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Elon Musk responded to Kalshi prediction markets, stating that if the question is rephrased as 'useful output of the US economy,' then over 50% growth by 2030 due to superintelligence is extremely likely, barring a major war.
Bill Gates warns that AI is powerful enough to cause a billion deaths, as reported in a Polymarket post.
A new stats tab feature has been introduced on the Polymarket platform, receiving positive feedback for its quality.
Polymarket's rapid expansion has left security gaps that fraudsters are exploiting, raising concerns about the platform's integrity and oversight.
Polymarket rolls out squads feature for social trading in group chats, making user interaction more integrated and lively.
Polymarket predictions indicate a 72% chance that AI will solve another millennium problem by 2026, with the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture being the most likely and P=NP the least likely.
Trump has promised a $5,000 dividend to every American adult if Republicans hold both the House and Senate, with a 16% chance predicted on Kalshi.
Polymarket welcomes users to their headquarters, suggesting a possible event or announcement related to the platform.
Former congressman George Santos received a lifetime ban and fine from prediction market platform Kalshi for insider trading and market manipulation related to prediction contracts.
A user on Polymarket has a 3-0 win streak with 100% accuracy, making over $166K in profit within days, and placed a large bet on a UFC fight.
A tweet promotes using DG3 Terminal to identify betting edges on Polymarket for a LaLiga football match, specifically Alavés Over 0.5 against Getafe.
A state judge has ordered Kalshi, a prediction market platform, to cease offering sports bets and other wagers in Washington, citing violations of state gambling and consumer protection laws. Kalshi argues it is regulated by the CFTC and exempt from state laws, sparking ongoing legal disputes.
A user shares a public tracker of the most profitable Polymarket sports traders, whose combined PnL exceeds $52M, allowing others to follow their trades in real time.
A trader placed a $5,000 bet on the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September, illustrating how platforms like Kalshi allow trading on the probability of economic events rather than just the outcomes.
A tweet discusses a theory about recognizing historic moments, followed by Polymarket quoting Sam Altman declaring humanity is in the singularity.
French regulator ANJ has classified Polymarket as illegal gambling, ordered ISPs to block it, and is now targeting users and intermediaries like VPNs. The platform still saw 205k French users in June, setting a precedent for EU regulation of prediction markets.
OKX reportedly ran a successful World Cup prediction market with 430,000 participants and $4.19M in rewards, processing 136M transactions on X Layer with sub-100ms latency, indicating readiness for more prediction markets.
A report reveals that 14 out of the top 20 wallets on the prediction market platform Polymarket are bots, and none can verify their track record, raising concerns about manipulation and transparency.
Polymarket's offshore Panama entity, Adventure One QSS, may have had employees working from the US despite a CFTC settlement barring such activities, raising compliance questions.
Kalshi's surveillance flagged and referred trades by Trump's teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez, who allegedly used inside information to win over $100,000 betting on what Trump would say during speeches, highlighting ongoing insider trading concerns in prediction markets.