statistics

This paper describes two pre-specified empirical tests to evaluate whether phase-derived features improve prediction accuracy for commitment or contradiction endpoints, but results show no significant improvement over baseline models.

A live dashboard that counts and displays AI-related headlines on Hacker News, resetting the timer each time a new AI headline appears.

This article discusses statistical methods to predict the release dates of AI models, likely analyzing trends and patterns in development cycles.

An analysis of fix-commit proportions in popular GitHub repositories finds an average fix-ratio of about 10%, slightly lower than the author's previous observation of 15% in production software.

This paper critiques the pessimistic meta-inductive argument against scientific realism by leveraging convergence concepts from frequentist statistics and machine learning, showing that ordinary induction achieves convergence while meta-induction fails.

This tweet announces the second edition of 'Introduction to Modern Statistics,' an open-source textbook available for free online or at a name-your-own-price PDF.

This paper introduces a low-rank degree-two density projection method for nonparametric changepoint detection in high dimensions, using matrix mean estimation to handle distributional changes without parametric assumptions.

The article highlights the paper 'A Gentle Introduction to Matrix Calculus' by Jan Magnus, published in the Journal of Econometrics in 2024, as a clear and valuable resource for fields like econometrics, machine learning, statistics, and optimization.

Tweet promoting the third edition of the statistics textbook 'Designing Experiments and Analyzing Data: A Model Comparison Perspective' by Maxwell, Delaney, and Kelley, highlighting its pedagogical features and the authors' academic credentials.

This paper provides a theoretical analysis of innovation-residual auditing for autonomous analysis agents, studying how to localize errors in agent-generated data analyses, control false flags, and identify fundamental limits on error attribution.

A browser game simulating human-in-the-loop approval of AI coding agent commands shows that players miss about 1 in 3 threats on average, with credential-exfiltrating commands missed far more often than destructive ones.

GitHub reports a 16% quarter-over-quarter jump in outbound collaboration in Q1 2026, highlighting significant growth in open source contributions across the EU, India, and Singapore since 2020.

Alexander Rakhlin has been named director of the MIT Statistics and Data Science Center, succeeding Ankur Moitra, and will lead interdisciplinary statistics and AI research efforts.

An article examining evidence that the Dunning-Kruger effect may be a statistical artifact rather than a real psychological bias, discussing criticisms and David Dunning's response.

The author describes rebuilding four years of personal Wordle statistics by parsing WhatsApp chat logs with a Python script, since Wordle's own stats are limited and server-side.

An essay discussing the common statistical fallacy of averaging percentiles, framed with Hamlet quotes and Hacker News examples, and arguing for empathetic communication of statistical insights.

An introduction to data analysis for social science using R, praised as a practical and accessible textbook for beginners.

A blog post illustrating how relying solely on the mean can be misleading when evaluating performance improvements, using synthetic latency data to show the importance of looking at the full distribution via percentiles, density plots, and CDFs.

Tesla reports that its FSD Supervised system is over 5.2 times safer than manual driving based on 65 million kilometers driven in 5 EU countries over the last 4 months.

Roman Vershynin's textbook 'High-Dimensional Probability' second edition is available as a free PDF download from the author's website, targeting doctoral students and researchers in data science.