kalshi

A White House teleprompter aide used insider knowledge of Trump's speeches to make $100,000 betting on a prediction market called Kalshi, leading to his removal after the platform flagged the activity.

Kalshi's surveillance flagged and referred trades by Trump's teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez, who allegedly used inside information to win over $100,000 betting on what Trump would say during speeches, highlighting ongoing insider trading concerns in prediction markets.

Kalshi has created a tool that plots the future price of computing power using prediction markets, aiming to build a forward curve for GPU rental costs.

A federal judge ruled that New York can enforce its gambling laws against prediction market Kalshi, rejecting the company's argument that federal commodity law preempts state regulation. The decision adds to conflicting circuit court rulings, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.

This paper establishes a formal equivalence between predictive accuracy and profitability in order-book-based prediction markets, introducing a proper betting strategy that converts accuracy into profit, and validates it with a live deployment on Kalshi achieving 80.33% ROI.

Spotify confirmed streaming manipulation after Kalshi trader Caleb Davies flagged suspicious bot activity on the song 'Earrings' by Malcolm Todd, leading to the removal of over 500,000 artificial streams and adjustments to charts.

Kalshi sues Illinois over a new law taxing prediction market sports bets, arguing it unfairly classifies them as unlicensed gambling operators while facing potential felony charges.

Meta is reportedly developing a prediction markets app called Arena, similar to Polymarket and Kalshi, but initially using points instead of real money, as an internal top priority.

Kalshi introduces new market integrity measures including employment verification for certain bets, coinciding with the CFTC's first proposed regulation for prediction markets amid rising insider trading cases.

Polymarket and Kalshi have asked influencer partners to remove paid partnership tags from posts that question election results, as the platforms enforce policies against election denial narratives.

Spain has blocked access to prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi for operating without a gambling license, highlighting ongoing regulatory scrutiny of crypto-based prediction platforms.

The article examines the failure of prediction markets to achieve their utopian vision and argues that AI can transform them by enhancing market creation, analysis, and accuracy, shifting focus from sports and crypto to high-impact questions.

A builder reflects on their AI trading agent Pip, which uses 17 hard gates instead of structured context files like CLAUDE.md, and questions whether the workspace is for the agent or the builder.

An analysis of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, examining whether their massive trading volume actually produces valuable forecasting information or merely serves as gambling, referencing historical academic support and current data.

OctagonAI released an open-source CLI that backtests AI-driven edge detection on Kalshi prediction markets, executing sized trades via half-Kelly sizing and a 5-gate risk engine.