The measured productivity gain from AI is 7.8%, not 10x, and I think that gap explains the backlash

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Summary

A measured 7.8% productivity gain from AI across hundreds of engineers contradicts the 10x hype, with many gains fading, fueling backlash over benefits not being shared with workers.

Operator perspective. I use AI daily across three companies and I am bullish on it, but the gap between what gets shouted on stage and what the data shows is enormous. Best measured number across hundreds of engineers is about 7.8%, and 66% of the people who hit a peak gain saw it fade the next quarter. At the same time, people are being pushed onto it under threat of their jobs while the return is not even proven to the people mandating it. My read is the anger is not really “AI is bad,” it is “my boss profits from me using it and I do not.” Where do you land - is the resistance cognitive (it erodes skill) or economic (the gain is not shared)?
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