Forecasting the AI buildout: the case for building faster

The AI boom will destroy capital, kill entry-level jobs, and make the powerful more powerful. We should build faster anyway. We're an AI native research and forecasting firm and this is our first report, a forecast of the AI buildout to 2030. There is a real cost to building faster. By our estimate there's going to be $3.8 trillion of AI capex from 2023-2030, most of which will probably be unprofitable. Some companies will fail, some data centers will sell for well below construction cost, and some investors will lose money. Adoption of AI will also cause a big reduction in hiring, specially early career roles. We still think the benefits far outweigh this. We forecast both worlds for 2027-2030. If we build fast, people get frontier intelligence faster and cheaper, new opportunities get created, science goes faster, and humans live in a world of abundance. The slow world gets most of the costs anyways, it just gets less of the upside. So we should go fast, and let investors take the losses, and accept the change in the labor market, because the best outcome for the world is abundant intelligence, cheap and everywhere. Our full forecast of both worlds is here: https://hunchfox.substack.com/p/the-cost-of-abundance-ai-2030