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New York Attorney General Letitia James is suing Kalshi, alleging the prediction market runs an illegal gambling operation and seeks to block it from operating in the state.
Former DOGE affiliates Jonathan Mendelson and Elie Mishory have taken senior roles at prediction market companies Polymarket and Novig, respectively, highlighting the intersection of government efficiency initiatives and the prediction market industry.
A federal judge blocked Minnesota's law banning prediction markets, ruling that many trades qualify as swaps under federal jurisdiction, while allowing the state to potentially prohibit certain types of event contracts.
An economist reflects on the unintended consequences of deregulating prediction markets, highlighting how they have become dominated by sports gambling and warning about asymmetric information problems.
This paper introduces a method that uses LLMs combined with prediction markets to measure how information ecosystems bias strategic beliefs, applying it to Ukraine-related markets and finding that English news sources systematically distort territorial predictions.
This paper investigates whether aggregating probability estimates from multiple LLMs exhibits a wisdom-of-crowds effect, finding that learned aggregators outperform individual models and that training cutoff contamination is a pervasive confound in such evaluations.
This MIT Technology Review roundup covers new research showing LLMs develop their own biases and stereotype job applicants more than humans, and discusses how weather data manipulation for prediction markets threatens AI weather forecasting accuracy.
The article examines the growing threat of weather data manipulation, exacerbated by prediction markets and AI forecasting, and highlights a real-world incident where a Paris weather station was tampered with to influence betting outcomes.
A White House teleprompter aide used insider knowledge of Trump's speeches to make $100,000 betting on a prediction market called Kalshi, leading to his removal after the platform flagged the activity.
Kalshi has created a tool that plots the future price of computing power using prediction markets, aiming to build a forward curve for GPU rental costs.
Promotion of Stride, a copy trading platform for sports prediction markets, highlighting a trader with zero max drawdown who has made consistent profits.
A federal judge ruled that New York can enforce its gambling laws against prediction market Kalshi, rejecting the company's argument that federal commodity law preempts state regulation. The decision adds to conflicting circuit court rulings, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
This paper establishes a formal equivalence between predictive accuracy and profitability in order-book-based prediction markets, introducing a proper betting strategy that converts accuracy into profit, and validates it with a live deployment on Kalshi achieving 80.33% ROI.
Raven-Agent is the first autonomous trading agent for prediction markets, featuring an explicit belief-to-trade layer. It achieves positive returns on a controlled replay, bridging the gap between calibrated forecasts and profitable trading.
Testing 7 frontier models on live prediction markets found only 2 made money; a forecaster tool built on the Limitless API flags markets where models have a real edge.
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow people to bet on wildfire outcomes, including the recent Los Angeles fires, raising ethical concerns from survivors about callousness and potential arson incentives.
This paper introduces InfoDelphi, a framework that uses information asymmetry (partitioning evidence into shared public and disjoint private subsets) to improve multi-agent LLM deliberation and forecasting. On the PolyGym benchmark, it outperforms single-agent and multi-agent baselines by 12-18% in Brier score and 4-8 percentage points in accuracy, demonstrating that diverse evidence is key to effective multi-agent reasoning.
Spotify confirmed streaming manipulation after Kalshi trader Caleb Davies flagged suspicious bot activity on the song 'Earrings' by Malcolm Todd, leading to the removal of over 500,000 artificial streams and adjustments to charts.
Explores whether ensembles of AI models could outperform human crowds in prediction markets, questioning if AI consensus will eventually surpass human forecasting accuracy.
Gergely Orosz comments on companies pivoting to AI-driven products in unfamiliar fields, citing Meta's new prediction markets app 'Arena' as an example.