@paonx_eth: a while back i posted about the quant who made $1.29M on Polymarket running Jane Street's playbook he's now at $1,948,8…

X AI KOLs Timeline 08/04/26, 04:11 PM News

Summary

A tweet highlights a Polymarket trader who has made ~$1.95M across 20,691 predictions by buying heavily discounted Bitcoin contracts, applying institutional market-making strategies (Jane Street style) to prediction markets.

a while back i posted about the quant who made $1.29M on Polymarket running Jane Street's playbook he's now at $1,948,806 across 20,691 predictions his profile: https://polymarket.com/@justdance?tab=activity&via=paon-guioner-yazy… here's the part most people miss: he's not guessing the next candle. look at where the money actually came from: Bitcoin to $150K by Dec 31 -> bought YES at 0.8c -> +$63,047 (2,370%) Bitcoin to dip to $70K -> bought YES at 4c -> +$53,625 (700%) Bitcoin to $100K in November -> bought YES at 2.7c -> +$86,105 (524%) every one of those is a contract the crowd had already written off. sub-5c means the market gave it almost no chance that's the whole system he's not predicting -> he's finding the spots where the price says 1% and the math says 5%, then buying it tiny edge, repeated until it becomes real money same principle Jane Street runs at scale, pointed at a market anyone can open save this and go read his closed positions yourself. the pattern is right there in the numbers

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Cached at: 08/05/26, 10:22 AM

a while back i posted about the quant who made $1.29M on Polymarket running Jane Street’s playbook

he’s now at $1,948,806 across 20,691 predictions

his profile: https://polymarket.com/@justdance?tab=activity&via=paon-guioner-yazy…

here’s the part most people miss:

he’s not guessing the next candle. look at where the money actually came from:

Bitcoin to $150K by Dec 31 -> bought YES at 0.8c -> +$ 63,047 (2,370%)

Bitcoin to dip to $70K -> bought YES at 4c -> +$ 53,625 (700%)

Bitcoin to $100K in November -> bought YES at 2.7c -> +$ 86,105 (524%)

every one of those is a contract the crowd had already written off. sub-5c means the market gave it almost no chance

that’s the whole system

he’s not predicting -> he’s finding the spots where the price says 1% and the math says 5%, then buying it

tiny edge, repeated until it becomes real money

same principle Jane Street runs at scale, pointed at a market anyone can open

save this and go read his closed positions yourself. the pattern is right there in the numbers

@justdance on Polymarket

Source: https://polymarket.com/@justdance?tab=activity&via=paon-guioner-yazy ## Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?No

93.9¢

21,155.2 shares

93.9¢

96.8¢

$20,478\.22$ 615.00 (3.1%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?No

93.9¢

21,155.2shares

$20,478\.22$ 615.00 (3.1%)

## Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?No

89.5¢

16,616.3 shares

89.5¢

96¢

$15,943\.39$ 1,063.56 (7.15%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?No

89.5¢

16,616.3shares

$15,943\.39$ 1,063.56 (7.15%)

## Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?No

95¢

14,871.3 shares

95¢

97.6¢

$14,506\.94$ 386.31 (2.74%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?No

95¢

14,871.3shares

$14,506\.94$ 386.31 (2.74%)

## Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No

80.7¢

14,957.2 shares

80.7¢

84.5¢

$12,638\.87$ 568.94 (4.71%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No

80.7¢

14,957.2shares

$12,638\.87$ 568.94 (4.71%)

## Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No

75¢

14,702.2 shares

75¢

75.5¢

$11,100\.15$ 67.38 (0.61%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No

75¢

14,702.2shares

$11,100\.15$ 67.38 (0.61%)

## Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No

88.9¢

10,100.3 shares

88.9¢

95.4¢

$9,630\.67$ 646.19 (7.19%)

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No

88.9¢

10,100.3shares

$9,630\.67$ 646.19 (7.19%)

## Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?No

89.6¢

9,910.9 shares

89.6¢

96.2¢

$9,529\.29$ 644.61 (7.26%)

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?No

89.6¢

9,910.9shares

$9,529\.29$ 644.61 (7.26%)

## Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?No

83.4¢

9,078.3 shares

83.4¢

92.5¢

$8,397\.39$ 822.00 (10.85%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?No

83.4¢

9,078.3shares

$8,397\.39$ 822.00 (10.85%)

## Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?No

90.7¢

7,785.5 shares

90.7¢

95.8¢

$7,454\.57$ 395.44 (5.6%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?No

90.7¢

7,785.5shares

$7,454\.57$ 395.44 (5.6%)

## Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?No

96.2¢

7,273.2 shares

96.2¢

98.2¢

$7,138\.61$ 139.18 (1.99%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?No

96.2¢

7,273.2shares

$7,138\.61$ 139.18 (1.99%)

## Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?No

89.7¢

7,113.1 shares

89.7¢

98.5¢

$7,002\.86$ 619.87 (9.71%)

Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?No

89.7¢

7,113.1shares

$7,002\.86$ 619.87 (9.71%)

## Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No

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6,542.7 shares

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96.4¢

$6,303\.92$ 265.96 (4.4%)

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No

92.3¢

6,542.7shares

$6,303\.92$ 265.96 (4.4%)

## Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?No

89.9¢

5,777.8 shares

89.9¢

96.6¢

$5,581\.38$ 386.44 (7.44%)

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?No

89.9¢

5,777.8shares

$5,581\.38$ 386.44 (7.44%)

## Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?Yes

48.6¢

10,412.7 shares

48.6¢

52.5¢

$5,466\.67$ 403.46 (7.97%)

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?Yes

48.6¢

10,412.7shares

$5,466\.67$ 403.46 (7.97%)

## Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No

42.5¢

11,389.6 shares

42.5¢

45.5¢

$5,182\.26$ 344.87 (7.13%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No

42.5¢

11,389.6shares

$5,182\.26$ 344.87 (7.13%)

## Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No

89.9¢

5,377.5 shares

89.9¢

95.5¢

$5,135\.51$ 303.44 (6.28%)

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No

89.9¢

5,377.5shares

$5,135\.51$ 303.44 (6.28%)

## Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?No

93¢

3,367.4 shares

93¢

98.2¢

$3,305\.06$ 174.10 (5.56%)

Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?No

93¢

3,367.4shares

$3,305\.06$ 174.10 (5.56%)

## Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No

61.4¢

4,922.8 shares

61.4¢

64¢

$3,150\.58$ 129.03 (4.27%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No

61.4¢

4,922.8shares

$3,150\.58$ 129.03 (4.27%)

## Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?No

91.6¢

2,371.8 shares

91.6¢

97.4¢

$2,308\.95$ 135.93 (6.26%)

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?No

91.6¢

2,371.8shares

$2,308\.95$ 135.93 (6.26%)

## Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?No

88¢

2,368.8 shares

88¢

94.5¢

$2,238\.49$ 153.97 (7.39%)

Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?No

88¢

2,368.8shares

$2,238\.49$ 153.97 (7.39%)

Paone (@paonx_eth): this quant made $1,293,914 trading Bitcoin up-or-down using a system reverse-engineered from Jane Street’s own playbook

remember my last post on the Jane Street quant whose code makes the fund $75,000 a minute?

this guy rebuilt that logic for himself

his profile:

@paonx_eth: a while back i posted about the quant who made $1.29M on Polymarket running Jane Street's playbook he's now at $1,948,8…

@justdance on Polymarket

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