@TaoRay: Why has Castle dumped the young stock god's bloody chips? Is AI investment about to reverse? According to the 'two stages, three steps' investment mantra, what important nodes should we watch for now? Last week, I accurately predicted that the US would make a big move to prop up government bonds, and I said that the big move would be a flash in the pan. It has now fully validated my judgment on the macroeconomic underlying logic…
Summary
This article explores why Castle sold off stocks, questions the potential reversal in AI investment, and uses macroeconomic analysis to forecast US bond policy and Chinese stimulus measures.
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@TaoRay: The recent market trend is very healthy! It also confirms my view over the past few weeks: a turning point is coming, AI development and investment have entered a new stage, where "the upstream falls, the downstream benefits," creating new room for imagination. From institutions suggesting OpenAI go public next year, to Samsung's earnings beating expectations yesterday, but the upstream saw a sharp correction while software cash cows accelerated their rise. What I predicted earlier...
The author comments that recent market trends align with their previous predictions, believing AI development has entered a new phase where the upstream corrects and the downstream software benefits, reaffirming confidence in the second-half trend.
@TaoRay: Yes, a few weeks ago, when AI upstream hardware was at its peak of hype, I asserted against the trend on Space that "the market inflection point is coming, the upstream falls, the downstream eats its fill, it's time to position in software cash cows." The market indeed developed that way. I have a very important observation: "In recent years, the increase of retail investors and speculative funds in the market will increase the amplitude of volatility, but on the contrary..."
The author recalls the previous prediction of the inflection point in AI upstream hardware hype, believes that the market will see sector rotation with downstream software benefiting, and points out that the increase in retail investors will amplify volatility but make the pattern more certain.
@FinanceYF5: Nailed the AI play, but couldn't survive the leverage 1/ A fund that bet on the AI wave and returned 439% in the first half of the year plunged 67% in July, eventually forced to sell most of its stock portfolio to Citadel. Leopold Aschenbrenner may have been right about the long-term demand for AI infrastructure, but he couldn't hold on until the demand...
A fund that bet on AI and returned 439% in the first half of the year lost 67% in July and was forced to sell most of its portfolio to Citadel, illustrating the risk that even correct long-term AI bets can fail due to leverage and timing.
@viviennaBTC: The core argument of this article complements some foundations of my previous "cyclical stock selection method". Our shared view is that the true moat is not the AI model, nor the prompts from celebrity investors, but the underlying "wiring" — how you connect real data, disciplined mathematics, and agents together. The ar…
This article compares two investment methodologies, emphasizing that the true moat is the underlying data wiring rather than AI models, and demonstrates how a four-layer engineering stack from real data to AI agents complements a top-down cyclical stock selection framework.
@TaoRay: We have officially entered the second half of 2026. At the beginning of this year, I gave my first Space on investing (you can go back and check it out), where I was bullish on US stocks and Japanese stocks. Indeed, the gains were substantial. Now we will look ahead to the second half. I believe everyone has seen the news that institutions are urging OpenAI to go public next year instead, because they think the market environment will be better than in the second half...
TaoRay analyzes the reasons why institutions are pushing OpenAI to go public in 2027 instead of the second half of 2026, explores Wall Street's assessment of market cycles and the sustainability of AI capital expenditure, and invites members to participate in an in-depth discussion.