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Anjney Midha shares a speculative timeline for AI progress, from ChatGPT's consumer success in 2022 to advanced manufacturing and materials 2.0 by 2029, driven by a Cambrian explosion of R&D.
The article critiques the common AI talking point that all exponentials become sigmoids, arguing that while individual technologies plateau, new breakthroughs can create new sigmoids, so AI progress may not necessarily level off permanently.
Matt Shumer reflects on the rapid advancement of AI technology, acknowledging that he previously underestimated the speed of progress in the field.
OpenAI publishes a position paper on AI progress and recommendations, discussing the rapid advancement of AI systems beyond the Turing test milestone, projections for discovery-making capabilities by 2026-2028, and their commitment to safety and alignment research as AI becomes more capable.