@levie: The average strongly held belief these days in AI has a half life of 6 months at best. Here are just a few the industry…
Summary
The article highlights how strongly held beliefs in the AI industry change rapidly, with opinions frequently reversing, emphasizing the need for flexible thinking amid constant evolution.
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Cached at: 08/29/26, 07:50 AM
The average strongly held belief these days in AI has a half life of 6 months at best. Here are just a few the industry has cycled through and probably has no consensus on at the moment:
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OSS is too far behind to catch up
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The labs can’t be profitable at scale
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All software will be replaced by agents
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You can’t build moats on top of models
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Cheaper models will mean less compute
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You don’t need evals
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RAG is dead
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AI will decimate engineering jobs
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Prompting won’t matter in the future
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We’ve hit a training wall
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Frontier models are too dangerous to release
…and dozens and dozens more. The key here is to remain flexible in your thinking because we’re going to be in a constant state of change for a while.
Jack Altman (@jaltma): One of the most important things to know about this AI cycle is that no one knows what they’re talking and even very smart and plugged in people are continually reversing their opinions and then re-reversing them three months later.
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