@FinanceYF5: BlackRock compares the internet bubble era with today's AI boom
Summary
BlackRock compares the current AI boom to the internet bubble era, analyzing market similarities and differences.
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Cached at: 07/13/26, 08:05 PM
BlackRock compared the Internet bubble era with today’s AI boom https://t.co/8YmcAbdFPH
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@oragnes: Spot on! Tech fund giant Gavin Baker completely dismantles the so-called 'AI bubble' from an extremely sharp perspective. Don't scare people with the 2000 internet crash. Back then, it was crazy debt, with 99% of fiber optics lying idle; today's AI infrastructure is all backed by hard cash flow, with every GPU running at full throttle.
Tech fund giant Gavin Baker analyzes the AI bubble from a unique perspective, arguing that current AI infrastructure is backed by cash flow and GPUs are operating at full capacity, unlike the 2000 internet bubble, and that TSMC's capacity constraints are key to preventing the bubble from collapsing.
@TaoRay: Yes, a few weeks ago, when AI upstream hardware was at its peak of hype, I asserted against the trend on Space that "the market inflection point is coming, the upstream falls, the downstream eats its fill, it's time to position in software cash cows." The market indeed developed that way. I have a very important observation: "In recent years, the increase of retail investors and speculative funds in the market will increase the amplitude of volatility, but on the contrary..."
The author recalls the previous prediction of the inflection point in AI upstream hardware hype, believes that the market will see sector rotation with downstream software benefiting, and points out that the increase in retail investors will amplify volatility but make the pattern more certain.
@FinanceYF5: 1/ a16z four charts in a week: AI is repricing everything. Manufacturing reshoring, American drinking habits, search clicks, SaaS stock prices - four seemingly unrelated things point to the same divergence. Those who can't tell an AI story are being left behind.
a16z released four charts showing that AI is reshaping manufacturing reshoring, drinking trends, search clicks, and SaaS stock prices, indicating that companies unable to tell an AI story are being left behind.
@FinanceYF5: Nailed the AI play, but couldn't survive the leverage 1/ A fund that bet on the AI wave and returned 439% in the first half of the year plunged 67% in July, eventually forced to sell most of its stock portfolio to Citadel. Leopold Aschenbrenner may have been right about the long-term demand for AI infrastructure, but he couldn't hold on until the demand...
A fund that bet on AI and returned 439% in the first half of the year lost 67% in July and was forced to sell most of its portfolio to Citadel, illustrating the risk that even correct long-term AI bets can fail due to leverage and timing.
@TaoRay: The recent market trend is very healthy! It also confirms my view over the past few weeks: a turning point is coming, AI development and investment have entered a new stage, where "the upstream falls, the downstream benefits," creating new room for imagination. From institutions suggesting OpenAI go public next year, to Samsung's earnings beating expectations yesterday, but the upstream saw a sharp correction while software cash cows accelerated their rise. What I predicted earlier...
The author comments that recent market trends align with their previous predictions, believing AI development has entered a new phase where the upstream corrects and the downstream software benefits, reaffirming confidence in the second-half trend.