@xizhe_chan: Yesterday a friend asked me: why did he follow my bearish view and lose money? I said: I clearly wrote short-term bullish. The reason is simple— First, there is a guaranteed $20 billion in index fund forced buying within two weeks. (Detailed analysis in the article, Nasdaq and FTSE Russell) But the float is only about $80 billion (...

Yesterday a friend asked me: why did he follow my bearish view and end up losing money?

I said: I clearly wrote that I’m bullish in the short term.

The reason is simple —

First, there’s a confirmed $20 billion in index fund forced buying over the next two weeks. (Detailed analysis in the article, Nasdaq and FTSE Russell)

But the free float is only about **80 billion** (2 trillion market cap × 4% free float).

That translates to a floor of 20% upside, i.e., a stock price of $190.

There’s an even more clever mechanism:

A clause in the S-1 prospectus — before the Q2 earnings report, as long as the stock price trades above $175.50 for half the trading days, employees can unlock an additional 10% of their equity.

In other words, insiders themselves have the incentive to keep the stock price above $175.

And there’s an even scarier point:

The expected multiplier effect. The two things above will become a given fact, further amplifying public expectations, which corresponds to a frenzy of capital inflows.

So we can’t estimate the upside limit, but at least we can give a 2x to 3x amplification effect. The corresponding funds are 2 × $20 billion or 3 × $20 billion, i.e., 40–60 billion. By that calculation, the stock price would have to go to $240.

A bit crazy. (All of the above are predictions. In actual trading, you have to take it step by step, but I personally went in with high leverage at the opening price of $160, haha.)

Owen Chen (Xizhe) (@xizhe_chan): SpaceX is the largest IPO in history, with extremely complex price games and valuation logic behind it. On June 12, 2026, SpaceX landed on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at an IPO price of $135, closing its first day at $161, up about 19%, with a market cap exceeding $2 trillion, making it the largest IPO in human history.