@FinanceYF5: 1/ Airbnb isn't dead yet, but it might have already started the countdown. A host who has been running Airbnb since 201…

1/ Airbnb isn’t dead yet, but it might have already started the countdown.

A host who has been running Airbnb since 2012, with a high-end short-term rental portfolio now generating nearly $1M in monthly revenue, completely changed his assessment of the company after using an AI Agent for the first time.

He believes the market has overlooked a survival crisis that Airbnb is facing 👇

2/ 他曾长期看好 Airbnb，但平台正在把房东端的强制佣金提高到 15.5%。

现在预订度假房源，用户必须进入封闭的平台，并支付越来越高的中介费用。

Hark、Dot、Muse、Grok Bot 等 AI Agent，可能会绕过这堵墙。

3/ After the user confirms the house they want to book, they just need to ask the Agent:

“What is the cheapest way to book this house?”

The Agent can directly query the property management system’s API, find the same listing, and complete the direct booking, allowing the landlord and guest to bypass approximately 15% of the platform fees.

4/ Airbnb 的商业模式，很大程度上依赖把房源锁在封闭界面中。

但 AI Agent 可以自动搜索房源、验证评价、协商条件，再与房源运营方直接完成预订。

当这些能力成熟后，Airbnb 的“围墙花园”会开始不断漏水。

5/ 他的判断是：

未来 24–36 个月，Airbnb 的增长速度将明显放缓；五年内，甚至可能出现负增长。

AI Agent 不只是优化预订流程，它正在削弱平台作为交易入口的价值。

6/ 受到冲击的不会只有 Airbnb。

任何缺少独家供给、商品或服务在平台之外同样可以买到的在线市场，都可能面对相同问题。

当 Agent 能替用户跨平台搜索并直接交易，中间商依赖信息差和入口控制收取的费用，都会重新接受市场检验。

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Here are some rumors that someone has heard. First about Google, then about Anthropic and OpenAI.

Google: Insiders say that Google has either already achieved RSI (recursive self-improvement) or is very close. In the past few months, their progress has clearly accelerated, jumping from GPT-5 level to Opus 5.5 level in just a few months. There’s speculation that RSI was the key to achieving this leap.

Anthropic: About a week ago, Anthropic launched a new round of pre-training. This isn’t Fable 5.5, but a project that could become Fable 6, or even a stronger model in the future, aimed at catching up to OpenAI’s Bel.

OpenAI: Bel (or possibly another codename) is the model behind OpenAI’s mathematical research breakthrough announced a few days ago, and it’s said that RSI played a role in it as well.

Based on what he’s heard, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are all very close to achieving RSI, or may have already done so.

The next developments will be both frightening and exciting.