha, as native world-builders growing up with Roblox and Minecraft, have no preconceptions about how apps should be used. Together, these two things open a new window of opportunity.
@FinanceYF5: Can applications still be built? 1/ Don't jump to conclusions — will OpenAI and Anthropic swallow all software? That's the wrong question — the right one is: which path are you on?
Discusses whether application-layer developers still have opportunities given that giants like OpenAI and Anthropic may dominate the underlying AI capabilities, and how to choose the right direction.
@FinanceYF5: 3/ He believes the AI capability leap in the past 5 months comes not only from tool advancements like Claude Code, but because of 【Mythos】—a new Anthropic model that quietly changed the entire R&D rhythm after its training completed in February this year. Key takeaway: Leading models are helping to train the next generation of leading models...
According to speculation, Anthropic's new model Mythos, after completing training in February this year, quietly changed the R&D rhythm, leading to a significant leap in AI capabilities over the past 5 months. Leading models are helping to train the next generation of models.