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#log-likelihood

TUBE: Tangent Upper Bound on Evidence for Discrete Diffusion Language Models

arXiv cs.LG · 2026-05-26 Cached

Introduces TUBE, a variational upper bound on log-likelihood for discrete diffusion language models, enabling better evaluation and revealing that masked diffusion models still underperform autoregressive models.

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#log-likelihood

Log-Likelihood, Simpson's Paradox, and the Detection of Machine-Generated Text

arXiv cs.CL · 2026-05-08 Cached

This paper addresses the degradation of likelihood-based machine-generated text detectors by identifying a Simpson's paradox in token-score aggregation. It proposes a learned local calibration step that significantly improves detection performance across various models and datasets.

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#log-likelihood

On the quantitative analysis of decoder-based generative models

OpenAI Blog · 2016-11-14 Cached

This paper proposes using Annealed Importance Sampling to evaluate log-likelihoods for decoder-based generative models (VAEs, GANs, etc.), addressing the challenge of intractable likelihood estimation. The authors validate their method and provide evaluation code to analyze model performance, overfitting, and mode coverage.

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