kalshi

Spain has blocked access to prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi for operating without a gambling license, highlighting ongoing regulatory scrutiny of crypto-based prediction platforms.

The article examines the failure of prediction markets to achieve their utopian vision and argues that AI can transform them by enhancing market creation, analysis, and accuracy, shifting focus from sports and crypto to high-impact questions.

A builder reflects on their AI trading agent Pip, which uses 17 hard gates instead of structured context files like CLAUDE.md, and questions whether the workspace is for the agent or the builder.

An analysis of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, examining whether their massive trading volume actually produces valuable forecasting information or merely serves as gambling, referencing historical academic support and current data.

OctagonAI released an open-source CLI that backtests AI-driven edge detection on Kalshi prediction markets, executing sized trades via half-Kelly sizing and a 5-gate risk engine.