macroeconomics

BofA Global Research warns that a sustained correction in the AI trade poses a major risk to the global economy, as data-center backlash becomes a ballot issue in 10 states ahead of the midterm vote. Meanwhile, data-center construction spending hits record levels and big tech capex nears $800 billion this year.

U.S. workers' labor share of national income fell to 52.8% in Q2 2026, the lowest since BLS records began in 1947, even as corporate profits and GDP soar. Economists point to automation and AI-driven jobless growth as key drivers, warning of a widening K-shaped economy.

Goldman Sachs经济学家Jan Hatzius认为AI对美国经济增长的推动将在2026年底至2027年初见顶，而Apollo首席经济学家Torsten Slok指出除大型科技公司外，AI尚未为其他企业带来任何财务回报。

Kalshi 报道 Anthropic 称 AI 或将推动美国 GDP 到 2030 年达 44 万亿美元，并称今年 IPO 概率为 70%。这则消息融合了 AI 宏观经济预测与市场对 Anthropic 上市的押注。

Cathie Wood (ARK CEO) argues AI could trigger the biggest acceleration in global growth since the Industrial Revolution, potentially raising real GDP growth fivefold to ~15%, while IMF forecasts remain skeptical, finding little measurable impact on productivity, wages, or jobs so far.

A tech investor outlines four structural issues facing China's tech and startup sector: Hong Kong stock risks, theme rotation under the 15th Five-Year Plan, a hesitating global AI narrative favoring U.S. equities, and macroeconomic downturn pressures.

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry is raising his timeline for an AI market crash, expanding short positions with put options on Nvidia, Palantir, Oracle, and the Nasdaq 100, arguing that heavy AI spending and circular dealmaking could cause the bubble to burst within a year.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius told CNBC that softer-than-expected inflation could lessen the need for further Fed tightening, while AI's gradual productivity gains continue to shape the economic outlook.

The S&P 500 is near a record high, but excluding AI companies, the index is down 5% since late August, highlighting how concentrated market gains are in AI-linked stocks.

The AI boom is driving up its own cost of capital as hyperscalers' massive bond issuance pushes up borrowing spreads and contributes to higher Treasury yields, turning the physical infrastructure bottleneck into a financing bottleneck. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that AI-driven fundraising partly explains elevated Treasury yields.

The article argues that transformative AI could lead to higher interest rates by increasing demand for capital through high-return investments, potentially crowding out traditional projects and causing inflation during the buildout phase.

Global bond sell-offs signal concerns over persistent inflation driven by structural economic shifts like protectionism and geopolitical tensions, with AI potentially providing a disinflationary boost through productivity gains.

An interview with Dwarkesh Patel and Semi Analysis discusses the AI capex boom and its potential to cause a sovereign debt crisis in the late 2020s.

This article explores why Castle sold off stocks, questions the potential reversal in AI investment, and uses macroeconomic analysis to forecast US bond policy and Chinese stimulus measures.

The paper introduces DRACP, a conformal prediction method that unifies multiple adaptation mechanisms for reliable economic forecast intervals under distribution shifts, achieving calibration with wider intervals.

Long-term government bond yields in global developed economies have climbed to multi-decade highs, traditionally viewed as a warning sign of fiscal apprehensions, yet the AI surge has amplified this movement this time.

Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya believes the current high-interest-rate environment is a necessary 'wake-up call' for the tech industry. Early-stage venture capital has historically performed best during periods of rising interest rates. The two major drivers for the next decade are the marginal costs of energy and computing approaching zero.