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Evolving with Open Worlds: Towards Recursive Self-Improvement for Future Forecasting

Hugging Face Daily Papers ↗ · 2026-10-21 Cached

论文提出 DeepEvolve,一个基于未来事件预测的可持续进化智能体系统,通过在动态开放环境中与现实世界结果对齐实现递归自我改进(RSI),其自我改进的预测器在 FutureX 排行榜连续三周排名第一,评级提升最高达 195%。

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#future-forecasting

@chengyongru: One agent thinks A has a 51% probability of happening, another thinks 99%. But as long as they both end up submitting A, in FutureX's single-choice questions, a correct answer scores 1 point and a wrong answer scores 0. After reading the FutureX paper carefully, this example has stayed in my mind.…

X AI KOLs Timeline ↗ · 2026-08-04 Cached

The author comments on FutureX's prediction evaluation framework, pointing out that it only scores final answers and cannot distinguish the quality of probability calibration, and discusses finer-grained evaluation methods such as Brier score and log loss.

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