@WinForKakei: Let me use Tencent as an example. Tencent's 2025 capex is even lower than guidance. As clearly stated in last year's earnings call, this is because they couldn't buy NVIDIA GPUs (due to AI chip supply constraints) and were unwilling to buy domestic chips. Of course, they compromised this year and have started ordering Kunlun chips. Actually, Pony Ma is not as Zen or content with being a latecomer as people say...

Let me use Tencent as an example. Tencent's 2025 capex is lower than guidance. As explained clearly in last year's earnings call, this was because they couldn't procure NVIDIA GPUs (due to AI chip supply constraints) and were unwilling to purchase domestic alternatives. Of course, they compromised this year and have begun ordering Kunlun chips. In reality, Pony Ma isn't as Zen or content with being a "late mover" as the public perceives. According to internal management and employees, Mr. Ma was quite anxious, only feeling somewhat relieved after the release of Hunyuan 3.0. At the previous trough, Tencent's core business valuation dropped to around 10x PE. At that time, it faced pressure from non-market factors such as the A4 paper regulatory incident, rampant rumors, and turning negative revenues and profits, leaving the future highly uncertain. In contrast, the current fundamentals are much clearer than in 2022: games are thriving both domestically and internationally, there is still massive room for growth in the monetization rate of Video Accounts, and advertising and cloud businesses align well with capex. The market's only concern is slightly falling behind on large model products that could potentially destroy value. By the way, the gap in large models is likely smaller than most people imagine; the fact that Luo Fuli could develop Mimo illustrates this point. Additionally, the CEO of Anthropic has publicly stated that other AI labs' capabilities lag by only about 1-3 months. Of course, Tencent is currently trading at more than 10x PE. If we value its core business at 10x PE for this year, that corresponds to 2.2 trillion RMB. Adding equity and cash (another 1.2 trillion RMB) discounted at 80% gives roughly 1 trillion RMB. A Tencent valuation of 3.2 trillion RMB corresponds to a stock price of 403. If the market trades at this price, I would be very happy to buy significantly more. #Tencent