@TaoRay: Many friends asked me about Tesla. I estimate I haven't touched it for about a year, and I won't touch Tesla again. From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla's stock price has an opportunity for oversold bounce. But the fundamentals are not optimistic. According to the earnings call, most new Tesla buyers in North America are buying for self-driving. On the surface, this is...

Many friends have asked me about Tesla. I estimate I haven’t touched it in about a year, and I won’t touch it again. From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla’s stock price has the chance for a rebound after being oversold. But the fundamentals are not optimistic. Based on the content of the earnings call, most new Tesla owners in North America are buying the car for its self-driving capabilities. On the surface, this seems like good news, but in reality, it’s not. Recently, I did some research, and many companies have made breakthrough progress in autonomous driving. So the period when Tesla had the market to itself will soon come to an end. Just think — when Toyota and BYD both have comparable self-driving technology, prices will be driven down to rock-bottom. Especially since China has made significant breakthroughs in this area.

In recent years, China has made massive investments and brought in talent in this field at the national level, and results are already emerging. I have seen this firsthand. Moreover, looking at various large models, we cannot underestimate China’s R&D capabilities in mature AI fields. The U.S. Department of Commerce estimates that in the AI model space, the U.S. only leads China by one year — and this is under the premise of continued chip hardware and computing power advantages that bottleneck China. Autonomous driving is primarily a civilian technology and doesn’t involve that much privacy. Going forward, if autonomous driving is tied to the strong export momentum of Chinese cars, the West will also find it hard to erect barriers. Even if it can’t enter the U.S. market in the short term, or the technology isn’t as mature as Tesla’s, it will still affect Tesla’s stock price premium.

As for humanoid robots, several core technologies have not even made breakthroughs in the lab before commercialization, so they remain far off.

Of course, before the market fully realizes that Tesla no longer has a monopoly, there is still room for stock price speculation. But I will no longer take the risk. As for the merger of SpaceX and Tesla, I can assert unequivocally: it is absolutely impossible unless Tesla’s stock price drops to rock-bottom, Tesla is valued like an ordinary automaker, and SpaceX becomes a startup with no profitability.