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The paper introduces FABench, a scalable backtesting environment for forecasting agents with an automated pipeline that discovers events, generates questions, and resolves outcomes to avoid training-cutoff leakage. Evaluating agents on eight recent models, it finds retrieval consistently improves Brier scores and lifts leading agents to Polymarket market consensus, while revealing recurring evidence-weighting failures.
A Chinese engineering student set up a weather tracking station consisting of three Mac Minis in his dorm room, using Claude to analyze real-time aviation-grade weather data, identify discrepancies with prediction market prices, and automatically place trades, earning over $100,000 in total profits.
Recommends three free, open-source Polymarket trading bots (CloddsBot, Smart Money Copy Trading, Polymarket LP Tool), along with referral and copy-trading links.
Kalshi raised an additional $1B at a $40B valuation to expand into stocks, compute, indices, and institutional offerings, as co-founder Tarek Mansour reflects on the company's journey from YC to building a regulated prediction market.
Polymarket 暂停其国际平台交易约一小时，原因是第三方软件供应商 DebugBear 遭入侵，导致约 265 万美元加密货币被盗，公司承诺全额赔付受影响用户。
Polymarket暂停其旗舰国际平台交易，因第三方供应商被入侵导致约700个账户被盗约270万美元。交易已恢复，公司承诺对受影响交易者进行全额赔偿。
The Trump administration's CFTC sued Utah to block the state's gambling ban from shutting down Kalshi, making Utah the 10th state the agency has sued over prediction market regulation. The case centers on whether federal authority over CFTC-registered event contracts preempt state gambling laws.
The NBA announced preferred prediction market partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket, an expanded DraftKings deal, and an integrity framework with the CFTC, despite ongoing gambling scandals involving players and coaches.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued an October 20 memo warning Pentagon and military leaders against placing prediction-market bets using nonpublic information, saying such wagers could leak operational clues to adversaries and put troops at risk.
A post comments on a Kalshi prediction-market item claiming Elon Musk will give one $SPCX share to every American child next year, with a 75% odds on a Tesla-SpaceX merge before 2028. The author praises it as a better alternative to philanthropic foundations.
Kalshi 报道 Anthropic 称 AI 或将推动美国 GDP 到 2030 年达 44 万亿美元，并称今年 IPO 概率为 70%。这则消息融合了 AI 宏观经济预测与市场对 Anthropic 上市的押注。
Polymarket 通过其品牌电竞账号运营了一项付费引用转发计划，雇佣 800 多名社交媒体用户以加密货币支付报酬，并在内部 Discord 中要求帖子看起来“自然”，引发对预测市场营销手段的调查报道。
A WIRED investigation reveals that Polymarket's Ethiopia and Romania election markets saw over $600 million in anomalous trading volume after outcomes were effectively settled, with evidence of coordinated account pairs engaging in what experts call volume manipulation, prompting Polymarket to block the offending accounts.
WIRED 报道称，Polymarket 上两个全球大选相关市场在选举结果早已尘埃落定后仍产生了超过 6 亿美元的交易量，其中大部分为疑似 wash trading（对敲交易），涉及埃塞俄比亚和罗马尼亚的选举市场。Polymarket 表示已标记并封禁相关账户。
CZ posted a lighthearted tweet reacting to a Predict.fun promotion offering $250,000 in rewards tied to the League of Legends World Championship starting October 15.
用户发现了一个名为 SideSignal 的预测市场平台，允许 AI 代理自主创建市场、用 USDC 下注并领取赔款，无需等待他人上架市场，且通过 YES/NO 资金池运作，无需专职做市商。
Former U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln, who warned in 2010 that prediction markets could be abused for gambling, now lobbies for Kalshi to loosen CFTC rules allowing sports event contracts, earning $480,000 from the firm since 2024.
作者基于 OpenAI 新发布的 Decisions API 构建了一个开源实验工具，将 OpenAI Decisions (gpt-6-luna)、TypeSafe 的 Jev 和 Cloudflare 的 Clef 三个决策模型放在 Polymarket/Kalshi 预测市场上下文中对比推理表现，发现模型会直接抄市场概率，且三者更新行为差异明显。
An NPR report details how a self-excluded sports bettor turned to prediction market app Kalshi after bankruptcy, reigniting his gambling addiction as experts warn prediction markets are drawing in problem gamblers with bonus offers and weaker safeguards than traditional sportsbooks.
Verifact Markets, a new startup funded by Positron Capital Management, launched a novel "prediction market for disputed facts" where users wager true or false on already-occurred controversial events such as the origins of Covid-19 and the Apollo 11 moon landing.